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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Parkdale-High Park


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Agduk, Gunes

Bardeesy, Karim

Frejlich, Monika

Height, Danielle

Karpoche, Bhutila

Macklem, Patrick

Peskett, Craig

Roberts, Oliver


Incumbent:
Bhutila Karpoche

Population (2016):

108805
Population (2011):105103


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

BHUTILA KARPOCHE
32,40759.41%
ADAM PHAM
9,82118.00%
NADIA GUERRERA
9,27117.00%
HALYNA ZALUCKY
2,5444.66%
MATTHIAS NUNNO
3710.68%
JAY WATTS
1350.25%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,841 39.56%
5,787 12.83%
18,385 40.77%
2,479 5.50%
OTHERS 601 1.33%
Total Transposed 45,093
      Component Riding(s)

Parkdale-High Park
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Arif Virani **
28,85247.40%
Paul Taylor
19,18031.50%
Adam Pham
8,01513.20%
Nick Capra
3,9166.40%
Greg Wycliffe
6431.10%
Alykhan Pabani
1190.20%
Terry Parker
1190.20%
Lorne Gershuny
430.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Arif Virani
24,62342.00%
Peggy Nash **
23,56640.20%
Ian Allen
7,64113.00%
Adam Phipps
1,7433.00%
Mark Jeftovic
6101.00%
Terry Parker
1910.30%
Lorne Gershuny
1000.20%
Carol Royer
930.20%


 

31/05/2022 Chris N
154.6.27.37
Almost a year after my first prediction, I still have this as an NDP hold. The Liberals are running a better campaign than 2018, and Bardeesy is a solid candidate, but Karpoche's win of almost 60% last election will be enough of a cushion for her to be re-elected.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
One time this was the political home for NDP Premier Bob Rae, I don't know if the current NDP MPP has any leadership aspirations herself but I do think she wins this riding on June 2.
28/05/2022 Mark Shaw
24.246.81.55
Parkdale-High Park is a guaranteed NDP hold, and likely the safest seat for them in Toronto. The liberals would have to be polling strong enough to take most of the city to unseat NDP here.
23/05/2022 jeff316
184.175.13.73
Why would a strong candidate and Liberal insider like Kareem Bardeesy run in a no-hope contest in Parkdale-High Park against against a formidable NDP candidate with a top-tier organisation behind her ? Is there something going on in the background? Some chance we don't know about? Rumbling in the streets? Or do some people's partisan leanings just get the better of their judgment? In this case I would guess the latter, but I'm open to being wrong.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
This seat could be vulnerable with a big-enough Liberal swing in the 415, but right now it looks like Bhutila Karpoche of the NDP is safe.
02/04/22 Stevo
164.177.56.215
Bhutila is a young MPP and making a name for herself on the housing file, both in terms of fighting for more housing supply as well as a crackdown (finally) on overseas money laundering that parasitizes the Toronto market. Very much in tune with the priorities of her generation and her riding. Quite possibly a future NDP leadership hopeful.
29/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
A symbol of the ferocity of the NDP machine in this riding is how Paul Taylor came close to retaking it federally in '21 after falling back 16 points in '19 (while the similar '19 margin in Toronto-Danforth didn't budge). Somehow, it seems even more like party bedrock now than it ever was under Cheri Di Novo's regime.
20/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Bhutila Karpoche was first elected here in 2018 but riding has been ndp all the way back to 2006 when Cheri Dinovo mpp. Karem Bardeesy is new liberal candidate and Monika Frejlich is new pc candidate. Likely to stay ndp
06/06/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
While anything can happen in 12 months, this is probably an NDP hold in 2022. One likely sign of the NDP's strength is that the former Liberal candidate from 2018, Nadia Guerrera, is running next election in the riding to the immediate north, York South Weston, suggesting the Liberals see a better opportunity elsewhere.
03/06/21 KXS
99.247.196.32
Should be an NDP hold no matter how the party fares province-wide.
Karpoche won nearly 60% of the vote last time around.



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