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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Mississauga-Erin Mills


Prediction Changed
2022-05-20 14:43:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Angkasa, Michelle

Hassan, Farina

Mian, Imran

Sabawy, Sheref

Scarangella, Laura E.

Wroblewski, Charles


Incumbent:
Sheref Sabawy

Population (2016):

122560
Population (2011):117199


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

SHEREF SABAWY
19,63141.61%
FARINA HASSAN
13,02127.60%
IMRAN MIAN
11,96525.36%
LIBBY YUILL
1,2962.75%
GRZEGORZ NOWACKI
6701.42%
PIETER LIEM
4831.02%
BEN SKURA
1120.24%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,429 49.26%
10,385 29.35%
5,361 15.15%
826 2.33%
OTHERS 1,385 3.91%
Total Transposed 35,384
      Component Riding(s)

Mississauga-Erindale
(99.98% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Halton
(0.02% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Iqra Khalid **
31,18153.50%
Hani Tawfilis
19,05032.70%
Salman Tariq
5,2369.00%
Remo Boscarino-Gaetano
2,1473.70%
Hazar Alsabagh
6481.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Iqra Khalid
27,52049.70%
Bob Dechert **
21,71639.20%
Michelle Bilek
5,2069.40%
Andrew Roblin
9051.60%


 

28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Surprised to see a PC prediction here given there are no PC predictions listed. I think the Liberals will win this riding back in a close battles with the PCs.
19/05/2022 CD
66.234.34.46
Given historical patterns, even though PCs start with an edge the odds are good that the Liberals can flip many Mississauga ridings, including this one. Latest polling doesn't have the gap between PCs and Liberals large enough in the GTA to give the PCs space in places like Mississauga.
01/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Mississauga has been an area the liberals have done well in, in past elections but seen little evidence Del Duca is well known in this city or that liberals ahead here. the pcs have done well in Mississauga when there in power, they held these ridings in 95-99 elections much like they did in 2018. Despite having ran here in 2018 I doubt many people here even know much about Imran Mian the liberal candidate. Farina Hassan the 2018 ndp candidate who did exceptional well by ndp standards in Mississauga is also back as there candidate. Sheref Sabaway goes into the election as the incumbent which provides him with some more profile than the other candidates.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Returning 2018 Liberal candidate Imran Mian will top Sheref Sabawy of the PCs. Big swing to the Liberals in Missisagua.
06/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Mian isn't precisely a *new* Lib candidate--he ran in '18; and like many reoffering Libs is hoping that the unexpected past 3rd place finish is more due to the circumstances of the moment (it probably helps that it was a quarter-of-the-vote 3rd place: not bad for a non-incumbent in '18, both here and in Mississauga Centre--in a ghostly way, Mississauga's natural Lib inclinations endured). But if the Ford Gov't's going to endure, it's due to the '18-generated opposition confusion in places like Mississauga--are the Libs well enough to support? Is the NDP viable enough to support instead? Are the Ford Tories *really* *that* worth "stopping"? That's the line of questioning that often leads to nose-holding status quo results--or breakthroughs...
29/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Sheref Sabaway was first elected in the 2018 election , the riding had no incumbent that year but had previously been liberal. relatively low profile mpp but is one of the more tory friendly parts of Mississauga and had a cpc mp from 2008-2015 federally . Imran Mian is the new liberal candidate and ndp yet to select a candidate. Ndp came in second here last time which was a first as they almost always come in 3rd in this area.
18/06/21 JW
45.41.168.96
Despite winning all six Mississauga seats, Ford did not elevate a single Mississauga MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the province's second largest city!) Mississauga ridings have almost consistently been the bellweather indicators both provincially and federally in the past couple decades. If Ford is back in as premier, most of the six Mississauga PC MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out as premier, none will buck the trend.



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