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Baker, Cheryle Rose |  |
Hardeman, Ernie |  |
Holmes, Mary |  |
Oldenburger, Connie |  |
Toews, Karl |  |
Wilson, Lindsay |
Incumbent:
| Ernie Hardeman |
Population (2016): |
113790 |
| Population (2011): | 108656 |
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
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| |  |
ERNIE HARDEMAN * |
| 29,152 | 55.73% |
|  |
TARA KING |
| 15,917 | 30.43% |
|  |
JAMES HOWARD |
| 3,620 | 6.92% |
|  |
ALBERT DE JONG |
| 2,254 | 4.31% |
|  |
ROBERT VAN RYSWYCK |
| 447 | 0.85% |
|  |
CHRIS SWIFT |
| 370 | 0.71% |
| |
DAVID SIKAL |
| 335 | 0.64% |
|  |
TIM HODGES |
| 216 | 0.41% |
2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
|
|  |
9,032 | 21.42% |
|  |
19,485 | 46.20% |
|  |
10,851 | 25.73% |
|  |
2,045 | 4.85% |
| OTHERS |
761 | 1.80% |
| Total Transposed |
42,175 |
| Component Riding(s) |
| Oxford
(97.30% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions |
| Brant
(2.70% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions |
2021 Federal Election Prediction
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2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
| |
|  |
Dave MacKenzie ** |
| 29,310 | 48.10% |
|  |
Matthew Chambers |
| 12,306 | 20.20% |
|  |
Brendan Knight |
| 11,745 | 19.30% |
|  |
Lisa Birtch-Carriere |
| 4,770 | 7.80% |
|  |
Wendy Martin |
| 1,774 | 2.90% |
|  |
Melody Aldred |
| 986 | 1.60% |
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
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|  |
Dave MacKenzie ** |
| 25,966 | 45.70% |
|  |
Don McKay |
| 18,299 | 32.20% |
|  |
Zoe Kunschner |
| 9,406 | 16.50% |
|  |
Mike Farlow |
| 2,004 | 3.50% |
|  |
Melody Ann Aldred |
| 1,175 | 2.10% |
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| 29/05/2022 |
Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105 |
| Hardeman is running again. Even if he wasn't hard to see the riding going anything but PC. |
| 24/05/2022 |
Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246 |
| The Liberals seem to have put what must have been most of their campaign funds into signs here. If we're counting signs on the sides of roads they have the most(think 5 signs in a row). Though I have yet to see a Liberal sign actually in front of a House or on private property. Ernie has the most in front of houses, while the NDP has a few as well. Going of what I can judge of the riding, I predict PCs at like ~50%, NDP ~25%, Liberals a distant third(~12%?), possibly fourth behind a dissident right party(who also seem to love signs not in front of houses). |
| 28/04/22 |
LeftCoast
207.194.253.26 |
| Classic rural, Southwest PC stronghold. Ernie Hardeman is one of the longest serving MPPs, and will be returned easily. |
| 20/04/22 |
A.S.
99.225.52.35 |
| Hardeman or no Hardeman, let's not overstate the Tories' potential for vulnerability in Oxford--at this point, it'd require *quite* a drastic collapse of SW Ontario support on their part; and even if the opposition is more "promisingly" frontloaded at the NDP end here than in some places, you'd really have to eliminate the Libs and Greens altogether and throw in a bunch of dissident-right forces in order to stage an upset. That is, unless auto-industry growth in Woodstock/Ingersoll (and, heck, growth in Tillsonburg, too) has silently, stealthily shifted the latent electoral gravity in recent years--but the Tories are too ingrained as a safe default now, particularly on the back of the rural zones, to the point where in spite of the NDP rise, it might be even safer for them now than it was when it went Lib in '87 and NDP in '90. (Remember: a fair bit of that present-day Con support was once more "floating" and would have defaulted Lib back in the Nixon/Peterson days.) |
| 28/03/22 |
R.O.
24.146.13.249 |
| Ernie Hardeman is apparently running again he was first elected here in 1995. Lindsay Wilson is new ndp candidate and Mary Holmes running for liberals. Woodstock has grown a fair bit , riding most rural oxford county. Likely pc hold even when they eventually have to run a new candidate here. |
| 06/06/21 |
Jeremus von Stroheim
99.251.36.14 |
| This riding really depends on whether Ernie runs again in 2022. If he runs again the conservatives will likely hold this seat, but if he doesn't it could potentially become competitive, given the absolute absence of the Liberals here. Most drops in conservative support here will either stay home, or swing NDP. While this will likely stay Conservative, if they were to collapse in southwestern ontario, this riding wouldn't be immune to that fall. |
| 05/06/21 |
99.226.172.248 |
| This is my Riding.The fact that 338 has Oxford listed just ?likely PC? is huge. In 2018 the Liberals completely collapsed and the NDP hit a new record high. So,I doubt that the Liberals will be able to recover to make any impact. It's between the NDP and the PC and, who knows, if the PCs take a turn... it could mean some much needed change for Oxford. |
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