Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Niagara Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-19 00:28:00

Constituency Profile



Burch, Jeff

Davies, Fred

Dumelie, Gary

Flynn, Terry

Gircys, Vincent

Mcarthur, Michelle

Jeff Burch

Population (2016):

Population (2011):105860

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

8,674 20.42%
11,313 26.64%
20,334 47.88%
1,713 4.03%
OTHERS 435 1.02%
Total Transposed 42,468
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Vance Badawey **
April Jeffs
Malcolm Allen
Michael Tomaino
Andrew Sainz-Nieto
Robert Walker

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Vance Badawey
Malcolm Allen **
Leanna Villella
David Clow
Jody Di Bartolomeo
Ron J. Walker


01/06/2022 prog15
I think of the three Niagara NDP ridings where support is volatile and Premier Ford indeed campaigns hard, St.Catharines is likelier to fall than Niagara Centre (campaign trends and poor Dipper incumbent), but if PCs indeed create a mini-wave here in Niagara Peninsula, this might fall as well. One thing I doubt is that low-income constituencies massively switch to PCs as a result of their generous income support policies - they still tend to support the lefties. If PCs win, it will be based on a minor Lib rise in votes and a scare of anti-trucker radical anti-business left of the NDP. Such understanding is obscured, however, by the biased media and intellectuals, and the shift to PCs will likely be minor. It remains a toss-up, though I still give NDP a slight edge as incumbents.
31/05/2022 R.O.
Ford is making a last minute campaign stop in Niagara Centre which is a surprise as he hasnt campaigned that much and a lot of ridings he hasnt even been to yet but been here twice. Although its still been ndp for a very long time, theyd have to have a pretty terrible night to not even keep there Niagara seats especially one theyve held for decades and has an mpp running for re election. The big question here is the liberal vote , not sure there is a lot of reason to vote liberal here but it they return to pre 2018 levels riding could be very close.
29/05/2022 Dr Bear
Yeah, Im not so sure about that PC prediction. Looking at previous elections, both federally and provincially, it seems that the conservatives have about an 18K vote ceiling. The PCs hit that ceiling in 2018 mostly on dissatisfied Liberal votes (Libs down 9 points, NDP down 3 points, PCs up 11 points from previous election). To win, all those voters would need to stay with the PCs, which any reasonable person would not expect to happen (we can agree that the Liberals bottomed out in 2018). That doesnt take into account the few points the PCs will lose to the fringe parties. While the NDP will be losing votes, not all of them are going PC. I think we are going to see another close race, but with the NDP coming out on top.
28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Seeing a lot of thinking this area goes PC on June 2, I can't see it. To much NDP history (Area has been NDP since the 70's), PC's should finish 2nd but I don't think they win this riding.
28/05/2022 seasaw
This is the NDPs version of Ottawa South. Regardless of what the polls say, it is a safe NDP riding. Just like Ottawa Centre, where every once in a while the PCs tease but dont win, in this riding as well every once in a while the PCs or the Liberals tease, just like the PCs are doing now, they will eventually come up short
26/05/2022 Eric
I think previous posters are trying to extrapolate province-wide voting trends to Niagara Centre ... history doesn't bear this out over the course of the NDP's 47 year hold on the riding ... 4 instances the NDP declined in province-wide popular vote and 3 out of 4 of those same instances the NDP candidate in Niagara Centre (or geographic equivalent at the time) actually increased ... 1977 NDP provincially -0.9% but NDP here +9.44%; 1981 NDP provincially -6.8% but NDP here +3.49%; in 1995 NDP provincially -17% and in this case NDP exceeded loss of riding vote share at -20.92%; 1999 provincially NDP -8% but actually increased vote share in riding by 1.73%. 1995 was the outlier but Niagara Centre by and large is less punishing on NDP incumbents when in the same election they are faltering in the province overall.
22/05/2022 The Watcher
Burch is toast and will the first NDPer to fall in Niagara on election night. Pickup for Davies.
22/05/2022 CD
This one definitely goes PC, NDP are not going to be able to match their 2018 showing based on polling trends across the province.
15/05/2022 Finn
I'd like to correct my statement about this riding being Conservative federally, it is in fact Liberal. I apologize for the misinformation.
14/05/2022 Rylan
Maybe theres internal polling that says otherwise, however, I am quite surprised this riding has been called for the PCs.
The riding has been NDP provincially for a very long time. Driving through the riding, there are many Jeff Burch signs; he seems to be popular.
I do appreciate that the NDP are not polling great provincially, but that may not have a huge affect on this riding particularly.
The riding is changing (many people from the GTA are moving here), however, it may still be a few election cycles for us to see that effect.
I could totally be wrong on this, but just my take as a longtime local.
14/05/2022 B.O.
The previous poster said the Conservatives already hold Niagara Centre federally. That is incorrect. The federal Niagara Centre riding is held by the federal Liberals. I don't think Niagara Centre is guaranteed to go to the PCs in the provincial election like everyone else seems to think, but it certainly could happen, especially if there is a vote split between the Liberals and NDP that occurs.
