Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

London North Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-22 13:08:00

Constituency Profile



Caldwell, Tommy

Dyck, Carol

Graham, Kate

Grant, Darrel

Kernaghan, Terence

Le Mac, George

Mckeever, Paul

Pribil, Jerry

Terence Devin Kernaghan

Population (2016):

Population (2011):118079

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,610 36.37%
12,144 26.59%
13,682 29.96%
2,406 5.27%
OTHERS 829 1.81%
Total Transposed 45,671
      Component Riding(s)

London North Centre
(92.47% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

London West
(7.53% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fragiskatos **
Sarah Bokhari
Dirka Prout
Carol Dyck
Salim Mansur
Clara Sorrenti

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fragiskatos
Susan Truppe **
German Gutierrez
Carol Dyck
Marvin Roman


31/05/2022 seasaw
Initially, I thought this would be a race between Kernaghan and Graham, but as it turns out the PCs are running a strong campaign and the premier has made a couple of stops here hoping to snatch a seat or two. Thats not going to happen and Terrence Kernaghan will probably end up winning big this time. Kate Graham has to settle for third place.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Kate Graham will fall just short here once again and the NDP will retain this seat.
25/05/2022 FormerGrit
Graham and her team honestly believe she is in this race, and she is not. She will be a distant third again. It's sad when candidates and their teams are this out of touch - which tells you exactly what they would be like if they ever get elected. She's a nice enough person, but this is not in the cards and she should have been smart enough to know that.
21/05/2022 ME
London North Centre had been a Tossup but the NDP will prevail over Graham as the liberals fall short provincially and the leader loses his seat again
20/05/2022 Gone Fishing
I am very confident the commies will hold all three seats they had coming in. Graham is as inspiring as her leader, Del Duca. Private home Lawn signs (as opposed to boulevard signs) have all dippers re-elected. If you dont like the term commies well Im offended by the multitudes who insist conservatives are right wingers.
14/05/2022 prog15
Graham is a rather typical pied piper of a statist control-happy academia-based freedom-hating progressivism, and a face of Liberal-centred collusion between entitled academic fiefdom of well funded junk sciences promoting such control (climate change, diversity studies of all sorts, pseudo-vaccines for COVID etc.) and a sleazy city council where her live-in partner, and probably City of London's worst councillor Jesse Helmer is a key promoter of restrictive 'climate emergency'-scares based measures, greenery-destroying development intensification under the 'green' slogans and wasteful and unneeded public transport projects, among others. Although all this is strongly disliked by a substantial portion of London ratepayers (and a claimed rather ideological 'expertise' in all matters municipal plus a clearly elitist image of the candidate do not really help!), it matters a lot because a powerful Big Urban-Big Academe machine of professional political operators will be helping her to win over the hesitant sections of the large UWO-connected constituency (those who benefit less clearly from government waste or directly from the Liberals in power than her own close circle). Combine this with the naive perception of Canadian progressivist dictatorship and of the Liberal brand at large by many newcomers with no clear attachments who settle permanently in University ridings, and with often-discussed traditional Liberal power in LNC (all that Matthews/Peterson stuff), and you have a strong challenge. If Graham pushes somewhere in the area of doubling her 2018 vote and Kernaghan share goes down substantially by about the same number, it would also give PCs a fair chance of winning, even with a slight increase in 2018 vote to say, 35% (a higher % is unrealistic, in particular after Premier Ford upset some supporters with own version of Faucian junk science of vaccination mandates - in favor of smaller parties of the right - this may be more important in other ridings, though). While Graham or Pribil wins are possible, however, NDP chances remain overwhelming. The incumbent had a huge margin of win in 2018 and just bringing to the polls some 90% of the past supporters and literally not trying to gain anything else will nearly assure his victory. First, the perception is of the NDP being the only party able to defeat PCs (no matter what the changing polls claim) is of great importance to progressives of all sorts and their allies. Replacing an incumbent NDP member will thus be difficult. Kernaghan allies quite well with what HIS supporters want (including the indoctrinating academe Graham appeals to), and there is really no reason for them to change the vote, in particular as Liberal challenge to NDP is of Tweedledum nature, with no differences in values; only PCs are somewhat distinct. The recommendations of the many activist ABC vote promoters will remain split for this riding which ultimately benefits the incumbent. Concerns of bringing a very viable PC candidate in will also prevent vote move from Kernaghan to Graham. History is also on NDP side as the mismanagement of Wynne government is very much on the minds of voters; Rae's NDP mismanagement is generation old (1990-1995) and barely matters today (anyway, THAT past leader ran away to the Libs later). More speculatively, I doubt whether the (not too well hidden) elite Lib push to elect Graham due to her Lib leader potential assumes too much in thinking progressives elect candidates on THAT basis; if anything, it is a Big Academe/ Big Wasteful Urban Machine candidacy in the hopes of being elected on a 'pretty face' basis (like Trudeau election?). Elite conspiracy, never to be disregarded, may still upset the incumbent, in particular if NDP does not campaign here in exchange for Liberals not challenging NDP in the strongholds of London Fanshawe and West, but there is little evidence for this at present. The likeliest outcome remains Kernaghan campaigning actively, with full support from his party, and gaining a strong plurality that allows NDP to keep its hold on southwestern Ontario cities as a basis for potential government or a very strong opposition. It is a tough race with some options, but probabilities of an NDP hold are clearly the highest.
