Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

London West

Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Boudreau, Jacques Y

Harness, Brad

Hunt, Kristopher

Lalonde, Vanessa

Mccauley, Colleen

Mcmullen, Mike

Paolatto, Paul

Sattler, Peggy

Workman, Cynthia

Peggy Sattler

Population (2016):

Population (2011):119090

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

12,373 23.67%
15,634 29.91%
20,999 40.17%
2,149 4.11%
OTHERS 1,119 2.14%
Total Transposed 52,273
      Component Riding(s)

London West
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kate Young **
Liz Snelgrove
Shawna Lewkowitz
Mary Ann Hodge
Mike Mcmullen
Jacques Boudreau

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kate Young
Ed Holder **
Matthew Rowlinson
Dimitri Lascaris
Jacques Y. Boudreau
Michael Lewis


27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I have the NDP winning here and completing the London sweep at the provincial level.
14/05/2022 Nysuloem
Peggy Satler should win this riding, especially since the Liberal candidate is virtually unknown and her campaign has been so dysfunctional that they don't even have election signs printed and displayed anywhere yet. At the same time, Paul Paolatto has good name recognition, having run for mayor in the last municipal election, and, at least in my opinion, he seems like a more moderate conservative than some of the previous candidates. I will say, though, that the "scandal" with Stephen Lecce, and the NDP's high-horse response to it, may actually turn off some potential NDP voters in this riding.
14/05/2022 prog15
Unlike in London North-Centre, the Lib candidate is nominal, and the left vote is clearly behind NDP left populist, heavy spending and political oppression-pushing incumbent (including more vaccinations, most recently) who also clearly represents freedom-hating progressivist academe and left education circles, by background and family connections. Paul Paolatto of the PCs is well known from a London mayoral run of 2018 and is somewhat of a half-Liberal that may unite anti-NDP forces based on the fact many viewed him as a more left-leaning alternative to the winner Ed Holder in that mayoral run. He might have had a better chance in London North-Centre where the Libs may take some vote from the NDP, however. In London West, the race is more interesting than the last two times, but ultimately the incomparable links Peggy Sattler has created to all sorts of non-profits, community groups, event organizers and the vast spending constituency, combined with the destruction London City council inflicted on many areas by academe-advised urban intensification that brought in more of spending constituents and the departure of a wealthier portion of business-based sector, creates a much stronger position for the NDP incumbent.
05/05/2022 SarahMitts
Obviously an easy win for the NDP for the 2022 and likely the next election. What is interesting for me is that this is a long-term target for the dead and defeated Ontario Liberal party in southwestern Ontario (federally this riding is held by Liberals) and any improvement in % of vote for 2022 will be closely analyzed. For future elections beyond 2022, the Liberals will need a mega candidate with well established roots in the neighbourhood. Otherwise, they might as well nominate a carpetbagger/placeholder candidate and fight for third and possibly fourth place finishes for multiple election cycles to come.
27/04/22 WesternLeftist
This would normally be a target riding for both the Liberals and PCs, but NDP incumbent Peggy Sattler remains beloved by her constituents and should be able to hang on.
20/04/22 A.S.
London West as safe NDP makes sense in the same byelection-foot-in-the-door way as Waterloo as safe NDP; and yes, 55-from-40 is much more of a rise than 55-from-50 in Fanshawe, but given riding demos and '18 trends the NDP was destined to be significantly higher and safely positioned than in '14 anyway (that is, even a competent Lawton candidacy wouldn't have stood in Sattler's way). And that the *federal* Dippers have normalized into the low-to-mid-20s (vs still being mired in the teens in Waterloo) shows how much we've gone more broadly beyond the old designated-Dipper-wasteland London West pigeonhole. It's even a bit complicated to judge in swing-riding terms--maybe a bit clearer federally than provincially, where things in London were divided in 3 N-S rather than E-W pre-'99, and where the Peterson wave bathed everything in solid red in the late 80s. And it certainly didn't feel terribly swing-ridingish when Chris Bentley held it for the Libs pre-Sattler. But yeah; it's all because Sattler got her foot in the door early, and decisively, to the point of why-bother-now, it's not like London Westers are dying for a seat in PC government or primed to piggyback off Kate Graham (perhaps) next door. And it's those Sattler/Fife-style puzzle pieces that help explain how the ONDP got to be a credible Official Opposition in the first place. But if anything's an ominous rumble on the horizon for Sattler to be alert for, it isn't "swing-ridingdom" per se, but the fact that the Tories are running a star candidate of sorts (the runner-up in the '18 London mayoral race).
04/04/22 R.O.
Peggy Sattler was first elected here in a 2013 by election and held the seat during the 2 general elections since. But something about London West being a safe ndp riding doesn’t agree with me not that an ndp hold this year is not possible. Just it has a long history of being a swing riding. The pc candidate here in 2018 was also very controversial , Andrew Lawton is not a bad person but his campaign here last election was a disaster. Which might explain why the ndp got 55 % of the vote much higher than the 40 % they got in past 2 elections. So would expect more of a normal race here , Paul Paolatto is the new pc candidate and liberals appear to be nominating Vanessa Lalonde.
Another easy NDP hold in my opinion. Sattler finished with one of the highest total vote counts of any New Democrat back in 2018.

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