13/05/2022 Eric
Could the PCs take this riding and beat the orange dynasty that goes back to 1975? Certainly ... will they? - probably not. Two factors ... the left of center vote, still a majority vote in this riding, is good at consolidating behind the NDP provincially, read federal Liberal vote. So that part is key. The other part is that you have two right of right of centre parties, New Blue and Ontario, which are energized, angry over pandemic measures and ready to punish Ford for anything he did, and those voters are not going to care about strategic voting, rather than punish Ford. The federal Liberals on the other hand, they are going to care about strategic voting and my bet is most of them not backing the provincial Liberal are going to go orange, not blue.
10/05/2022 Finn
I agree with the previous poster that this riding will go PC, and I do not believe it will even be that close. The polls indicate that the NDP are in for a dip in their support, while the PCs are staying relatively steady. A vote split here should allow the PCs to pick up a seat they already hold federally.
09/05/2022 R.O.
This riding has been ndp for a long time, been a perpetual conservative target federally and provincially but never elected anything other than ndp or liberal mp/mpps. the new pc candidate is Fred Davies who hasnt ran here before. If Ford makes some campaign stops in Niagara region perhaps its a sign the pcs are running a serious campaign here. the ndp still polling around 25 % province wide and Horwath campaigning in mostly non ndp ridings and yet to visit Niagara region. Still early have to see how the overall campaign plays out.
28/04/22 WesternLeftist
NDP's Jeff Burch running for a second term. This seat was competitive last time between NDP and PC, and will be again. Ultimately it'll be a matter of the two parties getting their voters to the polls, but I think with NDP down and PCs somewhat stable in the polls, the PCs will narrowly take this one.
14/04/22 A.S.
In an era of Obama/Trump and Labour's UK "Red Wall" crumbling and the overall WWC shift to the right, it can no longer be taken for granted that even a five-decade seat like Niagara Centre is eternal for the New Democrats. And another factor which hasn't been raised is that Jeff Burch is a fairly unprepossessing Dipper-wallpaper office-holder compared to the Swart-Kormos-Forster lineage which precedes him (or to Wayne Gates next door); so if this is often spoken of in the same breath as Essex and Oshawa as low-hanging Dipper fruit for the PC picking, that's an additional reason why--the notion that a fabled machine *might* be running on fumes at this point.
02/04/22 AD
It seems pretty clear to me that the previous election's collapse of liberal support made this a more PC/NDP race. With that effect subsiding this time around, I would expect the NDP to hold, as is traditional to this riding.
26/03/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
My argument is that it is inevitable that the PCs will lose a raw amount of seats to the Liberals in the GTA/Ottawa that would cause a loss of their majority, so their best chance of keeping a majority is making up those losses in blue collar ridings currently held by the NDP which the PCs lost by relatively small margins. Given the potential for a 3 way race, i think it is fair to say the PCs at least COULD pick this up, though 3 way races are hard to predict.
24/03/22 R.O.
This riding has been ndp since the 70?€™s , current mpp Jeff Burch first elected in 2018. There has been some strong pc results in this riding over the years but they don?€™t have a candidate nominated here and unless they find a star candidate be a challenge to flip this one. Despite being liberal federally never been a good riding for the provincial liberals for whatever reasons. Terry Flynn appears to be new liberal candidate and unclear who the pc candidate is. Bob Gale is the pc candidate in Niagara Falls not this riding .
10/03/22 seasaw
Did I read it correctly? Did the previous poster actually mean that if the Tories want to retain their majority, they have to flip seats like this one ? Obviously the previous poster has no clue what he/she is talking about, because PC?€™s don?€™t need to flip any seats, as a matter of fact the PC?€™s can lose 13 of the seats and still have a majority.
The fact is that NDP has held this riding for nearly 5 decades, don?€™t think that it?€™ll change this time
26/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
One of those seats the conservatives will have to pickup if they want to retain their majority. They're running a councillor, which seems like a decent enough choice, though the NDP has incumbent advantage. Given the NDP has finished 3rd here twice since the last Ontario election, I'll go out on a limb and see it's a PC pickup, though that's mostly guesswork at this point. Something has to explain the lower NDP polling numbers in Hamilton-Niagara
06/10/21 Chris Nethercott
In the last three federal election cycles, this riding has been a rare three-way race in the Golden Horseshoe. In next year's provincial election, I expect to see a race between the NDP and PCs. The PCs came very close to winning in 2018, but have selected a new candidate in 2022, local councillor Bob Gale. Incumbent NDP MPP Jeff Burch is running for re-election. Expect this to be a tight race come June.

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