Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 01:53:00

Constituency Profile



Cescon, George

Crombie, Brian

Cuzzetto, Rudy

Cynarska, Renata

Kole, Julia

Mendes, Elizabeth

Zeni, David

Rudy Cuzzetto

Population (2016):

Population (2011):118893

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

23,269 50.49%
15,420 33.45%
4,921 10.68%
1,471 3.19%
OTHERS 1,010 2.19%
Total Transposed 46,092
      Component Riding(s)

Mississauga South
(94.69% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(5.31% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Sven Spengemann **
Stella Ambler
Adam Laughton
Cynthia Trentelman
Eugen Vizitiu
Carlton Darby

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Sven Spengemann
Stella Ambler **
Eric Guerbilsky
Ariana Burgener
Paul Woodworth
Dagmar Sullivan


01/06/2022 JR_4406
I LIVE IN THIS RIDING - ML063 will likely flip to the Liberal column on tomorrow's election (June 2). Both iPolitics/Mainstreet and aggregator 338Canada have this riding Liberal. During the Blue Machine years (1943-2003) this riding was a safe, solid PC seat. However, since then large amounts of immigrants have settled down here from Eastern Europe, the Caribbean, India, China, and parts of Africa. Coming with them are their left-leaning/liberal ideologies. We this riding flipping red in 2003 and staying red in 2007, 2011, and 2014 with over 50% each time. 2018 was an odd year - a Liberal party exhausted after 15 years and a deeply unpopular leader. Finance Minister Charles Sousa lost to PC Rudy Cuzzetto in 2018 but with 42% for PC compared to 35% for Liberal Sousa - a strong performance. I suspect in 2022, this riding will come back Liberal. The Liberal candidate Elizabeth Mendes is a public policy expert, former Liberal staff, community builder, and long-term care home director. Rudy Cuzzetto has been unable to build a strong base in the riding, in part to minimal local accomplishments and low-name recognition. Peel Region is historically Liberal. The provincial campaign has been performing well. The local Liberal is also very strong - a massive GOTV effort. The NDP vote has collapsed and rallied around the Liberals. Strong Liberal performance in advance polls reflect that. Lots of Liberal signs I may add.
28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
At the federal level this riding is going to be facing a by election soon following the resignation of the current MP there. Federally it's Liberal but provincially it's PC and I have them continuing after June 2.
19/05/2022 R.O.
Historically Mississauga Lakeshore is a pc riding provincially, it only went liberal by a small margin in 2003 when the liberals swept the Toronto area. and stayed liberal for the next couple elections cause Charles Sousa was a high profile mpp. Former Mississauga mayor Hazel Mccallion has also endorsed Doug Ford which is a boost for the pcs in Mississauga. Also surprising news out last night that ridings federal liberal mp has resigned for a job at the UN and will be a by election here later this year but that doesnt really affect the provincial race much. Rudy Cuzzetto still has the edge here.
19/05/2022 CD
Given historical patterns, even though PCs start with an edge the odds are good that the Liberals can flip many Mississauga ridings, including this one. Latest polling doesn't have the gap between PCs and Liberals large enough in the GTA to give the PCs space in places like Mississauga.
01/05/2022 seasaw
@LeftCoast, I dont know which tide youre talking about but I dont see any indication of a Liberal tide coming in Mississauga or anywhere in the province for that fact. I do agree with you that Rudy will be re-elected here in June, I also agree that if Charles Sousa was running again, this race wouldve been a lot more interesting to watch. The current Liberal candidate, Elizabeth Mendes, is a virtual unknown. Now, many might say, so was Rudy 4 years ago and he won, but he won because 4 years ago the Liberals imploded like never before. And while it is possible that the PCs may implode in the same fashion, theres no evidence of that happening yet, so its not very probable. By the way things stand now, Rudy along with nearly all other Mississauga PCs will be re-elected, of course things may change but then again, they may not.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
I'm going to put my neck out and say that Rudy Cuzzetto will be the one PC MPP to overcome the Liberal tide in Mississauga. If Sousa ran again he would have a more than 50/50 shot, but the Liberals went with a low-profile candidate against popular Cuzzetto.
08/04/22 R.O.
Rudy Cuzzetto was first elected here in 2018 , he was a new relatively low profile candidate who managed to beat high profile liberal mpp Charles Sousa. The strong liberal numbers here in 2018 were definitely cause of the liberal candidate being high profile not the riding itself. A lot of ridings where the liberals likely to do a bit better cause numbers so low last election but I don’t think this is one of them. New liberal candidate is Elizabeth Mendes and ndp yet to select one.
06/04/22 A.S.
Look at it this way: depending on the weather, it can be claimed as *both* the most Conservative *and* the most Liberal riding in Mississauga--and it's in the same way that a UK constituency can be Tory/Lib Dem marginal in a sea of Labour, or a suburban BC riding can be a BC Liberal holdout in a sea of NDP. And in a Doug Ford era, this goes *especially* for who was left voting Liberal in '18--it was an affluent/gentility-class rump vote that resisted the blue-collar-ethnoburban-friendly big tent of Ford Nation. Plus, re seasaw's statements, 1987 and 1990 don't really count in the bigger picture, much as it doesn't in the case of Markham (whose present Tory strength bears little or no relationship to the kind of Tory strength that prevailed in those years), and '87 was scarcely a "decent margin" case (few PC victories were that year)--indeed, it might even be argued that it was a similar affluent-rump dynamic saving the Tories in '87 and salvaging lost face for the Libs in '18. And '03 wasn't exactly a "star candidate" case for the Libs, unless being a lesser brother of former premier Peterson counts (and so "lesser" that he jumped to the Tories next election and got whumped by Sousa). At the present, if it's actually the *likeliest* riding to flip in Misissauga, it's because there's no doubt as to what the "true" opposition party is--and also, if Mississauga were an extension of Toronto, it'd be the likeliest Mississauga riding to have opted mayorally for John Tory over Doug Ford in '14.
