Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-08-14 12:26:00

Constituency Profile



Dolan, Anna

Jacob, Oliver A.

Macwilliams, Kade

O'Connor, Thomas

Reid, Murray

Stoll, Kurt

Yakabuski, John

John Yakabuski

Population (2016):

Population (2011):102537

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

7,897 19.11%
25,241 61.07%
5,978 14.46%
1,337 3.23%
OTHERS 881 2.13%
Total Transposed 41,334
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Cheryl Gallant **
Ruben Marini
Eileen Jones-Whyte
Ian Pineau
David Ainsworth
Dan Criger
Dheerendra Kumar
Robert Cherrin
Stefan Klietsch
Jonathan Davis

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Cheryl Gallant **
Jeff Lehoux
Hector Clouthier
Dan McCarthy
Stefan Klietsch


01/06/2022 Pure Whig
There will be no surprises in the direction this riding votes in 2022.
I'm mildly curious to see how the vote in Arnprior & McNab breaks down given the massive influx of new residents over the last two years. I Suspect that it might be hard to discern anything in the tea leaves this time though, given it's a PC/Ford year.
My biggest question - "Why would you describe Eastern Ontario as 613, show this riding in the map as Eastern Ontario, and yet list it as a northern riding????
That lacks any sense.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Looks like the Conway coming back rumors didn't come true. He may have made things interesting as he was the last Liberal MPP for this riding back in the Harris years. With Conway not running I think this riding will stay PC.
29/05/2022 seasaw
Well the Liberals have a candidate and it's not Sean Conway. So the PC's will easily hold on to this one.
20/05/2022 SN
I drove from Combermere to Ottawa via Round Lake and Cobden. If signage is indicative, the Liberals will do even worse than last time around, and the only thing that will keep Yak under 70% is if the NDP consolidates the left and Yak hemorrhages a decent chunk of his base to the right--not impossible given that the NDP finished a respectable second in sign count followed by the Ontario party in third and the New Blue in fourth. The Liberals were dead last by a mile up to Cobden, but on the 17/417 Corridor began to make up ground on both the Greens and New Blue. I think they were still dead last when I hit the county line, but at least close to the Greens.
While the seat is Yak's for as long as he wants, the fight to the right is significant. Cheryl was elected as one of two breakthrough Reform candidates, and if Ford goes for a third term after further ticking of the rural constituency, with a solid NDP base in place, something to the right, and if Yak opted not to run again, things could get really interesting. But that is the future.
07/05/2022 R.O.
Not sure where the idea of Sean Conway running again came from , never seen any articles online about that. The liberals just put out a news release saying Oliver Jacob was being nominated as there candidate for the riding. The ndp also selected a new candidate recently and running Kurt Stoll. Yakabuski been mpp for a long time , also big investments being made to 4 lane highway 17 between Renfrew and Arnprior a big issue in the southern part of the riding.
06/05/2022 seasaw
So far, the Liberals havenít picked a candidate yet, but if Sean Conway decides to run, this is one riding that will go Liberal. Seanís cousin, John Yakabusky, will not be campaigning as hard. Why would Conway want to run? Heís got over a quarter of a century in the Ontario Legislature, heís a very intelligent man, and given the state of the Ontario Liberal Party, thereís a good chance that theyíll finish third under their current leader. Their leader, no matter what he does, may not be able to shake his association with the Wynne government. So, if Conway enters the race, heíll be the perfect candidate for the next Ontario Liberal leader. Heís experienced, intelligent, photogenic, has held cabinet portfolios in a pretty good government and is in no way associated with the McGuinty-Wynne Liberals, so heís be the ideal premier. But we have to wait and see if he runs.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Safest PC seat in the province, easy hold.
21/04/22 A.S.
At this point, Sean Conway bidding for his old seat would come off as ill-starred as Ed Schreyer's federal comeback bid in 2006; the dynamics have changed too much. Though maybe the NDP as a future force could be monitored in light of Jodie Primeau's surprisingly strong 2nd place federal bid in '21 (and 4 points higher than the ONDP got in '18). I mean, under Yak, it *has* been the strongest or near-strongest PC seat in Ontario for several elections running--but who knows what tricks out of left field (never mind left wing) are up the opposition's sleeve should he ever retire...
20/03/22 R.O.
John Yakabuski has been mpp of this riding since 2003 , rural riding seems to have long term incumbents. Also more conservative than it was in years past. Liberals and ndp yet to nominate candidates here.
26/08/21 Jackie Agnew
This riding would be squarely in the PC column if it weren't for former longtime Liberal MPP Sean Conway expressing interest in reclaiming his old riding. It will be a very interesting race if incumbent MPP John Yakabuskie (Conway's second cousin) seeks re-elction in 2022. Stay tuned for a real nail-biter.
02/08/21 Sam
This was the most Tory riding in the province last time. As well as the favourable territory in this more resource-heavy, rural riding, John Yakabuski is a very strong incumbent in contrast with the underperforming Cheryl Gallant. I see a Tory win with or without him but a big Tory win with him.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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