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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Brampton Centre


Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:40:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Hussain, Safdar

Matusiak, Kathrin

Singh, Sara

Tye, Karitsa

Williams, Charmaine


Incumbent:
Sara Singh

Population (2016):

102270
Population (2011):103122


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

SARA SINGH
12,89238.37%
HARJIT JASWAL
12,80338.11%
SAFDAR HUSSAIN
5,82517.34%
LAILA ZARRABI YAN
1,0533.13%
ANDREW HOSIE
6441.92%
WILLIAM OPREL
2150.64%
MEHDI PAKZAD
1660.49%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

10,768 38.33%
7,236 25.75%
8,187 29.14%
1,678 5.97%
OTHERS 227 0.81%
Total Transposed 28,096
      Component Riding(s)

Brampton-Springdale
(49.07% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Bramalea-Gore-Malton
(44.99% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Mississauga-Brampton South
(5.95% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ramesh Sangha **
18,77147.20%
Pawanjit Gosal
10,69626.90%
Jordan Boswell
7,81919.70%
Pauline Thornham
1,6854.20%
Baljit Bawa
6811.70%
David Gershuny
1060.30%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ramesh Sangha
19,27748.60%
Bal Gosal **
13,34533.70%
Rosemary Keenan
5,99315.10%
Saul Marquard T. Bottcher
8442.10%
Frank Chilelli
1730.40%


 

31/05/2022 Chris N
154.6.27.44
Following my "Too Close to Call" prediction last year, I have this as a PC pick up. The NDP won this riding by a nose in 2018. Their polling has dropped since then, and with Ford likely on his way to a larger majority, this will likely one of their new seats come Thursday.
29/05/2022 Dr Bear
82.8.28.63
@Seasaw: Your reasonings are pretty sound, and I dont disagree with what you said. However, I am going to a bit contrarian and say the NDP still have a shot at holding the seat. The NDPs incumbent, being a star of the caucus, is going to buffered somewhat from the drop in party support in the 905. Combine that with strategic voting by soft liberal/green supporters; NDP focusing on holding this seat; and far right parties peeling off support from the PCs; and I can envision the NDP slipping through in a tight race. As I said earlier, I do not disagree with your reasonings, so Im calling this a NDP/PC toss up.
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
Another race that should be close. The NDP incumbent is one of the party's deputy leader while the PC's are running a Brampton city councilor. This riding was a 89 vote win for the NDP last time, here in 2022 it'll go PC.
25/05/2022 seasaw
99.225.210.37
This was close the last time and while Sara Singh has done a decent job, with the way things have turned out, her record may not be enough to save her job. Right now, the NDP is polling about 10 points lower in 905 than they did in 18, while the PCs and the Liberals are polling higher. Some of Saras support will bleed to the Liberals, some to Green and some to PC, which is enough to produce a PC victory.
24/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246
Forum did riding polls for 3 Brampton Ridings(Centre, North, and West), and this is the only one looking possible for the NDP to win out of the three, though they are still trailing by 4 points behind the PCs(versus a 10 point deficit in North, and out of the race in West). I think incumbency and local campaign power will keep this in the NDP column, but the margin won't be much different than in 2018. It would certainly be an interesting case where the NDP wins this, but loses east, given that they did the best here federally, but that requires a pretty big fumble which seems unlikely.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Sara Singh eked out a narrow victory against the PC tide last time. This time her main competitor will likely be Liberal Safdar Hussain, who ran in 2018 as well. With an incumbency advantage, I see her narrowly retaining the seat over Hussain.
11/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Being a star of the NDP caucus is something Sara Singh has going for her; but it still feels like there's something "asterisked" about the ONDP's grip on Brampton, and whatever Singh's merits, whether 2018 proves to be a fleeting wind a la the Orange Crush in QC remains to be seen. Also, the "ex-Jagmeet" parts of the riding weren't his best parts, so it took sleight-of-hand for Singh to win (ironically, Singh lost in those ex-Jagmeet parts, while winning in the balance.) The riding's also more polyglot than Punjabi, which makes such candidate-origin specificity not so much of a looming factor--and while the Libs might feel they *should* have it on generic federal and pre-2018 provincial grounds, given where the OLP's presently coming from the odds sadly favour the Cons as the alternative to the NDP, and a POC municipal councillor is the way to go about it. But all in all, it still feels fluid three ways.
09/04/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
This may be like AD suggests an easy NDP win, because after all she is the incumbent and has done a decent job, but then there's Charmaine, the PC candidate, is quite well known in parts of the riding and a star, so, wouldn't call it a sure thing for the NDP
02/04/22 AD
198.84.175.242
This might not even be the nail-biter people are predicting. Sara Singh has name recognition and incumbency going for her and I don't see much serious competition in terms of the other candidates, personally.
29/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Sara Singh was first elected here in 2018 in a close race vs the pc candidate , the riding had no incumbent that year as Brampton ridings realigned and new ones created. I’m not sure how much of an advantage being the incumbent is in Brampton when compared to other ridings. Charmaine Williams is the new pc candidate and Safdar Hussain is running again for liberals. too close to call
17/06/21 Chris N
2.57.169.106
Sorry - I should have noted that this was the closest race in 2018 in Peel region. I agree with the previous poster that with the right political winds the Liberals could be competitive here too.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
99.251.36.14
Sara Singh has been one of the most visible of the NDP MPPs, basically taking over the old role Jagmeet used to hold. Also neither the liberal or conservative candidates are punjabis, which will put this riding as a likely NDP hold.
03/06/21 KXS
99.247.196.32
I think this will be a toss up between the NDP and Liberals. It would depend on which way the progressive vote coalesces during the campaign.
Doug Ford's PCs will have a tough time defending their Peel ridings, let alone win new ones.
12/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This was the closest race in the 2018 election. Incumbent Sara Singh has a high profile in caucus as as deputy leader, and her main challenger will likely be Brampton councillor-turned-PC candidate Charmaine Williams. Expect this to be another very close race.



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