Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Newmarket-Aurora


Prediction Changed
2022-03-05 13:56:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Czarnecka, Iwona

Duboisky, Yuri

Gallagher Murphy, Dawn

Heng, Denis

Mckenzie, Krista

Rodriguez, Carolina

Roy, Sylvain


Incumbent:
Christine Elliott

Population (2016):

117418
Population (2011):109457


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

CHRISTINE ELLIOTT
24,81347.71%
MELISSA WILLIAMS
12,40523.85%
CHRIS BALLARD *
11,84022.76%
MICHELLE BOURDEAU
1,8593.57%
DORIAN BAXTER
4470.86%
BOB YACIUK
2120.41%
LORI ROBBINS
1920.37%
DENIS VAN DECKER
1850.36%
DENIS GORLYNSKIY
600.12%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

19,062 44.12%
15,865 36.72%
5,157 11.94%
1,749 4.05%
OTHERS 1,371 3.17%
Total Transposed 43,205
      Component Riding(s)

Newmarket-Aurora
(99.08% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

York-Simcoe
(0.92% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Tony Van Bynen
26,48843.10%
Lois Brown
23,25237.80%
Yvonne Kelly
6,57610.70%
Walter Bauer
3,5515.80%
Dorian Baxter
9011.50%
Andrew McCaughtrie
5881.00%
Laurie Goble
1040.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kyle Peterson
25,50845.20%
Lois Brown **
24,05742.60%
Yvonne Kelly
4,8068.50%
Vanessa Long
1,3312.40%
Dorian Baxter
7621.30%


 

28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Health Minister Christine Elliott isn't running again this time. That said this seems to be more of a PC friendly area and the new PC candidate will hold the riding for the PCs
20/05/2022 DC44
99.253.231.41
If lawn signs meaning anything anymore then this riding does not appear to be a PC lock. Having driven the streets west of Yonge extensively the Liberals and PC's appear dead even. The other issue that will impact the outcome of the election in this riding is that Newmarket Aurora has the greatest concentration of public school teachers than any other riding in York Region. This explains the NDP surge in 2018 as a reaction to Bill 124.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Outgoing Deputy Premier and Health Minister Christine Elliott is retiring. I think new PC candidate Dawn Gallagher-Murphy will take it at this point, but if the Liberals pull ahead of the PCs, this seat could come more into play.
06/04/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Current mpp Christine Elliott recently announced that she is leaving politics. She has been an mpp since 2006 but only represented this riding since 2018. So her not being the candidate perhaps less of a factor than if she had been a longtime mpp for the riding. This area generally been pc provincially with 2014 being the only election I can recall a liberal being elected here provincially. Dawn Gallagher Murphy has been announced as the new pc candidate . Sylvain Roy is the new liberal candidate and Denis Heng ndp candidate.
05/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Despite Christine Elliott's star power, this was actually the weakest Tory riding in York Region in '18--and I doubt her parachute was a significant part of it; the riding's just too "sensible-shoes Southern Ontario urban heartland middle", while Ford Nation plays better within the ethnoburban and parvenu/trash balance of the Region. Or, it's a spiritual as well as literal island of Elliott Nation within Ford Nation, more of a piece w/her former bulwark of Whitby--where the Tories were even *weaker* (albeit still victorious) in '18. Though if we're to see '18 dynamics repeating themselves as a consequence, that could make it the most fatally "viable" riding for the NDP in York Region--not in the winnability sense, but in the Liberal-spoiler sense. (And that it's now an open seat rather than an Elliott reoffer makes little or no difference.)
08/03/22 AD
198.84.175.242
I am going out on a bit of a limb here. I grew up in this riding and it was very much conservative but that feels like it is slowly changing. Twice in a row now I've expected the riding to swing conservative federally and twice it hasn't. It is difficult to imagine that a close associate of Elliot will be all that popular against the LPO's candidate, who is a doctor, or the NDP candidate, who is an epidemiologist.
An interesting election to be sure that really comes down to, not so much issues around vote splitting in my opinion, but whether or not the Liberals can bring voters out again. I'm just not ready to count them out here, at least not yet.
04/03/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
Christine Elliott is retiring which means this will be a dog fight between the PC?€™s and the Liberals, however, the PC?€™s will prevail because since inception, the riding?€™s only gone Liberal once, and Hudak factor played a big role that year. Now, that?€™s not a thing anymore, and the PC?€™s are in the driver?€™s sest.
27/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This is the riding held by health minister Christine Elliott. It will likely stay blue in 2022.



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