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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Hamilton Centre


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bokhari, Sarah

Cheriyan, Nigel

Chroust, John

Crawley, Sandy

Dimakis, Ekaterini

Horwath, Andrea

Peace, Brad

Yan, Nathalie Xian Yi


Incumbent:
Andrea Horwath

Population (2016):

100103
Population (2011):101932


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

ANDREA HORWATH *
23,86665.25%
DIONNE DUNCAN
5,73015.67%
DEIRDRE PIKE
3,98210.89%
JASON LOPEZ
2,1025.75%
TONY LEMMA
3200.87%
ROBERT YOUNG
2850.78%
MARIA ANASTASIOU
1560.43%
MARY ELLEN CAMPBELL
1340.37%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

6,532 21.93%
3,773 12.67%
16,248 54.56%
2,741 9.20%
OTHERS 489 1.64%
Total Transposed 29,782
      Component Riding(s)

Hamilton Centre
(90.25% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
(9.75% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Matthew Green
20,36846.20%
Jasper Kujavsky
12,65128.70%
Monica Ciriello
6,34114.40%
Jason Lopez
3,3707.60%
Melina Mamone
8331.90%
Gary Duyzer
1820.40%
Tony Lemma
1580.40%
Edward Graydon
1340.30%
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
850.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

David Christopherson **
18,71945.60%
Anne Tennier
13,71833.40%
Yonatan Rozenszajn
6,01814.60%
Ute Schmid-Jones
1,7784.30%
Michael James Baldasaro
3480.80%
Rob Young
3160.80%
Maria Anastasiou
1860.50%


 

27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
I think this will be Horvath's last hurrah as NDP leader and could very well be as MPP. That said this area has long been NDP friendly and she'll have no problem winning here on June 2.
20/05/2022 Dr Bear
216.154.42.212
Is there even an election going on? This is my current riding and there are almost no lawn signs what so ever. There has been little in the way of campaign literature, and engagement is nil. Compared to previous/recent elections, one would guess we are midterm, rather than two weeks away from voting. Regardless, Andrea will win her seat safely, albeit turnout will be low.
01/05/2022 Hammer
142.116.165.176
Obviously Horwath will win and yes its her last kick at the can, but things won't change here. Bokhari can work as hard as she wants (and I haven't noticed her yet) , Hamilton Centre won't elect a conservative. We have enough quality NDP candidates to annoy the rest of the province for a few more years.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
An easy hold for NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Whether she holds on to her leadership after the election is another question.
14/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
As much as Premier Gorgeous Gorillawitz loves to gaslight the Leader of the Official Opposition, she's bombproof. But so's the seat--at least relative to the Tories, i.e. re Bokhari, even if Hamilton's blue-collar workers are in the long-term amenable to shifting right, there simply isn't enough of that element in Hamilton *Centre*. In the end, it's more of an "inner-city" riding than a "blue-collar" riding--that is, if the NDP's ever to be upset by anyone, it's the Libs, not the Cons--and never mind Andrea; Matthew Green federally is what cements the picture for the NDP long-term. So if Bokhari's "working hard", it's more likely as practice for a future run in a more amenable riding (which could even be either of the other Hamilton ridings). Oh, and she's run in the past, for the federal Cons in London North Centre in '19.
08/04/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
Like my previous comment, this is a very easy one to predict. I expect Horwath to get at least 60% of the vote. The PC candidate, Sara Bokhari however, is working very hard, especially for a person who has zero chance of winning, and I think I know why. Unless Horwath becomes premier, or be in a position to become one ie leader of opposition in a minority or third party leader in a minority, then, it’s almost certain that she will be done, she’ll be offered a job by Ford, Trudeau or another premier, she’ll resign her seat and go, and that’s why Bokhari is working hard, because without Horwath, she might have a chance, because Ford’s brand of conservatism appeals to many blue collar voters who usually vote NDP. But for this time, it’s an easy Horwath hold
26/03/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
Even if the NDP were to totally implode, this is one riding that they will win. NDP has always been strong in downtown Hamilton, that coupled with Andrea?€™s personal popularity, makes this easy to predict.
10/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Andrea Horwath has held this riding for a number of years , and downtown Hamilton mostly ndp territory so likely she holds it as she?€™s increased her profile over the years being ndp leader.
26/06/21 Hammer
142.120.104.154
Safer than Ford's riding. For the NDP, this is one of the safest seats in the country let alone the province.
12/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Andrea Horwath's riding will be safe in 2022. Easy win for the NDP.



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