Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Blais, Stephen

Bourdon, Gabe

Clements, Vince

Feli??n, Melissa

Lewis, Ken

Petersen, Michelle

Randall, Liam

Stephen Blais

Population (2016):

Population (2011):119247

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

29,688 53.26%
18,639 33.44%
5,034 9.03%
1,978 3.55%
OTHERS 406 0.73%
Total Transposed 55,745
      Component Riding(s)

(93.90% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(5.01% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(1.09% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marie-France Lalonde
David Bertschi
Jacqui Wiens
Michelle Petersen
Roger Saint-Fleur

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Andrew Leslie
Royal Galipeau **
Nancy Tremblay
Raphaël Morin


30/05/2022 R.O.
This riding hasnt generated a lot of attention not even sure if any party leaders have been here. the pc candidate this year is Melissa Felian , a rookie candidate who appears to have been miss Ottawa in 2019. This riding has been pc/cpc in the past but shifted more liberal in recent elections so Stephen Blais would still seem to have an advantage, although it was fairly close in 2018 despite not being close in the by election. With polls showing a big pc lead province wide would expect numbers here similar to 2018 not 2020. Should also not Pat Stogran was listed as a candidate for None of the Above on Wikipedia early on but appears to have not made the final ballot so not a candidate.
31/05/2022 Mark W
I am really surprised the ON PC Party have not fielded a stronger candidate I believe Blais can be defeated, he upset a lot of his constituents by leaving Cumberland Ward un represented when he decided to run to replace MF Lalonde at Queens Park. Also his relationship to the flawed LRT contracting process leaves a stain on his resume
29/05/2022 Marco Ricci
Yes, this riding definitely looks set to go Liberal again. I live in this riding and Blais definitely has a large lead in lawn signs, with much fewer for the PC's and NDP. The PC's and NDP are putting in some effort here -- I saw the PC's going door to door in my neighbourhood, and the NDP has put up a considerable number of signs in intersections and public places. So although Blais is the clear frontrunner, the PC's and NDP look like they want to get a respectable showing.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The Liberals probably will not be forming government in Ontario on June 2 but they should keep many of their current seats including this long time Liberal stronghold.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Easy win for Liberal incumbent Stephen Blais. Interesting to see former Veterans Ombudsperson and federal NDP leadership candidate Pat Stogran running here for the "None of the Above Direct Democracy Party".
18/04/22 LFCOttawa
MPP Blais should win this easily. It's my home riding. While I'm angry at Del Duca calling for an extension to mask mandates, I will still likely vote OLP here as he is a great MPP for our riding, and I doubt the PC's will run anyone with cabinet potential.
17/04/22 A.S.
Believe it or not, this has had a recent history of PC top-targeting, a bit through its being reasonably well-to-do suburban (even if w/a Franco-Ontarian tinge), and a bit as a hangover from a second-Harris-term breakthrough in '99. But fueled by Ford Nation's lack of appeal in the Ottawa area, Orleans somehow defied the trend in '18--and in an instant, went from a commonly-perceived "vulnerable" seat to a "safe Liberal" seat. And I agree--at this point, if it couldn't fall in '18 (or in the subsequent byelection), it surely won't fall now, unless the Libs are reduced to a BCNDP '01 type of caucus.
15/03/22 R.O.
Stephen Blais was elected here is a 2020 by election 1 of only 2 that took place since the last election , he had previously been an Ottawa city councillor for the area. It wasn?€™t really close although riding has seen some close races in recent years and had been pc the last time they were in government back in 1999. But unless they find a star candidate they currently list no candidate for the riding . its a likely liberal hold but would like to see who the candidates are for the riding
10/06/21 David
Marie-France Lalonde won by over 2,500 votes in the Liberal disaster that was 2018. She successfully won this riding as the federal Liberal candidate in 2019 and Stephen Blais won here in a by-election when the PC province-wide polling numbers still had them 12-14 points ahead of the Liberals.
Orl?ans should easily stay in the Liberal column.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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