Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

	Balfour, Gene
	Doyle, Barbara
	Kelly, Kerstin
	Mcbey, Don
	Prentice, Ben
	Regina, Tom
	Scott, Laurie

Incumbent:

		Laurie Scott
Population (2016):			113956
Population (2011):			110217
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		LAURIE SCOTT *
		32,406	56.71%
		ZAC MILLER
		15,142	26.50%
		BROOKLYNNE CRAMP-WALDINSPERGER
		5,655	9.90%
		LYNN THERIEN
		2,551	4.46%
		THOMAS RHYNO
		622	1.09%
		GENE BALFOUR
		455	0.80%
		CHUCK MACMILLAN
		312	0.55%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		16,872	35.27%
		19,278	40.30%
		9,635	20.14%
		2,048	4.28%
	OTHERS		!Syntax Error, *%
	Total Transposed		47,832
Component Riding(s)
	Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Jamie Schmale **
		32,257	49.10%
		Judi Forbes
		17,067	26.00%
		Barbara Doyle
		9,676	14.70%
		Elizabeth Fraser
		5,515	8.40%
		Gene Balfour
		1,245	1.90%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Jamie Schmale
		27,718	44.80%
		David Marquis
		19,634	31.80%
		Mike Perry
		12,012	19.40%
		Bill MacCallum
		2,470	4.00%

	27/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
Aside for a couple yrs. in the Mcguinty era this has been a PC seat. Laurie Scott has been the MPP here since 2011 and before that 2003-2009, she will hold on here in 2022.
	18/05/2022	An Observer 173.206.13.72
This is my riding and it's a slam dunk for Laurie Scott and the Conservatives. The NDP are at least running a respectable candidate in Barbara Doyle, while the Liberals are going with a largely unknown candidate. The only thing really interesting here is that, in a riding that had a fairly large component of people upset with pandemic restrictions (the People's Party got 7% of the vote here in the federal election last year), is whether enough support might go to the New Blue and Ontario Party candidates to push Scott to a bit under 50%. But she's going to win.
	16/05/2022	HKLB Nerd 216.221.78.238
This will be a surprise if Laurie Scott doesn't win this riding. She has been not only actively campaigning in HKLB, but also in next door Ptbo-Kawartha where Dave Smith has a greater uphill battle. That being said, as a local, I am rather surprised at the sheer lack of Scott signs on lawns (roadside is another issue altogether). The Ontario Party is spending hard in this riding and have really made it a target. They have a campaign office downtown Lindsay, billboards, more signs than most parties (including PCs), and have been working hard to get their name out in the community. And the tricky thing with the Ontario Party signs being Dark Blue, they look an awful lot like the normal royal blue signs of the PC Party, and this area is not batting an eye. Prediction: 1. Scott/PC 2. Doyle/NDP 3. Kelly/OP 4. Tossup Lib/Green
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
PC Incumbent Laurie Scott remains popular and will easily retain this reasonably safe Tory seat.
	17/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The best way to defeat the Tories now would be to have Laurie Scott resign on behalf of a parachuted John Tory all over again. The question now, compared to 2009, would be who'd be better poised for the upset, the Libs or the NDP. (And in retrospect, Tory's '09 giant killer Rick Johnson was the last gasp of a certain Liberal populism that wasn't just by proxy. Maybe if the Grits can reconnect with something *there*, they can go places.)
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Laurie Scott has been mpp for the riding since 2003 minus a brief period in 2009 when John Tory ran and lost here. she is a well known mpp by now in this area and likely to hold the riding . new ndp candidate is Barbara Doyle and unsure who liberal is.
	20/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Laurie Scott and the PCs won this riding by a very large margin in 2018. I expect that they win again in 2022.