Kitchener South-Hespeler

	Dixon, Jess
	Gillies, David
	Mohamed, Ismail
	Teat, John
	Weber, David
	Weston, Joanne

Incumbent:

		Amy Fee
Population (2016):			105309
Population (2011):			97673
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		AMY FEE
		16,511	38.86%
		FITZROY VANDERPOOL
		15,741	37.05%
		SUREKHA SHENOY
		6,335	14.91%
		DAVID WEBER
		3,198	7.53%
		NATHAN ANDRE LAJEUNESSE
		423	1.00%
		NARINE SOOKRAM
		275	0.65%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		12,403	36.53%
		10,894	32.08%
		7,895	23.25%
		2,124	6.26%
	OTHERS	638	1.88%
	Total Transposed		33,955
Component Riding(s)
	Kitchener-Conestoga (64.94% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Cambridge (26.73% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Kitchener Centre (8.33% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Marwan Tabbara **
		20,986	40.20%
		Alan Keeso
		17,480	33.50%
		Wasai Rahimi
		6,945	13.30%
		David Weber
		5,671	10.90%
		Joseph Todd
		1,005	1.90%
		Matthew Correia
		90	0.20%
		Elaine Baetz
		56	0.10%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Marwan Tabbara
		20,215	42.30%
		Marian Gagné
		17,544	36.70%
		Lorne Bruce
		7,440	15.60%
		David Weber
		1,767	3.70%
		Nathan Lajeunesse
		772	1.60%
		Elaine Baetz
		91	0.20%

	29/05/2022	dtcaslick 74.12.184.254
No opinion here. I don't think this is an automatic PC riding, as their incumbent is gone and this riding doesn't have established trends. Dixon, the PC candidate, is formidable but inexperienced. Weston, the NDP candidate has deep community roots and has a political background, if not a long-term one. This was close last time, but how much of that was star power from local celeb and NDP candidate Fitz "the Whip" Vanderpool...? We'll see, but I think it will be close and that vote splitting on the right may be more of an issue than polling has detected.
	27/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
The incumbent PC MPP, Amy Fee, isn't running again. I have the new PC candidate, Jess Dixon, winning a close race here on June 2
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Strong candidates all around, but my gut tells me Jess Dixon of the PCs will hold retiring MPP Amy Fee's seat. Could easily go Liberal if their provincewide numbers improve, though.
	20/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
I don't think you can deny that if the NDP had any brains, they'd "go all in" here--and remember that in '18, whatever the calibre of the candidate, there would still, yes, still have been some "uh, I don't know..." among voters when it came to *committing* to a party which had spent the better part of a quarter century in the Rae-shadow cooler. Novelty vs caution, that sort of thing. And even under DoFo, the Tories were viewed that year as a generic "cautious choice". So if the NDP seeks to use '18 as foundational proof that they aren't such a high-risk novelty anymore, why not--whether it works or not is another matter; but under that circumstance, who knows whether the NDP's poised to gain at the PCs' expense just as much as the Libs are, a certain all-purpose pan-ideological "floating voter" out there. (Though where the growth is doesn't necessarily correspond with NDP-amenability--still, after '18, one never knows.)
	24/03/22	seasaw 69.157.38.158
@Cal Joanne Weston ? Star candidate? Great name recognition? She?¢â‚¬â„¢s a school board trustees and not all that recognized nor a very good trustee. I expect the Liberals to do a lot better this time around. They probably will get more than 20% support.
	22/03/22	Cal 24.51.232.97
A star candidate with great name recognition. Look for the NDP to go all in for this seat.
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Amy Fee who was elected here in 2018 as a pc candidate indicated a well back that she would not run again. So as an open race tough to get a feel for at this point. All the main 3 parties running new candidates , Jess Dixon pc , Joanne Weston ndp and Ismail Mohamed liberal. one of those lets wait and see how the election is going before commenting further
	02/03/22	KXS 72.137.76.35
At the moment a PC hold, but things can change. Horwath's NDP does pretty well in Waterloo region. This is a riding I would put in the NDP column if they are consistently polling above 30%. Right now they are not there. The Liberals have a long shot in this riding. If they start to get a bounce in the polls, they can probably sweep Waterloo region including this riding.
	25/08/21	Chris N 24.36.46.234
According to CTV, the PC incumbent Amy Fee will not run in 2022, citing family obligations. This could be a potential pick-up for the NDP, as they came just short in 2018.
	09/08/21	Sam 92.40.94.76
Kitchener South was too narrow a riding last time to be considered safe - barring another large PC majority, they'll have a fight on their hands here. This is a growing riding with enough suburban communities where the Liberals could put up a decent total. If non-PC voters coalesce round either one of the two other parties, then that party will win.