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Agduk, Gunes |  |
Bardeesy, Karim |  |
Frejlich, Monika |  |
Height, Danielle |  |
Karpoche, Bhutila |  |
Macklem, Patrick |  |
Peskett, Craig |  |
Roberts, Oliver |
Incumbent:
| Bhutila Karpoche |
Population (2016): |
108805 |
| Population (2011): | 105103 |
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
|
| |  |
BHUTILA KARPOCHE |
| 32,407 | 59.41% |
|  |
ADAM PHAM |
| 9,821 | 18.00% |
|  |
NADIA GUERRERA |
| 9,271 | 17.00% |
|  |
HALYNA ZALUCKY |
| 2,544 | 4.66% |
|  |
MATTHIAS NUNNO |
| 371 | 0.68% |
|  |
JAY WATTS |
| 135 | 0.25% |
2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
|
|  |
17,841 | 39.56% |
|  |
5,787 | 12.83% |
|  |
18,385 | 40.77% |
|  |
2,479 | 5.50% |
| OTHERS |
601 | 1.33% |
| Total Transposed |
45,093 |
| Component Riding(s) |
| Parkdale-High Park
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions |
2021 Federal Election Prediction
| |
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
| |
|  |
Arif Virani ** |
| 28,852 | 47.40% |
|  |
Paul Taylor |
| 19,180 | 31.50% |
|  |
Adam Pham |
| 8,015 | 13.20% |
|  |
Nick Capra |
| 3,916 | 6.40% |
|  |
Greg Wycliffe |
| 643 | 1.10% |
|  |
Alykhan Pabani |
| 119 | 0.20% |
|  |
Terry Parker |
| 119 | 0.20% |
|  |
Lorne Gershuny |
| 43 | 0.10% |
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
| |
|  |
Arif Virani |
| 24,623 | 42.00% |
|  |
Peggy Nash ** |
| 23,566 | 40.20% |
|  |
Ian Allen |
| 7,641 | 13.00% |
|  |
Adam Phipps |
| 1,743 | 3.00% |
|  |
Mark Jeftovic |
| 610 | 1.00% |
|  |
Terry Parker |
| 191 | 0.30% |
|  |
Lorne Gershuny |
| 100 | 0.20% |
|  |
Carol Royer |
| 93 | 0.20% |
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| 31/05/2022 |
Chris N
154.6.27.37 |
| Almost a year after my first prediction, I still have this as an NDP hold. The Liberals are running a better campaign than 2018, and Bardeesy is a solid candidate, but Karpoche's win of almost 60% last election will be enough of a cushion for her to be re-elected. |
| 29/05/2022 |
Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105 |
| One time this was the political home for NDP Premier Bob Rae, I don't know if the current NDP MPP has any leadership aspirations herself but I do think she wins this riding on June 2. |
| 28/05/2022 |
Mark Shaw
24.246.81.55 |
| Parkdale-High Park is a guaranteed NDP hold, and likely the safest seat for them in Toronto. The liberals would have to be polling strong enough to take most of the city to unseat NDP here. |
| 23/05/2022 |
jeff316
184.175.13.73 |
| Why would a strong candidate and Liberal insider like Kareem Bardeesy run in a no-hope contest in Parkdale-High Park against against a formidable NDP candidate with a top-tier organisation behind her ? Is there something going on in the background? Some chance we don't know about? Rumbling in the streets? Or do some people's partisan leanings just get the better of their judgment? In this case I would guess the latter, but I'm open to being wrong. |
| 28/04/22 |
LeftCoast
207.194.253.26 |
| This seat could be vulnerable with a big-enough Liberal swing in the 415, but right now it looks like Bhutila Karpoche of the NDP is safe. |
| 02/04/22 |
Stevo
164.177.56.215 |
| Bhutila is a young MPP and making a name for herself on the housing file, both in terms of fighting for more housing supply as well as a crackdown (finally) on overseas money laundering that parasitizes the Toronto market. Very much in tune with the priorities of her generation and her riding. Quite possibly a future NDP leadership hopeful. |
| 29/03/22 |
A.S.
99.225.52.35 |
| A symbol of the ferocity of the NDP machine in this riding is how Paul Taylor came close to retaking it federally in '21 after falling back 16 points in '19 (while the similar '19 margin in Toronto-Danforth didn't budge). Somehow, it seems even more like party bedrock now than it ever was under Cheri Di Novo's regime. |
| 20/03/22 |
R.O.
24.146.13.249 |
| Bhutila Karpoche was first elected here in 2018 but riding has been ndp all the way back to 2006 when Cheri Dinovo mpp. Karem Bardeesy is new liberal candidate and Monika Frejlich is new pc candidate. Likely to stay ndp |
| 06/06/21 |
Chris N
24.36.32.209 |
| While anything can happen in 12 months, this is probably an NDP hold in 2022. One likely sign of the NDP's strength is that the former Liberal candidate from 2018, Nadia Guerrera, is running next election in the riding to the immediate north, York South Weston, suggesting the Liberals see a better opportunity elsewhere. |
| 03/06/21 |
KXS
99.247.196.32 |
Should be an NDP hold no matter how the party fares province-wide.
Karpoche won nearly 60% of the vote last time around. |
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