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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Markham-Stouffville


Prediction Changed
2022-04-28 22:56:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Calandra, Paul

Dunn, Kelly

Gowland, Jennifer

Kwok, Kingsley

O'Brien, Myles

Petit, Michele


Incumbent:
Paul Calandra

Population (2016):

126064
Population (2011):109780


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

PAUL CALANDRA
25,91248.12%
HELENA JACZEK *
14,00726.01%
KINGSLEY KWOK
10,99720.42%
JOSE ETCHEVERRY
2,1534.00%
PAUL BALFOUR
6601.23%
YURI DUBOISKY
1170.22%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,701 48.47%
14,559 34.09%
5,176 12.12%
1,561 3.66%
OTHERS 712 1.67%
Total Transposed 42,708
      Component Riding(s)

Oak Ridges-Markham
(90.70% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Markham-Unionville
(9.30% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Helena Jaczek
25,05538.90%
Theodore Antony
19,70330.60%
Jane Philpott **
13,34020.70%
Hal Berman
4,1326.40%
Roy Long
1,6212.50%
Jeremy Lin
5370.80%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Jane Philpott
29,41649.20%
Paul Calandra **
25,56542.80%
Gregory Hines
3,6476.10%
Myles O'Brien
1,1451.90%


 

27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
I have Paul Calandra keeping this seat in the PC column.
27/04/22 WesternLeftist
207.194.253.26
This will likely be an easy hold for the PCs (at least by suburban 905 standards), and Ford loyalist Paul Calandra will return to Queen's Park for a second term.
05/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
If Del Duca's setting York Region sights higher than his own seat, this could actually be targetable--it was one of a pair of '18 PC submajorities in York Region, some of that due to Helena Jaczek's vestigial strength, some of that due to Calandra's abrasive rep from his Federal stint, and some of that due to an undercurrent of "Jane Philpott Brahmin" that's particularly marked among the "old stock" populace in Stouffville and Old Markham. Indeed, '18's biggest epicentres of Lib support were gated golf/adult-lifestyle communities like Ballantrae and Swan Lake Village, places that would once have been assumed to be solid Tory--that's how things have flipped around in the Ford era. (But more foretellingly/ominously ethno-Millennial a la Jagmeet was how places like Box Grove became *NDP* 2nd.)
24/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Paul Calandra was first elected here provincially in 2018 , he had previously been an mp for the same area but not exactly the same riding from 2008-2015. New liberal candidate is Kelly Dunn as former mpp Helena Jaczek is now mp for this riding. Its unclear who the ndp will run here but they typically don?€™t focus on York region.
26/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
23.248.145.246
I think that unless the election really starts going the Liberal's way, this will stay safely PC. One of the worst NDP seats in the province



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