Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Pickering-Uxbridge


Prediction Changed
2022-03-09 09:10:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Ahmed, Khalid

Bethlenfalvy, Peter

Dabbour, Abir

Daniyal, Ibrahim

Duboisky, Netalia

Robinson, Lisa

Rondinone, Julia

Syed, Hasan

Tallis, Elizabeth


Incumbent:
Peter Bethlenfalvy

Population (2016):

112947
Population (2011):109344


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

PETER BETHLENFALVY
22,44742.20%
NERISSA CARIÑO
17,03332.02%
IBRAHIM DANIYAL
10,85120.40%
ADAM NARRAWAY
2,1053.96%
BRENDAN REILLY
2730.51%
WILLIAM MYERS
1940.36%
NETALIA DUBOISKY
1110.21%
MICHELLE FRANCIS
960.18%
ERIC SIVADAS
830.16%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

21,425 47.17%
14,815 32.62%
6,742 14.84%
1,921 4.23%
OTHERS 515 1.13%
Total Transposed 45,418
      Component Riding(s)

Pickering-Scarborough East
(55.88% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Ajax-Pickering
(25.26% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Durham
(18.86% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Jennifer O'Connell **
32,38751.00%
Cyma Musarat
18,46229.10%
Eileen Higdon
7,58211.90%
Peter Forint
3,7996.00%
Corneliu Chisu
1,2652.00%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Jennifer O'Connell
29,75750.30%
Corneliu Chisu **
22,59138.20%
Pamela Downward
5,4469.20%
Anthony Jordan Navarro
1,3652.30%


 

29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Usually you like your finance minister to be more well known. Not sure that exists now in the Ford cabinet. That said I think the PC's should have no trouble holding on here.
19/05/2022 ricardamundo
74.12.115.225
Other commenters have pointed out the Finance Minister is usually one of the highest profile positions and so you'd think Bethlenfalvy would have a high profile. But he really doesn't. He did very little as Finance Minister, is partly responsible for botching the rollout of pandemic relief funding, and had little to say other than tow the party line when he was heard from. On a personal note, a message to his office during the Ottawa convoy debacle was responded to with a mealy-mouthed prepared text that I'd expect from a rookie back-bencher. If he has such a high profile, I defy you to find many Ontarians who could name their current Finance Minister. He's certainly no Ernie Eeves, Jim Flaherty, Janet Ecker, Greg Sorbara or even Dwight Duncan in terms of profile. He deserves to be sent packing but probably will be relected.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
This could be a target for the Liberals if they're really stretching out a lead, but since that's unlikely it looks like Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy will return.
15/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Bethlenfalvy's actually a low-profile kind of "high profile" minister--which after the Rod Phillips circus might be a quiet-competence kind of virtue. Yet another case where the Libs are recycling their '18 3rd-place standard-bearer, while the NDP candidate had previously overachieved in Don Valley East. Federally, it's the urban parts that define the electoral character; provincially, it's likelier that the Uxbridgean rural tail will wag the urban dog. (But boy, the NDP did unexpectedly well in '18--simply N of the 401, they won 2 megapolls and pressed 8 others into supermarginality. At no point after 1990 could *anybody* have imagined that happening.)
29/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Peter Bethlenfalvy was first elected in the 2018 election , this riding had no incumbent that year but had previously been liberal. a new riding which includes urban Pickering area in the south and rural/suburban Uxbridge area in the north. He was a relatively low profile candidate back in 2018 compared to now as he is the finance minister and high profile at queens park. Ibrahim Daniyal is running again for the liberals and Khalid Ahmed is the new ndp candidate.
09/03/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
With a high profile minister like Peter Bethlenfalvy this riding looks pretty safe for the PC?€™s for now. Things may change in the future, but not too likely that they will.



Navigate to Ontario 2022 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2022 | www.electionprediction.org | Email Webmaster