Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

St. Catharines

Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:15:00

Constituency Profile



Braniff, Michele

Falardeau, Judi

Goddard, Michael

Madill, Ryan

Mcdonald, Keith

O'Donnell, J. Justin

Simon, Rin

Sorrento, Sal

Stevens, Jennie

Jennie Stevens

Population (2016):

Population (2011):110596

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,809 41.20%
13,386 29.32%
11,231 24.60%
1,751 3.84%
OTHERS 475 1.04%
Total Transposed 45,652
      Component Riding(s)

St. Catharines
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chris Bittle **
Krystina Waler
Dennis Van Meer
Travis Mason
Allan DeRoo

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chris Bittle
Rick Dykstra **
Susan Erskine-Fournier
Jim Fannon
Saleh Waziruddin


29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Looks like a quality race here for the top 3 parties, could be anyone's race but I think NDPer Jennie Stevens will win.
28/05/2022 STC
Throughout the riding it is obvious people want a change. Stories about the incumbent never wanting to help constituents, ect. Ontario still remembers McGuibty so the riding will go blue.
27/05/2022 Eric
Said in last post could be slight lean PC ... but if the NDP stay within 3-4 points of Liberals province wide, probably means that left-of-centre vote in St. Catharines is more consolidated with the orange ... PCs might hold their own but with New Blue and Ontario parties they are probably not going to grow their support ... it really could go either orange or blue ... my guess is that the NDP may still be a few points back of the Liberals on June 2nd province wide, which means a razor thin margin here ... Jennie Stevens by 50 votes over the PC if I had to guess ... could just as easily be wrong ...
25/05/2022 ME
In St Catherines today ....to get my snow tires changed and walked for blocks in several direction...NDP signs were by far the most dominant...She is going to carry the riding and the PC's will come up short
24/05/2022 seasaw
While this has not been a traditional NDP riding, nor a traditional PC or Liberal riding, prior to last election, the last time that they voted an incumbent out was over 60 years ago. Jennie Stevens has the incumbency advantage in a riding that rarely votes an incumbent out. NDP hold
22/05/2022 The Watcher
This is not a traditional NDP riding, and not even a traditional Liberal riding as it was a Jim Bradley riding first and foremost and he's no longer in the picture provincially. If the Liberals are up in the polls, that will peel votes away from the NDP allowing Sal to come up the middle for the Tories. That's just the way the math works on this. Wouldn't be the first time St. Catharines has been the victim of vote splitting, though it will be the first time provincially in over a generation.
22/05/2022 CD
It's important to note that the Liberals appear to be around 10% up province wide vs 2018. When applied to this riding, that swing should put them back on top in this seat.
18/05/2022 prog15
Niagara ridings are much softer NDP holds than urban parts of Kitchener-Waterloo or London, with more patterns of shifting political support between elections and less attachment by supporters than to the likes of Fife or Kernaghan. In principle, this should benefit the Liberals who, with an amicable candidate, may benefit from support shifting from a Tweedledum party if overall polling continues to go down for the Dippers. Yet, this possibly biggest chance for Lib pick-up from NDP in southwestern Ontario is still unlikely to happen - not just because of the incumbency, ABC vote and a pollaganda factor (riding-level polls are usually least reliable, but create a bandwagon effect nonetheless if not as powerful as province-wide polls). DelDuca Libs are so unpopular in the area due to strong anti-trucker stances (that the NDP somehow managed to avoid in spite of being about as repressive in nature) that they might well end up being third, most likely. If anything, it is the PCs who can benefit from NDP moderate decline and from a direct vote switch. Whether this happens, remains to be seen, but an ABC vote alignment behind Stevens does not seem to be a stronger trend, with Ford's pragmatic even if non-(socially or fiscally) conservative governance allowing him to grab votes in ridings like this, with fluidity of political support not anchored directly by a large progressivist university. If Gates is a bit too strong to be defeated in Niagara Falls, this riding offers a better prospects, with Niagara Centre in between the two. It should be TCTC now, yet the momentum seems to be with the PCs and if they are to pick up anything in midsize urban Ontario, this is their best shot, on probabilities. Lib vote stays the same, while some NDP switches to the PCs - the likeliest outcome.
16/05/2022 Garden City Watcher
Riding specific poll puts Stevens well ahead of her Liberal and PC challengers (by 12 points). Without Bradley in the race, even more of the anti-Ford vote has consolidated around the NDP. https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/11/riding-poll-ndp-headed-to-re-election-in-st-catharines/
15/05/2022 ME
So many running and splitting the vote the riding can be won with 32/33% which will go NDP
15/05/2022 Eric