12/05/2022 Gone Fishing
Park my vote Liberalism has made this a very interesting three way race. Dont rule out Jerry Pribil winning this one as the NDP and Liberals second guess who has the better chance to beat the PCs. This riding has been home to some giants over the years. Very qualified women have fought over this turf who can forget NDP premier slayer Marion Boyd and red Tory Dianne Cunningham facing off when their districts were re-alligned into LNC. Deb Matthews held it. Parts of the riding were former premier David Petersons home turf.
With due respect, the incumbent was never in this league of political giants. He has proven to be a good constituent worker from all accounts I hear.
Kate Graham undoubtedly has the most political experience based on her career as a political science professor, Jerry Pribil owns one of those icon types of independent restaurants in the core of the city and is perhaps more worldly as an immigrant who has made a life for himself here doing something he obviously loves. Not one of these three is a parachute candidate, there is nothing to point to anyone of them being uninvolved in their community and I believe this could be the most exciting election night watch in the city. None are a dynamo but each is someone who could represent the district well.
If party politics did not enter the equation this would be the most civil and well fought campaign of the election. Followed by a three way coin toss to determine the winner after judicial recounts.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Terence Kernaghan is a great MPP but the Liberals drearily want Kate Graham in their caucus and will spend the resources to make sure this happens. With improving Liberal numbers in SW Ontario, this is one of the few seats within the region that they can grasp.
20/04/22 A.S.
Coming off her leadership run (and before that in '18, her being the strongest Lib SW of Kitchener, and strongest non-incumbent Lib SW of Halton Region), Graham is evidently the cornerstone of the Libs' efforts to regain a toehold in SW Ontario (and within the Peterson/Matthews family fiefdom, why not). And as good as Kernaghan might be, and as strong as his party's current London machine might be--and even as foretelling of the same Deb Matthews' close call in '14 might have been--he's up against, I don't know, a potential reverse version of Dennis Mills vs Jack Layton federally in '04. Which *could* also loosen up other seats for the NDP if all that potentially opposition-splitting SW Ontario Lib energy is expended in this one seat (again, shades of Layton in '04, inadvertently precipitating the defeat of Chow in '04).
07/04/22 Chris N
Nearly a year after my first prediction, I still can't confidently call this an NDP hold. Yes, the Liberals have a very large margin to overcome from 2018. However, as noted in my first prediction, Graham is front-and-centre for the Liberal campaign. She is frequently in media hits and is a regular guest on TV panels. Also, based on a scan of social media, Graham seems to have an enthusiastic team of volunteers, which could help make her competitive. It's admirable she decided to run in LNC, given that she probably could have parachuted into a more Liberal friendly seat, such as the vacant Don Valley East or West seats in Toronto.
06/04/22 R.O.
Terence Kernaghan was first elected here in 2018 , he beat former mp Susan Truppe who ran for the pc’s she had been mp for 1 term in 2011. Riding had no incumbent as liberal Deb Matthews retired that year and new candidate Kate Graham ran. She is also there candidate once again this election. Type of riding ndp should be able to hold but it had been pc’s in the 90’s when Diane Cunningham mpp but new candidate Jerry Pribil isn’t high profile. And if the liberals get any traction in south western Ontario it be one of the places you’s expect them to do better in but the ndp seem to be gaining ground in London so not sure.
02/04/22 AD
Doesn't seem like much of a debate to me, citing everything earlier posters have said.
19/03/22 seasaw
Kate Graham is running again. And while she is a great candidate, and very well suited for a riding like London North Centre, she?€™s running against Terrence, just like she did the last time. The last time she lost, because her party imploded and her leader was despised. This time, she is running against one of the best MPP?€™s, one who?€™s very well respected on both sides of the house, and has done a tremendous job for his constituents. So no contest here, Terrence should easily take this one.
30/07/21 Cory
The NDP should easily retain this riding. If the NDP vote collapses below 20% province-wide, this riding might be in play.
06/07/21 Allen
Fairly confident the NDP will hold this one. Terrance has been an extremely effective MPP and has a really strong ground-game. Kate Graham, however, is a force. This is one of those rare situations where two candidates are actually super genuine people who just want to help. However, my money (and vote) is on an NDP hold.
01/07/21 KXS
Kate Graham is seen as a key player in the renewal of the Ontario Liberals, but I don't think that necessary enough to defeat an NDP incumbent in a city where they have a relatively strong base of support.
There is a difference between a star for the party and a star candidate.
21/05/21 Chris N
In 2018, the NDP won this riding for the first time since the riding was created in 1999. Kate Graham, the 2018 Liberal candidate, placed a distant third, but was nominated again for 2022 following an impressive showing in last year's Liberal Leadership race. Graham was the first candidate nominated for the Liberals this election, suggesting that the party will place a lot of resources into the riding.

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