Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:25:00

Constituency Profile



Bhalesar, Sam

Blandford, Scott

Delvas, Vilteau

Pasma, Chandra

Roberts, Jeremy

Warren, Steven

Jeremy Roberts

Population (2016):

Population (2011):111881

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

21,035 44.84%
15,895 33.89%
6,760 14.41%
2,899 6.18%
OTHERS 318 0.68%
Total Transposed 46,907
      Component Riding(s)

Ottawa West-Nepean
(99.62% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Ottawa Centre
(0.38% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Anita Vandenbeld **
Abdul Abdi
Angella MacEwen
David Stibbe
Serge Guevorkian
Sean Mulligan
Vincent Cama
Butch Moore
Nick Lin

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Anita Vandenbeld
Abdul Abdi
Marlene Rivier
Mark Brooks
Rod Taylor
Sam Heaton


01/06/2022 prog15
On paper, this riding is an Ottawa area battleground that the Libs have a second highest chance of capturing directly from the PCs, after Eglinton-Lawrence in Toronto. But Chiarelli-less Libs upset by an unexpected 2018 defeat here, had a poor campaign, have a little known candidate and are set to split votes with the NDP who run a better-known person in a riding that has more traditionally voted Lib. Concerns of wildcat50 are mostly accounted for already in the existing left vote (the fiction of climate change. globalist regulation agenda of interest to Ottawa bureaucracy etc.). Right parties are insignificant here, Roberts keeps his centrist party's base, and the scares of insurrection and such affect PC voters no more than similar scares in the USA affect Trump voters. Roberts in fact built on his support based on PC performance . It is a close call that assumes the left vote split, but on probabilities only PC should hold it.
02/06/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Throughout the election there has been polls showing the NDP stronger than they should be in eastern ontario, so I feel they must be strong somewhere, and this riding might be it. I originally thought the Liberal's would easily take it back, but I guess I missed the Chiarelli factor benefiting the Liberal's. Perhaps the only pickup of the night for the NDP, and even that is not guarenteed. Hard to say it is anything but a tossup, but I think the NDP might just edge it out, mainly owing to the PC having a decline vote share over the years, and a general Ottawa trend against the Tories. Turnout will be key here to whoever wins, and a tory win is perfectly possible, though I'll predict NDP to be contrarian.
01/06/2022 wildcat50
I was at the michelle heights voting station on the weekend and all I saw was NDP signs on peoples lawns. I also saw NDP signs all over Britannia.It is because of the social housing issues.
In Bayshore,Algonquin college area, all I saw was Liberal signs.
Carlingwood mall, Lincoln fields has many Liberal & NDP signs on people lawns.I am sure some people in Meadowlands also have Liberal and NDP signs up.
nobody wants their healthcare privatized, and not many people want education cut either, and they want action on climate change, social housing issues in the riding.
I dont know but I think this riding is a race between Liberals vs NDP because people feel lied to by the ontario govt.
31/05/2022 dtcaslick
No prediction here. Just pondering out loud if this riding where it was close last time out might be impacted by the frustration regarding the post-storm reaction from Ford, including blaming him for the fact that the power is still out in some parts of Ottawa. I also wonder how the convoy/New Blue Party will factor in, especially in Ottawa area ridings. Ford was missing in action during the convoy/protest/occupation, while Del Duca actually showed up. People on the far-right weren't happy with Ford either. We'll see.
31/05/2022 R.O.
Horwath has made a number of campaign stops in Ottawa West Nepean despite the fact its never really been ndp and the close result from 2018 might be hard to duplicate this election even with the same candidate running. Fact ndp are still focused on the riding at the same time liberals are would seem to create a 3 way race scenario in which Jeremy Roberts could still hold the riding as pcs lead province wide by such large margins. Despite the fact it wasnt a strong riding for the pcs last election although it had been cpc federally for a couple elections when John Baird mp so it could vote for non liberal candidates if they ran strong campaigns in the riding and party was polling well province wide. This riding also has a large number of seniors and many people already voted in advance polls so that would also seem to favour pcs.
30/05/2022 Matt B.
Based on how the polls are shaking out in the last week, this one is going to go to the PCs, but probably not by a huge margin.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Like 2018 it should be close but in 2022 given the strength of the PC's in the polls I have them holding on here in a close race.
28/05/2022 seasaw
@CD, you keep predicting Liberal for all these different ridings. Why? You talk about their renewed strength, where is it? Grant it, theres still 4 more days left in the campaign, and things can still happen, though that window is almost closed, its not fully closed yet. Theres not much renewed strength for the Liberals, theyre polling in the mid 20s, remember that this is a party that from 1947 right up until the last election, and even though they lost all but 5 of those elections, they never got below 30% popular support, for you to call their current polling numbers renewed strength is a bit bizarre. Now for this riding, it was close the last time, thats because Bob Chiarelli was a very popular figure, and a very experienced politician. Hes not running, which means a dropped support for the Liberals, also, the last time, Jeremy Roberts was a young kid and not very well known, this time hes the incumbent and has a very good record as an MPP, so hes probably going to win by a fair margin this time.
20/05/2022 CD
This riding was so close last time, it's hard to see the Liberals losing it with their renewed strength.
19/05/2022 The Cornflower
The NDP might eke this one out. It is on the top of the lists that Andrea Horvath is winnable from the PCs (0.3% difference in 2018), who attended the campaign today, as Jagmeet Singh did one week ago. If party insiders are believed, there are 3x the signs this campaign than any previous in the riding, and many voters at the doorsteps committing to voting for Pasma than NDP in earlier elections.