30/03/22 Finn
This riding is a very interesting riding. The Liberals actually had a very solid performance in 2018 despite their collapse. The question is, was that an anomaly or not? And how much of it was due to popular incumbent Charles Sousa. At this point, I would say that this riding leans Liberal. I do think that there are some factors last time around that allowed it to be so close, and while I do not necessarily think that those factors are here this time around, I certainly do not think this riding is PC as projected currently. This will be a riding to watch.
15/03/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
I think this is fairly comparable to eglinton lawrence or similar, a pretty wealthy ?€?snobbish?€™ riding, which is not where ford appeals, though it would be the most conservative riding in Mississauga under different leaders due to that wealth. I'm not really sure how much of an effect there would have been if Sousa didn't run last time, and if that is what made it competitive. This should be the first riding to flip away from the PCs in mississauga if some are to flip
06/03/22 seasaw
Those who think that this is a winnable riding for the Liberals, probably aren?€™t familiar with this riding. Even if the Liberals were to win the election ( possible but highly improbable) this would be one of the last ridings that would flip. Remember, the PC?€™s held this seat in 1987 and 1990, and by decent margins I must add, in elections when they finished 3rd. Remember in 2003, the Liberals were at a near all time high and with their star candidate, they took this by under 200 votes. Last election this may have been close, but there was a couple of reasons, firstly, everyone was scared of Doug Ford, that?€™s not an issue this time, secondly, a gentleman named Charles Sousa. Charles was very well liked in the riding, which contributed to his strong showing, this time he?€™s not running, so I expect Rudy, who?€™s also well liked to win this by a decent margin.
13/12/21 ZO
Mississauga-Lakeshore is a weird one. Federally, it is the most Conservative riding in all of Peel.
In 2018, it was actually one of the closer ridings in Mississauga. So, I don't think we should be rushed to make a call either way. However, I am leaning to make a Liberal call.
Basically, it's a Liberal-PC race, with traditionally Conservative leanings (compared to the rest of the region) but still usually goes Liberal by a slim margin federally, and perhaps a larger margin provincially.
29/11/21 John W.
I still think it's a bit of an uphill battle for Rudy Cuzzetto here. Yes, he received more votes than any other candidate in Peel in 2018, but in the same election Charles Sousa received the fourth-largest number of votes in Peel and by far the most votes of any non-winning candidate in the region. The Liberals are not nearly as unpopular as they were four years ago, and their candidate Elizabeth Mendes is an effective campaigner with strong ties to the community, so I expect a competitive race whichever way it goes.
26/08/21 Michael
Contrary to some of the other comments here, Mississauga-Lakeshore is probably the most PC riding in Peel, and the *least* likely to flip back to the Liberals. In 2018, Rudy Cuzzetto won more votes than any other candidate in Peel (Mississauga or Brampton). He's also been an incredibly strong constituency MPP, delivering significant funding to the riding (new hospital, new long-term care, new hospice, new BRT, new affordable housing etc.). If the PCs lose ridings in Peel, I don't expect Lakeshore to be one of them.
30/07/21 Cory
This might be the only seat the PC's lose in Peel. Sousa wasn't able to overcome the albatross that was the Wynne Liberals. The Liberals aren't nearly as reviled now as they were in 2018, and even a small bump in their province-wide polling should help them pick up this riding.
10/07/21 John W
All indicators point to this being a winnable riding for the Liberals. The party's candidate, Elizabeth Mendes, has a lot of public policy experience and close ties to Charles Sousa from his days as Ontario's finance minister. Sousa is still well-liked in the riding and he came much closer to keeping the seat in 2018 than any other Liberal MPPs in Mississauga. Meanwhile, PC incumbent Rudy Cuzzetto has not made much of an impact as a backbencher over the last three years. It may be a close race, but I expect the Conservatives will have a tough time hanging on to this seat.
26/06/21 Hammer
Unlike some contributors I'll keep my comment to one Peel riding. In order for the Conservatives to retain their majority they need to keep their Peel seats yet they've done nothing to retain them. In fact, they've done everything to lose them -- disregarding the Greenbelt, MZOs, highway expansion, etc. Look for the Liberals to win some Mississauga ridings and the NDP to focus on Brampton.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all six Mississauga seats, Ford did not elevate a single Mississauga MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the province's second largest city!) Mississauga ridings have almost consistently been the bellweather indicators both provincially and federally in the past couple decades. If Ford is back in as premier, most of the six Mississauga PC MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out as premier, none will buck the trend.
14/05/21 Chris N
If the Liberals gain steam in Peel region, anticipate Mississauga Lakeshore to be one of the first that flips back to red.

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