Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Ottawa-Vanier


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Armstrong-Giroux, Eric

Collard, Lucille

Corcoran, Coreen

Evans, Lyra

Hamilton, Blake

Mayangi, Patrick

Mcgruer, David

Pastien, Michael

Proulx, Christian


Incumbent:
Lucille Collard

Population (2016):

111508
Population (2011):110999


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

NATHALIE DES ROSIERS *
20,55542.86%
LYRA EVANS
14,23229.68%
FADI NEMR
10,25221.38%
SHEILAGH MCLEAN
1,9554.08%
KEEGAN BENNETT
4130.86%
KEN LEWIS
3320.69%
DAVID MCGRUER
2190.46%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

23,392 55.16%
9,763 23.02%
5,564 13.12%
3,311 7.81%
OTHERS 377 0.89%
Total Transposed 42,406
      Component Riding(s)

Ottawa-Vanier
(93.41% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Ottawa-Orléans
(6.59% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mona Fortier **
32,67951.20%
Stéphanie Mercier
13,51621.20%
Joel E. Bernard
11,11817.40%
Oriana Ngabirano
4,7967.50%
Paul Durst
1,0641.70%
Derek Miller
2290.40%
Joel Altman
2110.30%
Michelle Paquette
1150.20%
Daniel James McHugh
940.10%
Christian Legeais
590.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mauril Bélanger **
36,47457.60%
Emilie Taman
12,19419.20%
David Piccini
12,10919.10%
Nira Dookeran
1,9473.10%
Coreen Corcoran
5030.80%
Christian Legeais
1280.20%


 

29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
This area has elected Liberals provincially since the 70's, in 2022 that trend will continue.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Despite a good go of things in 2018 by the NDP, this is probably among the safest seats for the Liberals in Ontario.
17/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
The only 40%+ Lib result in '18--let that speak for itself. But one of those seats where if the Libs disappeared tomorrow, it'd likely go NDP--and unlike Ottawa South, not so much of a "recent-in-making" circumstance.
25/02/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
1 of only 2 ridings to have had by elections since the last provincial election and liberals held the seat rather easily although vote occurred just before covid pandemic hit. riding has a long liberal history although new mpp Lucille Collard isn?€™t well known.
07/06/21 Libby Burgundy
198.91.168.152
Based on current polling trends, the Liberals should have no problem holding onto the seats they won in 2018, including Vanier.
Sent:



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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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