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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Kingston and the Islands


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:55
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Hsu, Ted


Incumbent:
Ian Arthur

Population (2016):

117543
Population (2011):116996


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

IAN ARTHUR
21,78839.16%
SOPHIE KIWALA *
15,31227.52%
GARY BENNETT
14,51226.08%
ROBERT KILEY
3,5746.42%
HEATHER CUNNINGHAM
2740.49%
ANDRE IMBEAULT
1840.33%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

19,698 42.06%
9,744 20.80%
13,781 29.42%
3,388 7.23%
OTHERS 224 0.48%
Total Transposed 46,836
      Component Riding(s)

Kingston and the Islands
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Gerretsen **
31,20545.80%
Barrington Walker
15,85623.30%
Ruslan Yakoviychuk
13,30419.50%
Candice Christmas
6,0598.90%
Andy Brooke
1,7692.60%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Gerretsen
36,42155.40%
Andy Brooke
14,92822.70%
Daniel Beals **
11,18517.00%
Nathan Townend
2,9334.50%
Luke McAllister
3050.50%


 

05/08/2021 KingstonLocal
192.139.37.253
MPP Ian Arthur will face a much stronger challenger in this election as former MP Ted Hsu returns to politics. The anti-Wynne wind that filled the sails of so many NDPs has blown away, and Arthur does not appear to have the personal brand of Hsu. It will be interesting to see how Ryan Boehme (PC) performs relative to Gary Bennett. My sense is that Bennett still has better name recognition, perhaps because Boehme’s acclamation in a busy 2018 municipal election left him without much attention.
10/06/21 1 David
65.95.248.19
With the disaster that was 2018 for the Liberals, they still managed to finish second in what was a three-way race in this riding.
Ted Hsu, the former MP for this riding is the Liberal's nominated candidate. Hsu was incredibly well liked during his time as MP and would have been easily re-elected in 2015 if he decided to run again.
His popularity alone should make the Liberals favourites to win here.
12/05/21 1 Chris N
24.36.32.209
The NDP won this riding in 2018 for the first time since 1990. This has historically been a Liberals stronghold, both provincially and federally. The Liberals nominated former Liberal MP Ted Hsu, who I anticipate will be a strong contender to win the riding back for the Liberals next year.



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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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