My street went from 2 to 6 NDP signs, and for the first election in sixteen years, federal or provincial, my street has no signs from any other party.
18/05/2022 wildcat49xx
I still see the liberals pulling this one off because i have a feeling some of the federal liberals will campaign with Sam bhalesar. There are issues in the riding due to lack of cultural diversity programs, lack of funds for arts, culture. The only thing I hear from new comers every day is that their is lack of diversity when it comes to representation. Yes, there are issues at queens park that never came up in the debates. Canadian mental health are now saying all of the party platforms are lacking proper plans on dealing with the opidid crisis. Geez!
16/05/2022 WelcomeToOttawa
Mainstreet poll showed a statistical tie between the NDP and the PC. Driving around my neighbourhood it looks to be mostly NDP. Looks like the progressive vote is all going orange this time. This is really bad news for Jeremy.
14/05/2022 Ottawa Watcher
That local Mainstreet poll showing Liberal weakness here, combined with provincial polls that show a Liberal bump taking some NDP support, probably means that Jeremy Roberts pulls through here.
10/05/2022 Ontario Voter
A new riding poll from Mainstreet Research shows the PCs with a 3 point lead in this riding over the NDP, with the liberals a distant third place. If this is true then it seems that this riding is surprisingly winnable for the NDP. However if the liberals take just enough votes away from Chandra Pasma then the PCs will be able to come up the middle. It seems that Jeremy Roberts best chance at being returned to Queens Park rests on the anti-Ford vote failing to coalesce around a single candidate.
04/05/2022 Tom Campbell
PC hold. Jeremy Roberts has been running a robust campaign highlighting new funding for hospitals and has been to my door twice. Chandra Pasma, having lost by only 175 votes last time, is a known quantity and is hungry to close that gap as evidenced by her social media pictures of large canvassing teams. Nonetheless, polls across the province point to be a more even split between the Liberals and NDP than in 2018, with the PCs holding strong meaning they can hold onto ridings like this one.
Its also important to remember how important Bob Chiarelli was for the Liberals in past elections; as a former mayor and minister well-known in the community, he was a big draw. The new Liberal candidate, on the other hand, is a total unknown who seems to only be running a modest campaign. Her campaign launch was a sparse crowd and seemed to just be attended by Liberal candidates and her family.
01/05/2022 R.O.
This riding was very close last time but anyone familiar with Ottawa politics knows who Bob Chiarelli was and likely why the liberal numbers stayed high here despite the low province wide results. I doubt any average resident in the riding knows Sam Bhalesar holds a high ranking position within the liberal party of Canada or that would affect there vote. Del Duca isnt even well know , last time liberals were in opposition Dalton Mcguinty was from Ottawa and this riding stayed pc in 99 election despite him being mpp next door . the liberals didnt win it until 2003 when Jim Watson first got elected and he was a star candidate. John Baird also got re elected here twice as a conservative when he was the mp from 2006-2015. So Jeremy Roberts could still have a path to re election here but would need to get a higher % of the vote which the pcs have done in this riding in past elections.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Jeremy Roberts was a bit of a surprise last time, and this was the closest three way race in the province. Sam Bhalesar-Saran, who is the National Secretary of the Liberal Party of Canada, will very likely come out on top.
17/04/22 A.S.
Re Jeremy Roberts outing himself: one might cynically say that OW-N types have gone through that business w/John Baird federally, so it's just water off their backs ;-) Otherwise, it's a real couldn't-have-been-foreseen-before-2018 collision course--the Libs still with pretense to "rightful" old Ottawa-area dominance and 3-way close enough in '18 for that to matter; yet the NDP oh so close to actually getting it last time, though if they actually *did* get it, Pasma might well be the Jill Andrew of the NCR this time around (i.e. a presumed single-term "accident"), but because they *didn't*, it's "unfinished business" instead. And remember: Roberts won w/a lower share than his party got in loss in Orleans, so if the Libs succeed in overriding third-partydom while wind remains in the Pasma sails, he could be this season's 3rd place Chiarelli. (Have the Tories *ever* been 3rd in OW-N?)
