Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-11-04 01:14:00

Constituency Profile



Boudreau, Jennifer

Chuipka, Brian

Coenraad, Melissa

Freel, Pat

Fullerton, Merrilee

Syed, Shahbaz

Merrilee Fullerton

Population (2016):

Population (2011):100846

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

14,340 33.36%
19,598 45.59%
6,000 13.96%
3,052 7.10%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 42,990
      Component Riding(s)

Carleton-Mississippi Mills
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karen McCrimmon **
Justina McCaffrey
Melissa Coenraad
Jennifer Purdy
Scott Miller

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Karen McCrimmon
Walter Pamic
John Hansen
Andrew West


27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Fulton's performance is amongst the worse within the Ford cabinet. If it was a swing riding I may have this riding switching but the area has been PC for a long time (Aside from former MPP Jack Maclaren's time with the Trillium patrty). Fulton will hold the riding.
24/05/2022 Kanata Carleton Voter
I have to respond to the individual who posted that vote splitting on the right would deliver this riding to the OLP. First of all: the only other right wing candidate running is some crank who doesnt live in the riding - somebody who has barely even campaigned. The OLP will come third in this riding, just like last time. The local provincial Liberal EDA is weak at best and their team is small and not mighty. The local Liberal MP who *might* be able give some support through her team is dismissive and absent - she cares only about her own fortunes. Itll be Fullerton with room to breath. Nobody knows who Shahbaz Syed is and come June 3 hell be another constituent living in a PC blue riding.
23/05/2022 Wildcat49xx
I see the liberals winning this from the vote splitting on the right. Plus federal liberals have the riding, and some boost from jenna sudds liberals and Karen mccrimmon liberals may just move Mr.Syed into 1st place. Keep in mind, the liberals are willing to fund the next phase of the lrt.
15/05/2022 Kanata-Carleton Voter
Fullerton - Dr Death who unapologetically presided over the deaths of thousands of seniors - doesnt deserve it, but shell win without breaking a sweat. Completely absent from the riding, has not done a thing of note, but this riding rewards mediocrity and incompetence. Have a great second term, Merrilee.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This'll be an interesting one to watch, but controversial incumbent Merilee Fullerton will likely hold on. If the Liberals win provincewide though, this could go.
17/04/22 A.S.
Whether through being taken to task for past Islamophobic tweets during her '18 campaign, or through her subsequent haughtily mixed cabinet performance through the deepest days of Covid, Fullerton's always been one of the more unlikeable reps of the FordCon caucus. And whatever the long-term history of the riding (or rather, of the territory which the riding is a part of), she *ought to be* vulnerable in the event of a broader repudiation of her party. Except that said repudiation doesn't appear to be in the cards for '22, at least to the degree that opponents might wish--and furthermore, '18's balance-tip from Lib to NDP really messed up the equilibrium. (Though if the NDP maintains the upper hand, 2-time federal contender Coenraad isn't a bad way to go about it. And there's a little-tapped "Kanata progressive" undercurrent going back to the days of Alex Munter. But still, it's hard to shake "Liberal or nothing" conventional wisdom re who's best poised to defeat the Cons.)
10/03/22 R.O.
Merrilee Fullerton was first elected here in 2018. Riding boundaries have changed somewhat as Kanata area grew but this area has been pc for some time provincially. New liberal candidate is Shahbaz Syed and ndp yet to select a candidate.
17/10/21 Political Denizen
She doesn?€™t deserve it but the Fullerton will win again. OLP have a shallow bench of candidates, the NDP is a non-entity and the incumbent MP who could help doesn?€™t care about anybody but herself so won?€™t be giving assistance or team members to the OLP effort.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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