Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Ottawa South

Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Dear, Myles

Dinca, Edward

Dookeran, Nira

Fraser, John

Gay, Morgan

Ince, Martin

Thomas, Daniel

Wasslen, Larry

John Fraser

Population (2016):

Population (2011):121894

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

23,708 49.96%
15,235 32.11%
5,817 12.26%
2,034 4.29%
OTHERS 656 1.38%
Total Transposed 47,450
      Component Riding(s)

Ottawa South
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

David McGuinty **
Eli Tannis
Morgan Gay
Les Schram
Rodrigo André Bolaños
Ahmed Bouragba
Larry Wasslen
Sarmad Laith

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

David McGuinty **
Dev Balkissoon
George Brown
John Redins
Al Gullon
Damien Wilson
Larry Wasslen


29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The one time political home for Dalton Mcguinty Sr. and Dalton Mcguinty Jr. is now home to Liberal John Fraser. He'll keep this riding in Liberal hands after June 2.
21/05/2022 Ed from Ottawa
In what must be the quietest election ever the Liberals are going to hold the riding. 338 have them far ahead, the NDP can take some solace in winning the public sign war on Hunt Club but even there the amount of signage compared to past elections is vey low. The main provincial polls haven't really moved all that much either so the only question that remains is will Frasier be a part of the official opposition or with a 3rd place party that will at least have party status.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
No PC candidate nominated here, as of yet. Won't make much of a difference, as John Fraser will return to Queen's Park without much trouble.
25/04/22 seasaw
No contest here, the riding’s been reliably Liberal since 1987. Now every once in a while, the Tories make a bit of a noise but they don’t come close to winning. Please don’t embarrass yourself, by predicting anything else.
17/04/22 A.S.
One of only 2 ridings which the OLP won by more than a supermarginal amount in '18; and I don't know what the McGuinty clan did here, but it's an unsinkable Rasputin of a Lib riding both federally and provincially--who knew when John Fraser succeeded Premier Dalton (and only byelection-barely) that he'd be one of the last party survivors *and* interim leader? And benefiting from how the Ottawa-area result split in '18--that is, the unforeseen unpopularity of the Ford Tories and unforeseen rise of the NDP in Greater Ottawa--led to unforeseen near-parity in 2nd, like an inverse version of Libs and Dippers cancelling one another out in Mississauga seats. Which *might* mean that we're approaching a circumstance where the NDP have a greater chance of prying Ottawa South from Liberal hands than the Tories do--fat chance, unless the Libs *really* vaporize. (But for the sake of argument, likelier the NDP here than in Orleans. It's sort of the Ottawa-area version of Don Valley East in that light--though DVE is still likelier Tory than NDP.)
04/03/22 R.O.
Long time liberal riding , John Fraser has been its mpp since 2013 so more than likely he holds it .
15/06/21 Ed from Ottawa
Even though this Riding has been Liberal for a long time there have been opportunities for the Conservatives to flip this riding. Those opportunities though were squandered by the Conservatives due to their invisible and non-existent local campaigns.
At this time so long as Fraser runs again locally can't see the Conservatives taking this riding. Fraser is simply one of the best local campaigners in the country as he has shown time and again.
In order for the Conservatives to have a real shot at this riding at least two of the following three things need to happen:
1) Fraser not run again
2) Conservatives have a strong local candidate
3) Conservatives actually put together a strong local campaign.(This one needs to happen regardless of the other two)
The NDP and Greens are a non-factor in terms of having a chance at winning here. The NDP locally despite actually having strong local campaigns typically run several points below their provincial average. Only way for them to be competitive here is if the NDP would form a very large majority which at this time doesn't look at all likely.

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