Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Burnett, Juanita

Devereaux, Raechelle

Lomker, Will

Mcsherry, Peter

Parr, James

Schreiner, Mike

Taylor, Paul

Mike Schreiner

Population (2016):

Population (2011):121688

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,014 41.52%
11,048 20.84%
9,385 17.70%
10,230 19.29%
OTHERS 348 0.66%
Total Transposed 53,025
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Lloyd Longfield **
Steve Dyck
Ashish Sachan
Aisha Jahangir
Mark Paralovos
Gordon Truscott
Juanita Burnett
Michael Wassilyn
Kornelis Klevering

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Lloyd Longfield
Gloria Kovach
Andrew Seagram
Gord Miller
Alexander Fekri
Kornelis Klevering
Tristan Dineen


31/05/2022 Gabriel
Mike in a landslide. He is very popular here in Guelph & did an excellent job in the TV debate. The only questions are...will he get over 50% and will he have another GPO member at Queen's Park? I voted Green again this year and I am happy to say that Mike's my guy!
29/05/2022 dtcaslick
Schreiner will win re-election without too much trouble.
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Guelph was a riding that saw representation from the 3 big parties in the 90's. It had been Liberal since 2003 when the Greens won here in 2018. In 2022 the Greens should hold on here by a comfortable marigin.
21/05/2022 seasaw
Schriner was already in the driver’s seat, his performance in the debates all but insured his re-election chances, and for those who watched the debates, he even got an endorsement from Doug Ford. Ford didn’t really endorse him per say, but he did say things like “Mike and I did some great work together” and “I really respect the hard work he does for his constituents”, he will be re-elected, but as a party of one, there’s only so much he can do
15/05/2022 prog15
Considering the effective sponsored party nature of the Greens as Tweedledums of the Liberals, there is little incentive for the many progressives in Guelph to switch the vote and, in fact many past NDP and Liberals may come to Schreiner aid and thus keep in Queen's Park the most repressive electable political force of today, on issues from cultural destruction of children to well, Green oppression by regulation. Not being a part of any progressivist government and not having accountability this way plus the low-profile nature of the opponents may also help.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Mike Schreiner is well-spoken and perhaps the best-regarded leader at Queen's Park. He'll easily retain his seat by an even larger margin. The real question is if he'll have caucus mates.
20/04/22 A.S.
Regardless of whether the respective PC and Lib leadership is more likeable now than in '18, you have to remember that recovering-from-past-deficits a la 1995 and 2003 doesn't compute in quite the same way when you're facing the novelty of a big-tent not-left-not-right-but-forward type of Green leader like Schreiner--and I doubt that the Annamie Paul debacle will negatively rub off on him any more than it rubbed off on Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Or if his margin is reduced: given that his nearest '18 opposition was a virtual PC-NDP tie more than halfway back, that shouldn't be *too* hard to tokenly do, and only as statistical noise. And "great candidacies" on his opponents' part could just as well be as prep for future runs at other levels of gov't, or to replace Schreiner himself eventually. But for now, he's been competent and not beset by scandal or incompetence or anything that'd trigger electoral second thoughts: "we shouldn't have tried this Green stuff, you know", etc. It'll still most likely be a party-of-one, though.
08/04/22 seasaw
Thanks for reading my prediction from 2018, and remember those predictions were like all my others based on facts. For the previous 8 elections, the riding had elected a member from the winning party, they hadn’t voted an opposition member, let alone a fringe party. Also, the 2 major party candidates, had very deep roots in the riding, whereas Mr Schreiner neither had any roots nor did he live in the riding, all that and given the fact that no Green had ever cracked 20% were the reasons, so not too many people gave Green a chance. This time though, things are much different, Schreiner is a very personable man, not only that, he’s worked very hard on behalf of the constituents. And I’m not saying he’s not going to win, he might win by a larger margin than the last time like you’ve suggested, but then again, he might not. I doubt NDP will get as many votes as last time, how many of those votes will go to the Liberals and how many to Green? Are all those people who voted Green the last time because of Ford and Wynne going on vote Green again or will they vote Liberal or PC this time? We know that Schreiner has a good record and a great team of volunteers, so he’s going on be tough to beat. Tough but I impossible.
07/04/22 Kyle Hutton
No offense to you seasaw, but I saw your previous predictions in 2018 - "Greens top out at 20%; Greens can dream all they want; lucky to get their deposits back" - and also funnily enough when you were sure Schreiner wouldn't win, "whoever wins here [in 2018] will win next election as well," then radio silence as it became clear what was happening.
Sorry if I don't weigh your perspective very heavily here. I've been out in Guelph, I know folks from Guelph - Schreiner is well-positioned to be reelected here, maybe even with an increased margin. You've got an uphill battle to change that bud.
12/03/22 seasaw
This is my home riding and while I do agree with the previous poster that the Greens have the edge in this riding because they're the best organized, I believe it is a bit premature to make a Green prediction here. The previous poster says it's not realistic to assume that one party can overcome a 20 point deficit,I say,really? Remember, Mike overcame a 22 point deficit the last time, Liberals overcame a 21 point deficit in 2003 and the PC's overcame a 17 point deficit in 1995, so it's not impossible not is it unrealistic. This time around, Mike is also facing two great candidates on the Liberal and PC side, just like he did the last time, difference is that this time around, those candidates are better organized than the last time. So, while this could be a relatively easy Green victory, it can also be a very tight 3-4 way race.
08/03/22 AD
My riding. Likely green re-election, with a lot working in Mike's favour this time around. Locally popular and distinctly not one of the mainstream parties, people appreciate how Mike talks about issues that matter like housing and stuff. Seems even more likely now that the other candidates have all lined up.
Perhaps the better way of thinking of it is the conservatives are somehow going to have to overcome a twenty point gap and I just don't think that's realistic.
07/03/22 R.O.
Likely green leader Mike Schreiner holds this riding. None of the candidates running against him are high profile. Combined with fact he?˘â‚¬â„˘s increased his profile since 2018 at queens park and likely to get more during campaign as he?˘â‚¬â„˘ll be part of the leaders debates.
22/09/21 seasaw
@Chris N. No Guelph did not embrace the Green Party leader in any way. Last time, the Green leader won a convincing victory because everything went right for them. He brought people from all over Canada and the United States to help him, and he was very f
04/06/21 Chris N
Guelph has really embraced Green leader and incumbent MPP Mike Schreiner. Interestingly, in 2018 the GPC's provincial % of popular vote actually went down compared to 2014. Regardless, the party put significant resources into Guelph, including encouraging supporters from across the GTA to make day trips to Guelph to volunteer for Schreiner's campaign. I expect Schreiner to hold his seat in 2022.

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