Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:13:00

Constituency Profile



Butt, Zaigham

Diluca, Domenic

Farr, Jason

Lumsden, Neil

Miller, Paul

Rajewski, Cameron

Raulino, Jeffery

Wylie, Cassie

Paul Miller

Population (2016):

Population (2011):107786

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

11,741 29.86%
7,122 18.11%
18,037 45.87%
1,550 3.94%
OTHERS 869 2.21%
Total Transposed 39,318
      Component Riding(s)

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bob Bratina **
Nick Milanovic
Nikki Kaur
Peter Ormond
Charles Crocker

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bob Bratina
Wayne Marston **
Diane Bubanko
Erin Davis
Bob Mann
Wendell Fields


31/05/2022 Dr Bear
@Seasaw: Your comments are fair and well reasoned, however Id like to emphasize that the lack of campaigning by the PCs go beyond signs and literature. The candidates are skipping local debates (the local debate is how I made up my mind in the recent federal election, so yes they do matter), advertising in the media is only the province-wide adverts (again, nothing local). I have seen/heard more from the fringe parties than from the PCs. And I am comparing the current campaign to recent federal/provincial campaigns, where the PCs made an obvious attempt to sway voters.
Now regarding the PC candidate, yes he has a recognizable name from his time in the CFL. But this isnt the first time a Conservative party has tried to run a former footballer in Hamilton. Heck, I think every recent-ish election-prediction-go-round one of the Hamilton area conservatives played football. How many of them have won? None of them. The ground just isnt fertile for conservatives in Hamilton, and without it, a big name means very little.
In regard to this riding being good for the PCs in the Mike Harris years, I would caution against making such a comparison. In the 12 years I have lived in this city (either part time or full time) the city has changed dramatically. The population demographic is closer to Toronto, than what it was 20+ years ago. Still, suburbs are suburbs, and Ford and the PCs have done well there. Yet, this riding is not Stoney Creek. It is Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. That first name is not anything PC friendly (during Harris years or now). According to Wikipedia, Hamilton East comprises about 49% of seat and is definitely left of centre. You would need most of Stoney Creek going PC (which I dont see it doing now) to easily push the seat blue. As I said earlier, a decent vote split on the left, could allow the PCs to slide through, but Im not betting the farm on it.
27/05/2022 seasaw
@Dr Bear, Youve mentioned the lack of PC signs and brochures. It reminded me of my younger days, just out of school working in Oakville and living in Burlington, at the time of the95 election. I didnt get any literature from Cam Jackson, the PC MPP, and driving through Burlington, I saw a lot of Liberal signs compared to very few PC signs, I wasnt a political junkie back then and I was convinced that the Liberal candidate, Ray Rivers was going to take the riding. On election eve, I was surprised that the results were 71-17 in favour of Jackson. Now not to take anything away anything from Lumsden, but hes no Cam Jackson, in the sense that Jackson was a very experienced campaigner. Now for this riding, remember, the PCs did win a good chunk of it in the Harris years, the Liberals won it next and the NDP has held it since 2007. We dont know if this was an NDP riding or a Miller riding, if it was the latter, then he may be able to win, like Peter North as an Independent, if not, the Liberals and the NDP have strong machines here, and the PCs have a strong candidate and poll numbers. Hard to call
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Another riding that will be fun to watch on June 2. Given the NDP history in Hamilton I'd put this in the NDP column but Paul Miller, the prior NDP MPP, in this riding is running as an independent. That will take votes away from the NDP. Given the PC's look on track to win government I think this riding will go PC with former CFLer Neil Lumsden.
26/05/2022 Eric
I see where folks here think this could fall to the PCs ... with Paul Miller's candidacy ... it could, the first time since this entire riding was represented by the PCs since the 1951 election (Stoney Creek portion more recently) ... (federally last time was 1958 for Hamilton East) - the presence of the New Blue and Ontario Party on the ballot leads me to think that the PC candidate can not grow their support, which may end up in the mid-20% range - and however strong a showing Miller has, he might draw from more than just the NDP ... so any of the L, NDP, PC or Miller could theoretically take the riding, but mathematically, and historically, the NDP are probably very slight favorites, even if Miller takes away a fair amount of support. They could lose up to around 22-23 points from 2018 and still win, no other party could sustain such a loss and end up taking the riding.
25/05/2022 Finn
The PCs are in good position to win this riding, because of the Independent running in this riding. Veteran Paul Miller, formerly NDP, is running now as an independent. He is expected to receive a higher amount of the vote than a typical independent. For that reason, I believe the left vote will be split, allowing the PCs to win with only around 30 percent of the vote.
25/05/2022 ME
Changing my prediction...Lumsden will win IMHO due to his honesty ...a big blow to the NDP.
24/05/2022 seasaw
