Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Aubry, St?©phane

Brassard, Victor

Eglin, Alicia

Riden, Thaila

Sarrazin, St?©phane

Simard, Amanda

Amanda Simard

Population (2016):

Population (2011):106240

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,457 49.68%
14,724 32.57%
5,653 12.51%
1,453 3.21%
OTHERS 918 2.03%
Total Transposed 45,206
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Francis Drouin **
Pierre Lemieux
Konstantine Malakos
Marthe LĂ©pine
Jean-Jacques Desgranges
Darcy Neal Donnelly
Daniel John Fey
Marc-Antoine Gagnier

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Francis Drouin
Pierre Lemieux **
Normand Laurin
Genevieve Malouin-Diraddo
Jean-Serge Brisson


26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This seat went PC with Amanda Simard in 2018, she is now a Liberal. I think her floor crossing will have no effect here on the result on June 2 and she'll keep the riding and the Liberals win this traditional Liberal area.
25/05/2022 R.O.
True this has historically been a liberal riding as it’s a largely francophone riding that borders Quebec . but it was really close in 2011 and that was an election when the liberals and pc’s close in popular vote. There is polls saying the pc’s have a large lead over the liberals. Del Duca also made a campaign stop in the riding to visit storm damage which seemed odd as everyone though this was a likely liberal riding so perhaps its closer. Amanda Simard is the incumbent and that is an advantage here so pc candidate Stephane Sarrazin is facing a tough challenge. There was also a poll that said Ford more popular among francophone voters yet pc’s and liberals tied in voting intentions. https://www.timminspress.com/news/ontario-election/shock-poll-shows-ford-more-popular-than-del-duca-among-ontarios-francophone-voters/wcm/13cb74ab-27e2-4331-b178-2399e437ebe3
19/05/2022 Finn
@not this riding has been PC more often than not? Since this riding's creation, it has only gone PC once, and it was last election. Even so, this riding only went PC by 9 and a half points last time. This is going to be an easy Liberal win, and it is even
17/05/2022 Not
So, Simard won one election, with Doug Ford as her leader. Sure she disagreed with him and flipped. That shouldn’t confer thousands of votes for her, especially in a year when Ford is cruising to victory. Is Del Duca an asset for her? This has been a Tory riding more often than not for decades.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
PC-to-Liberal floor-crosser Amanda Simard remains popular with her Francophone constituents, and will hold on here with the Liberals.
17/04/22 A.S.
Of course, the *reason* for her party jump is part of why it's so, but Simard couldn't have chosen a better riding to jump to the Liberals in--one where the party floor is 30% even in the federal '11 and provincial '18 incumbentless worst of times. Though her win for the PCs wasn't as much of a "surprise upset" as it may seem--they came close to winning it as an open seat in '11, and later socon federal leadership contender Pierre Lemieux held it federally over the Harper years. Even with the Franco element accounted for, it remains rural Ontario, and even the Francos are either containable or swayable--though the local-champion circumstance behind Simard's party jump grants her a certain added ballast beyond the generic. ("Generic" was more like her Lib predecessor Grant Crack, which is why he barely won in '11.)
14/03/22 R.O.
Amanda Simard was first elected here in 2018 is a surprise upset although the riding had no incumbent that year, originally a pc mpp but became independent and now a liberal. this area has a long liberal history so being a pc/liberal switcher perhaps not as much of an issue here compared to other more blue ridings. new pc candidate is Stephane Sarrazin and unclear who the ndp candidate is.
09/03/22 Finn
Liberal incumbent Amanda Simard made quite the profile for herself when she crossed the floor to the Liberals after leaving the Ford government over French language education disputes. This riding may have already gone red, as it is traditional Liberal territory, but with a candidate as strong as Simard, who is fluently bilingual, who fought for francophone education for one of the most francophone ridings in the province, the Liberals should win this comfortably.
While political analysis of Franco-Ontarians tends to focus on Northern Ontario, Glengarry?Prescott?Russell is perhaps the most francophone riding in Canada outside Quebec, outstripping even Vanier.
It was, therefore, not at all surprising to see MPP Amanda Simard walk out of the Tory caucus when, shortly after the 2018 election, the Ford government attempted to quietly drop several commitments they had made to the province's francophones.
Simard subsequently decided to caucus with the Liberals, and is well-positioned to turn the riding red in the next election. Remember, the Liberals only lost by 9% in 2018, and had held the seat since 1981: we should expect Simard to run on everything she hated about the Ford government, expect her to do so in both official languages -- and expect her to win.

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