Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Kenora-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2021-11-04 01:14:00

Constituency Profile



Boucher-Chicago, Kelvin

Breiland, Larry

Formanek Gustafson, Joanne

Jonasson, Richard A.

Kiewning, Catherine

Leek, Anthony


Rickford, Greg

Greg Rickford

Population (2016):

Population (2011):53027

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

2,657 14.89%
5,266 29.51%
9,410 52.73%
513 2.87%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 17,845
      Component Riding(s)

Kenora-Rainy River
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Eric Melillo
Bob Nault **
Rudy Turtle
Kirsi Ralko
Michael Di Pasquale
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


01/06/2022 NJam101
Definitely Rickford. But if the PCs were heading towards a loss then I bet he wouldn't win here.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Prior to Rickford winning here in 2018 the area had been NDP provincially for a long time (It was the political home of former provincial NDP leader Howard Hampton). The area is Conservative federally as well. Rickford will keep the area PC.
17/05/2022 Poli-Nick-al
I'm not sure how others are calling this riding so early, I think it's very much still a tossup at this point.
The PCs definitely have the inside track here, both as a party and the incumbent as a "known quantity". I'd say they have at least 2:1 odds of winning. However, the NDP have a good opportunity to close the gap and take this seat back, if only because the Liberals are a bit of a mess this election (I know this personally). It took a long time to choose a candidate, the one they finally chose didn't pass vetting and is now running independently, and they're still struggling to catch up.
It'll take at least a week or two, in my opinion, to get a real feel for how this one will shake out. But again, I must admit the PC's do have the inside track in this one.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Working-class rural folks are prime targets for Ford Nation populism, and this formerly Liberal and NDP seat is a prime example of that. Easy PC hold.
21/04/22 A.S.
Whether one likes it or not, there's a Western Canada-esque racialized cloud over Conservative dominance in K-RR, i.e. if the trajectory is toward the Cons becoming the "white" party and the NDP (perhaps supplemented by the Libs) as the "First Nations" party, it's not necessarily a great thing--and even Fort Frances, long a last bulwark of big-tent "Howie Dipperism", is now showing signs of drifting rightward federally. (And scary to consider: even if reunited with Kiiwetinoong, the riding would have gone Tory in '18.) I mean, if Rickford's headed for 60% of the vote next time, that'd mean practically everything that isn't FN is going into monolithic Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke territory (and lest we forget, RNP was the only seat to go from Lib to Tory in '03, much as K-RR was the only seat to go from NDP to Tory in '18). Sure, Leo Bernier made that work in the 70s and 80s, but that's when the big-tent dynamics were less baldly "sorted" than now. So if the NDP aims to take this seriously now, it's do-or-die time--but at least Andrea cannot be so easily pigeonholed as an "affluent professional activist" type as Jagmeet; that is, in her leadership race, she was the Howie to Tabuns' Lankin. Except that (to fuel knocks about her being past her best-by date) said leadership race was so far back now...
04/04/22 Stevo
As the political realignment of the working class under the Conservative brand at both levels of government continues and even accelerates, I can see the PCs taking 60% of the vote here this time. The Liberals will not improve much beyond their 10% showing last election. As the two left-wing parties battle for the affections of the affluent professional activist constituency, the Conservatives are only too happy to solidify their dominance in seats like Kenora.
25/02/22 R.O.
Had been a long time ndp riding although only existed under these boundaries since 2018 when southern Kenora part of riding became its own riding. Greg Rickford had previously been mp for the same area but now at queens park. is a high profile mpp in cabinet so likely he?€™ll keep this riding.
14/08/21 EP
While Rickford may be relatively low profile for a senior minister in the downtown Queen's Park circuit, he is a major rainmaker for the north and certainly for his riding. As a conservative he can rely on big wins among the predominately white (and arguably racist votes) in the city, while he also have significant cache/goodwill built up in some of the Treaty 3 indigenous communities because of his past work (both as private citizen/lawyer and as federal/provincial minister). The fact that the federal conservative beat out Bob Nault, a Chretien era Indian Affairs minister, in 2019 also bolt well for Rickford. Easy hold, I would think.

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