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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:55
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bennink , Fred

Shaw, Sandy


Incumbent:
Sandy Shaw

Population (2016):

113024
Population (2011):109535


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

SANDY SHAW
23,92143.19%
BEN LEVITT
17,18931.03%
TED MCMEEKIN *
10,96019.79%
PETER ORMOND
2,3024.16%
STEPHANIE DAVIES
3990.72%
NICHOLAS DUSHKO
3720.67%
JIM ENOS
2470.45%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,760 43.21%
12,383 25.78%
11,941 24.86%
2,368 4.93%
OTHERS 588 1.22%
Total Transposed 48,040
      Component Riding(s)

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
(66.22% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton Centre
(22.28% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton Mountain
(11.50% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Filomena Tassi **
30,21446.60%
Bert Laranjo
17,34026.70%
Yousaf Malik
11,52717.80%
Victoria Galea
4,7707.30%
Daniel Ricottone
8941.40%
Spencer Rocchi
1560.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Filomena Tassi
29,69447.70%
Vincent Samuel
19,82131.80%
Alex Johnstone
10,13116.30%
Peter Ormond
2,6334.20%


 

06/08/2021 Joseph P
67.69.69.168
Sandy Shaw is an interesting incumbent. Like a lot of rookie NDP MPPs she really wasn't supposed to win in 2018. Her team has put a lot of effort into billboard and bus stop ads over the last 3 years trying to raise her local profile and name awareness. Though I'm not sure if it will be enough to stop the tide of the general OLP comeback in the polls. PC's could also run up the middle in this riding, the vote taking place outside of McMaster season means some left leaning student renters who might normally choose to vote in this riding won't be here. At this point in time I can see any of the big 3 parties winning here. Really just need to see more polling and trends to come up with a confident guess. If I had to guess right now I would probably say Liberal just because this riding feels like a natural Liberal seat to me based on federal results and the previous 18 year reign of Ted McMeekin.
26/06/21 0 Hammer
142.120.104.154
This will be interesting. I lived in Dundas for over 20 years, before moving to downtown Hamilton. In those years, Dundas generally went with the idea they couldn't vote NDP because the other parts of riding (at the time Flamborough, Ancaster, etc) wouldn't so they stuck with the Liberals. With an NDP incumbent and more Hamilton voters, its become far more NDP friendly. The Conservative ceiling is 30% and thus it will be between the Liberals and NDP; incumbency and more Hamilton voters give the edge to the NDP.
04/06/21 1 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This will be an exciting race. I wasn't convinced the NDP would pick this up in 2018, as I felt Ancaster and Dundas were too ?toney? for the NDP. However, the province-wide collapse of the Liberal Party and a messy PC nomination contest that made provincial headlines worked in the NDP's favour. Incumbent Sandy Shaw is a solid constituency MPP and has a high profile role in her caucus as the finance critic. However, I anticipate that both the Liberals and PCs see this as the most likely pick up in Hamilton in 2022. Will be a race to watch.



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