24/03/22 R.O.
Jeremy Roberts first got elected here in 2018 in a close race with ndp candidate Chandra Pasma . ndp had typically been a non factor in the riding so a surprise they came that close to winning it. known as the mpp who pushed a daylight savings time bill when at the legislature. I don?€™t like commenting on the marital status of political candidates but he also recently came out as gay which may have surprised some that the pc party has an openly gay mpp from Ottawa. Ndp candidate from 2018 is running again and liberals running Sam Bhalesar who I?€™m not familiar with.
20/03/22 Cal
175 votes and a campaign that hasn?€™t taken its foot off the gas.
I think once the Liberals get Sam Bhalesar in the news, their support will pick up because she is a new Person that is running for the Liberals.
Plus, the riding is lacking better paying jobs for people over age 30 due to the ontario govt & employers using cheap labour tactics and only focused on lower paying jobs in retail, service sector. Realistically, people over age 30+ are the ones buying homes, cars,travelling, getting married, starting a family. Well, it is kind of hard to do this when so many people 30+ are underemployed, or unemployed.Yes the Ontario govt has not dealt with this issue very well.
Many migrants in the riding were harassed by the convoy protesters, and it looks bad on the conservatives for supporting the convoy. Especially, when some migrants were bullied and physically pushed around in the downtown core.
Women want an MPP who are more Liberated, and feminist.
So far, not much investment came in for mental health, social housing from the province of Ontario
Top it off, many residents in Lincoln Fields, Carling wood mall area felt neglected by the ontario govt because their was no pop up clinic throughout the entire pandemic for people to get vaccinated, or tested. Many new people in Carling wood & Lincoln Fields had no clue to where Ron Kolbus Centre is in Britannia , and they did not know where the Clinic was in Bayshore. They were hoping for a pop up clinic to be available in Carling wood, or Lincoln Heights, and it never happened . Yes, many residents are upset at the Ontario govt for neglecting the residents in Carling wood & Lincoln Heights. Plus they are upset for some Conservative MP's , and mpps supporting a convoy which occupied our city, hurt businesses, bullied and harassed the residents for wearing a face mask
11/02/22 Libby Burgundy
Ford's invisibility on the Ottawa convoy protests will make life difficult for candidates in inner-city ridings. The issue won't have as much play in the suburbs, but West-Nepean, home to the SJAM, was one of the most affected parts of the city outside the downtown core.
25/01/22 Finn
It's reasonable to assume this riding can and will be won by the Liberals in 2022. Even in the disaster that was 2018 for the liberals, they only narrowly lost it. Ottawa has also always been a stronghold for the Liberals, federally and provincially. With both NDP and PC support down, it's difficult to see how the Liberals would fail to win this riding.
02/01/22 Dr Bear
Absolutely not a safe seat for the PCs and most people are angry (if not mildly irked) by the pandemic situation. This is actually low hanging fruit for the LPO given how an obvious vote split allowed the PCs to win it in 2018. The only ways the liberals don?€™t retake this seat is if either a) The Libs tank like they did in 2018, b) The PCs catch fire (unlikely with a spotty record), or c) The NDP look like they?€™re forming government. I would argue that all three are possibilities but don?€™t seem particularly likely at the moment.
03/09/21 Matt B.
This is a safe seat for the PC party at this point. People are generally satisfied with how Doug Ford has handled the pandemic and the OLP has yet to make any kind of real impression.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
A near impossible hold for the conservatives in 2022. Given the Liberals will probably do better in Ottawa than in 2018, I don't see how they fail to take this riding back.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
A near impossible hold for the conservatives in 2022. Given the Liberals will probably do better in Ottawa than in 2018, I don't see how they fail to take this riding back.

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