Barrie-Innisfil

	Dean, Grace
	Hughes, Benjamin
	Khanjin, Andrea
	North, Bonnie
	Olthuis, John
	Reinio, Pekka
	Steele, Ashlyn
	Tucker, Jake

Incumbent:

		Andrea Khanjin
Population (2016):			109286
Population (2011):			101584
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		ANDREA KHANJIN
		22,121	49.97%
		PEKKA REINIO
		12,661	28.60%
		ANN HOGGARTH *
		5,543	12.52%
		BONNIE NORTH
		3,190	7.21%
		BRETT DORION
		396	0.89%
		JAKE TUCKER
		184	0.42%
		STACEY SURKOVA
		118	0.27%
		ALEXANDER RYZHYKH
		59	0.13%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		13,733	37.51%
		14,243	38.91%
		6,211	16.97%
		2,131	5.82%
	OTHERS	290	0.79%
	Total Transposed		36,608
Component Riding(s)
	Barrie (67.44% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	York-Simcoe (32.56% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		John Brassard **
		23,765	43.80%
		Lisa-Marie Wilson
		15,879	29.30%
		Pekka Reinio
		8,880	16.40%
		Bonnie North
		4,716	8.70%
		Stephanie Robinson
		1,013	1.90%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		John Brassard
		22,901	46.40%
		Colin Wilson
		18,308	37.10%
		Myrna Clark
		5,812	11.80%
		Bonnie North
		1,991	4.00%
		Gary Nail
		199	0.40%
		Jeff Sakula
		130	0.30%

	25/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Easy hold here for the PC's. The other Barrie riding will be 1 to watch though.
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Should be a reasonably safe PC hold. Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate, but Mayor Lehman running next door might also lift the party here. This is the type of the seat the Greens should be focus on building their support in and could finish a strong third.
	15/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The booby-prize sole riding in '18 where the Lib incumbent fell below the 15% deposit threshold (and its '95 Simcoe Centre predecessor was one of 2 that year where a *NDP* incumbent did likewise). Sure, things might shift generically leftward over the upcoming years; but the Barrie parts are pretty much filling out, and the real present-and-future growth is in the Innisfil part, which is really more of a piece with York-Simcoe, and *that's* currently in no danger of upset from generic leftward shift. And Reinio's one of those '18-style NDP shining lights giving it another go, which means we *could* see a rerun of '18's 2nd place for the party (particularly as it's the more "Lake Simcoe populistic" and less urban-Liberalish of Barrie's ridings--heck, the Libs did better with a non-incumbent in BSOM next door); but anything beyond that would be an extraordinary 1990-type circumstance.
	29/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
This riding in current boundaries has only existed during 1 provincial election although became a relatively safe cpc riding at federal level. As current mp John Brassard has held it for 3 elections now. The current mpp Andrea Khanjin was first elected in 2018 during her first attempt at running politically in the area. Pekka Reinio is back for the ndp and former green candidate Bonnie North also running again. Its unclear who the liberals will run.
	09/09/21	Jacob 135.23.126.235
The current composition of this riding leans it toward the PCs. Federally this is a decently Conservative riding and BSOM tends to be more likely to go Liberal before the Barrie-Innisfil does. I expect the Liberals to make up much of their 2018 losses but I don't think this riding is going Liberal again at the next election given current trends. Even the 2014 transposition shows this riding leaned more conservative than Liberal. Others have commented in the federal predictions that the people moving to Barrie may shift it leftward in 5-10 years, and I agree, I just don't think this election will be the sign that it moves. It's early though so anything could change in the next year, this is just based off how things are/have been.