This one will probably be a four way dog fight. Miller, an Independent this time has an amazing record as an MPP, the Liberals have a good candidate and a good machine in the riding, the NDP, they've held this seat for 15 years and won't go down without a fight, the PC's have a great candidate and have an okay record as a governing party. Who's going to win? One of them, but in a situation like this, it's hard to predict who.
24/05/2022 Dr Bear
The folly with some of my predictions from the recent federal election, was that I did not take into account how much the federal NDP was out of touch with the blue collar/working class crowd. As as a result, I overestimated how well the federal NDP would do. What we saw was the Liberals winning in seats which should safely be in NDP hands, including this one. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and we can now see parallels to the federal campaign. We have a city councillor running for the Liberals. We have a low-ish ceiling for the conservatives. And now we have a provincial NDP who are tired of being official opposition and have deciding to follow the winning strategy of their federal cousins (this last statement is sarcasm, for those of you who missed it). Add in the well established incumbent running as an independent (wholl speak to the working class) and I cant see the NDP holding this seat. This is also part of the reason why I dont see the PCs picking it up either; the blue collar support they will gain elsewhere will not necessarily gravitate towards them Burt more likely to Miller. The other part is that the PCs are not campaigning particularly hard in Hamilton. They are the only party who hasnt sent me any campaign literature and their lawn signs are absent.
Bottom line: while I would not be floored if the PCs win this seat by some massive vote split, I think the liberals have the best bet here with a replay of the strategy from the federal campaign.
23/05/2022 jeff316
The fact that the NDP was willing to flush one its most significant ridings down the electoral toilet just to get rid of Miller shows how dire the situation was. And that Jason Farr pulled a Bob Bratina (read: used the NDP machine to get elected municipally, only to ditch it to run Liberal provincially) is more salt in the wound. The NDP will do all it can to prevent Farr from winning (although if I were the NDP, given his meh council I'd let Farr squeak a win and show his colours as a politician and likely lose in the next election.) The conditions are perfect for a PC win. 1. A riding where the NDP and Liberals will crack 20%. 2. An independent candidate that will pull votes from both those parties. 3. The loosening of the suburban Italian community from their former Liberal voting patterns. 4. An NDP that missed their opportunity the last time. 5. A PC government that's been effectively refunding taxpayers with their own money. PC win.
21/05/2022 ME
Lumsden revealed PC candidates have been told to skip open debates or forums...He is a honest Conservative..a 4-5 point gap between Butt and Lumsden and he is not closing and Hamilton East is a Likely win for the NDP
18/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I don't see how the NDP rock bottom support is 35%, when they fell to 25% last federal election, even without a splinter in the party? This would indicate there is a lot further they can fall, especially if they lose their old steel worker base. Paul Miller is running a very strong sign game, and he really only needs about 30-35% to win, which is not impossible, especially since the "working class" types who would normally swing to the PCs will support Miller instead. While very difficult to predict, I think Paul Miller will clinch this one.
09/05/2022 ME
Rock bottom support for the NDP would be about 35/36% ..The PC are now at 30 and not gaining...This riding will be a NDP hold
02/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroehim
A "safe" NDP seat in Hamilton with a poor candidate? I feel I've heard this story before. Especially with Miller running, I think there is a very good chance it does not go NDP. Now whether that would be PC or Liberals remains to be seen. Contrary to Toronto, many of the Hamilton Liberals are quite "conservative", as seen through Bratina and Sgro. This seat will likely go how the campaign goes, either PC or Liberals, which I assume will be PC at the moment, but could change.
01/05/2022 Hammer
I was wrong. Miller still had some issues. As an old school labour supporter he has my sympathy but sometimes you need to know when to retire. As for not knowing what was on his social media sites, you need to take responsibility and not blame staff. As a a Ward 2 resident, Jason Farr the Liberal candidate was my city councilor and I wasn't impressed. Given Miller insists on running again, this will likely split the vote 4 ways. The odds favor the Liberals here.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This one might get ugly. Incumbent MPP Paul Miller was ejected from the NDP caucus and is running a feisty campaign to hold his seat as an independent. Liberals picked a good candidate in city councillor Jason Farr. Former pro-footballer Neil Lumsden of the PCs might be his closest competition, but I think Farr will win by a safe margin, with the other three (including the new NDP candidate) fighting it out for second and third.
21/04/22 ME
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek’s provincial NDP riding association has officially cut ties with incumbent MPP Paul Miller after it selected Zaigham Butt as its new candidate for the provincial election June 2.
Butt, a Stoney Creek resident and the former volunteer director of the Pakistan Business Association, who received the Order of Hamilton for 2021, was acclaimed as the NDP candidate April 19.
“I’m so excited to begin our campaign and earn your vote,? said Butt on Twitter.
