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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

London North Centre


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:55
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Graham, Kate

Kernaghan, Terence

Pribil, Jerry


Incumbent:
Terence Devin Kernaghan

Population (2016):

125362
Population (2011):118079


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

TERENCE DEVIN KERNAGHAN
25,75747.60%
SUSAN TRUPPE
16,70130.86%
KATE GRAHAM
8,50115.71%
CAROL DYCK
2,4934.61%
CALVIN MCKAY
2990.55%
PAUL MCKEEVER
2340.43%
CLARA SORRENTI
1280.24%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,610 36.37%
12,144 26.59%
13,682 29.96%
2,406 5.27%
OTHERS 829 1.81%
Total Transposed 45,671
      Component Riding(s)

London North Centre
(92.47% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

London West
(7.53% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fragiskatos **
27,24742.70%
Sarah Bokhari
15,06623.60%
Dirka Prout
14,88723.40%
Carol Dyck
4,8727.60%
Salim Mansur
1,5322.40%
Clara Sorrenti
1370.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fragiskatos
32,42750.50%
Susan Truppe **
19,99031.10%
German Gutierrez
9,42314.70%
Carol Dyck
2,2863.60%
Marvin Roman
1450.20%


 

30/07/2021 Cory
2.57.169.239
The NDP should easily retain this riding. If the NDP vote collapses below 20% province-wide, this riding might be in play.
06/07/2021 Allen
135.23.232.40
Fairly confident the NDP will hold this one. Terrance has been an extremely effective MPP and has a really strong ground-game. Kate Graham, however, is a force. This is one of those rare situations where two candidates are actually super genuine people who just want to help. However, my money (and vote) is on an NDP hold.
01/07/2021 KXS
99.247.130.189
Kate Graham is seen as a key player in the renewal of the Ontario Liberals, but I don't think that necessary enough to defeat an NDP incumbent in a city where they have a relatively strong base of support.
There is a difference between a star for the party and a star candidate.
21/05/21 1 Chris N
24.36.32.209
In 2018, the NDP won this riding for the first time since the riding was created in 1999. Kate Graham, the 2018 Liberal candidate, placed a distant third, but was nominated again for 2022 following an impressive showing in last year's Liberal Leadership race. Graham was the first candidate nominated for the Liberals this election, suggesting that the party will place a lot of resources into the riding.



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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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