Maybe a very slight lean PC ... was this riding a Liberal stronghold or a Jim Bradley stronghold? ... that's the question, as other posters here have noted, and I believe the evidence probably suggests the latter ... Mr. Bradley has, with the exception of 1975, continually been the Liberal candidate since 1967 until now ... so with him no longer on the ballot, it may be a wash for the Liberal candidate since that party is poised to do better provincially than 4 years ago ... PCs may not grow but the NDP will probably drop more, which may be enough to turn this riding blue for the first time in 47 years ...
13/05/2022 R.O.
But past liberal numbers here were based around the fact Jim Bradley was a well known and personally popular mpp. Del Duca made a visit to the riding but isn’t a well known party leader and Ryan Madill a first time candidate. It depends how much staying power the 2018 ndp class has , Horwath’s riding of Hamilton Centre is also geographically close to this city and they’ve held the nearby Niagara Centre riding for decades. Hasn’t been pc provincially since the 70’s but likely would of went pc in 95 if not for Bradley being mpp. But had been cpc federally so is some conservative voters here so still a tough one to call at this point.
10/05/2022 Finn
An ultimate 3 way race, but I have the edge to the Liberals here. Even in a disastrous year for the Liberals, they still managed 24.5% in this riding, which is only 12 points shy of the winning NDP. With the NDP falling dramatically in the polls, the Liberals should be able to take this, though there is a chance vote splitting in this riding causes the PCs to come up the middle and take this one too.
07/05/2022 Joshua W
St. Catharines is traditionally a Liberal riding both provincially and federally. The Liberal candidate for the June 2nd election is well known and has a lot of signs going up. I believe disgruntled Liberal voters from the last election will swing back from the NDP ensuring a Liberal victory this June.
03/05/2022 Tom Collins
This race will be very close however, I am calling it a Liberal victory with 35% of the vote. Jennie Stevens for the NDP, while a nice person, is not a strong voice for the riding. She will likely fall to third place.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
In what'll be a not-so-great-year for the PCs, I think this one will buck the trend with councillor Sal Sorrento popping up the middle between the Liberals and NDP.
14/04/22 A.S.
For all the "it was more a Jim Bradley riding than a Liberal riding" conventional wisdom, St. Kitts *is*, in modern-day terms, the most "Liberal" Niagara riding--that is, a big-city regional-hub kind of place with less of that Ford-ish rust-belt or white-trash or Jesus messing up the picture (and the presence of Brock U representing an educated-class anchor, even if the primary campus is in Niagara Centre). So while it was more of a happy bonus pickup for the NDP in '18 (though the party isn't *completely* devoid of recent provincial history here--S of the QEW went w/the Rae wave in '90), St. Kitts has got more of a foundation for *that* kind of modern-day Dipper support than it appears. So really--as validated through incumbency, it's not altogether inconceivable that it's likelier to stay within the NDP fold than Niagara Centre, or than a Wayne Gates-less Niagara Falls would be. And even w/o Jim Bradley, the Libs *could* be poised to split the opposition on Stevens' behalf. (Or not. But if they split the left on the Tories' behalf, well, that's the story of the election.)
07/04/22 Chris N
I'm surprised to see this as an "NDP pick," especially since the NDP won St. Catharines by a smaller margin than adjacent Niagara Centre, which is currently sitting as "Too Close To Call." The PCs only lost this riding by 3%, so it's certainly possible that it can flip blue come June.
31/03/22 KXS
I think this is TCTC between the NDP and PCs. NDP is polling lower than their 2018 result, which would make them vulnerable in a seat like this.
The PCs are running a two term city councillor and will probably target this seat along with Niagara Centre.
21/03/22 R.O.
Ndp mpp Jennie Stevens first elected here in 2018 in a close race against pc candidate Sandie Bellows who has since passed away. In election that also marked the end of the Jim Bradley era he had held the riding since late 70?¢â‚¬â„¢s. likely it would of flipped a few times over the years if not for his long span of service . As its been as a swing riding federally and flipped between liberals and conservatives a few times. New pc candidate is Sal Sorrento and liberals nominated Ryan Madill.
30/07/21 Cory
Without Jim Bradley on the ballot it's hard to see the Liberals win this riding back unless they're on the way to a majority win, which seems unlikely based on current polling.
For the first time in a long time, St. Catharines is the Niagara riding most-likely to flip after 40 years of always being the least-likely seat to flip in Niagara.
This riding is the best chance the Conservatives have to pick-up a seat in Niagara as Stevens is the weakest incumbent in the region.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Should be interesting to see what happens the first time Jim Bradley doesn't run here in over 40 years. Is it a naturally liberal seat, or was it just voting for Jim Bradley? Given the current regional numbers, this will likely be a NDP hold, though the liberal support could fall further and disperse to the conservatives potentially.

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