In a statement, Butt, an accountant for the Canadian Revenue Agency, said “I will make sure we get the services we deserve here in Hamilton.?
He said costs are rising and “young people are having a hard time affording their first home.? Butt said the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have underfunded long-term-care homes, and there are more people on lists waiting to get in.
Butt has replaced Miller as the party’s candidate after Miller was removed by the NDP and leader Andrea Horwath because of what was called “clearly unacceptable? information that was discovered on social media that was uncovered during the candidate vetting process.
Miller has denounced the party’s evidence, calling it “fabricated and false.?
At the same, the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial Liberal riding association held a virtual nomination to officially acclaim Ward 2 Coun. Jason Farr as its provincial candidate.
20/04/22 ME
The Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Ontario NDP have a nomination date: Tuesday, April 19. They also have at least one nomination candidate: Zaigham Butt.
19/04/22 R.O.
The liberals have announced that Hamilton city councillor Jason Farr will be there candidate here. it also appears that Zaigham Butt will be the ndp candidate . as I mentioned before its clear the liberals strategy this year in unheld ridings that typically don’t support them is to find personally likeable often municipal figures to run for them. I’ve read the individual candidate only makes a small % difference to the actual numbers as many people vote for party leaders or based on actual issues. And Ontario provincial elections tend to see large swings a certain way and tough to get elected if your going against the tide in many ridings. but an odd race here as current mpp running as an independent so it could turn into a 3 or 4 way race
The NDP nomination is on April 19th with a Muslim candidate to replace Miller ..
14/04/22 A.S.
Beyond the Paul Miller circumstance, there've been other alarm bells for the NDP--above all, unexpectedly falling behind the Cons for 3rd federally in '21, in an open-seat race many thought was theirs for the taking--but this *is* Andrea country, so it's hard to believe they'd "inevitably" fumble it provincially the way they fumbled both this and the Mountain federally. And I agree that the "anti-NDP" nature of Miller's campaign *could* pilfer more from the opposing forces than from the party he was expelled from--or at least, we might be facing a "poor person's Jane Philpott" circumstance where the PCs aren't the automatic beneficiaries from vote-splitting they think they are. (And let's be clear here: relative to '18, it'd be Con votes Miller would draw from because the Wynne Libs were already reduced to skeleton support.)
Miller based on his FB page will run an anti-NDP campaign...which may IMHO attract more Con and Liberal votes
23/03/22 seasaw
This one just got a lot more interesting and a lot harder to predict. Paul Miller is now running as an Independent, he will most certainly take a lot of votes away from the NDP, Neil Lumsden, the PC candidate is also personally popular, the Liberals and the NDP don't have a candidate yet, this will probably end in a four way photo finish.
23/03/22 The Lobster
So this prediction (PC instead of TCTC) is probably premature but I do think it's now leaning PC. This is the kind of seat the NDP are leaving behind to appeal to a new, highly culturally progressive urban base. Throw in a strong PC candidate, a decent LPO campaign, and Miller himself running as an Independent, and I think PCs will finally get their long-awaited Hamilton breakthrough, albeit likely with only ~30% of the vote.
This prediction is admittedly dependent on LPO having a strong campaign province-wide.
20/03/22 R.O.
In an odd move the ndp have removed long time mpp Paul Miller from caucus and he isnt allowed to run for them again. He was first elected here in 2007 and re elected in every election since. Unclear who the new ndp candidate will be , liberals also yet to nominate here. Neil Lumsden is the new pc candidate . has been ndp provincially for some time despite being liberal federally.
19/03/22 seasaw
One may look and think What? TCTC in this riding? As things stand now, yes. Though this riding has been an NDP stronghold, with Paul Miller gone, this riding has now moved to TCTC column. As things stand now, Miller may not choose to run, or run as an independent, or run as a Green, Liberal or PC candidate. If he runs again, it?€™ll be a close race, if he doesn?€™t, while NDP will see a drop in support, they?€™ll still have a good shot of taking this
Paul Miller has been booted out of caucus by the leader
26/02/22 Max Eccles
This should be leaning NDP, but there have been doubts around whether or not NDP incumbent Paul Miller will be nominated again by his party.
25/01/22 Finn
Hamilton has been a traditional NDP stronghold for a while, and don't expect it to change this election. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek has been a very NDP friendly place for a while, with consistent provincial wins and typically a strong showing federally. The NDP will probably gather support in Hamilton in particular, as their leader, Andrea Horwath, has her seat in Hamilton Centre. Don't expect this riding to change.
26/06/21 Hammer
Like most Hamilton ridings, the Conservative ceiling is 25 to 30% leaving it between a Liberal-NDP vote. And like other Hamilton ridings, incumbency and candidate will make the difference. Unless the Liberals recruit a local name I can't see the NDP losing. Miller seems to have shook off office personnel issues of the past so a year from the ballot box, it seems reasonable to see this as an NDP seat.

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