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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Flamborough-Glanbrook


Prediction Changed
2022-04-21 13:10:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Cillis, Allison

Juchniewicz, Walt

Mahood, Nikita

Portak, Mario

Simoes, Paul

Skelly, Donna

Willems, Melisse


Incumbent:
Donna Skelly

Population (2016):

111065
Population (2011):97081


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

DONNA SKELLY
22,45443.53%
MELISSA MCGLASHAN
17,63034.17%
JUDI PARTRIDGE
7,96715.44%
JANET ERRYGERS
2,3074.47%
GLENN LANGTON
5411.05%
RUDY MILLER
4510.87%
ROMAN SARACHMAN
2380.46%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,372 35.58%
15,325 35.47%
9,791 22.66%
1,955 4.53%
OTHERS 758 1.76%
Total Transposed 43,202
      Component Riding(s)

Niagara West-Glanbrook
(45.21% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
(45.14% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton Mountain
(9.66% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

David Sweet **
24,52739.20%
Jennifer Stebbing
22,87536.60%
Allison Cillis
10,32216.50%
Janet Errygers
3,8336.10%
David Tilden
9821.60%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

David Sweet **
24,13743.50%
Jennifer Stebbing
21,72839.10%
Mike DiLivio
7,77914.00%
David Allan Urquhart
1,8663.40%


 

26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
I have the PC's winning this seat.
01/05/2022 Hammer
142.116.165.176
Flam-Glan may be nominally Hamilton but its still Hamilton. Ironically, the urban sprawl Skelly supports may be her downfall as suburban Watardown-Flamorough tends to vote Liberal and as Hamilton residents spill over Rymal Road the NDP votes will increase. Skelly should still win but its not a slam dunk and if opposition coalesces around another candidate she will be in trouble.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Easy win for PC incumbent Donna Skelly.
14/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Re Skelly/Mulroney's police escort: remember that FlamGlan is only nominally a *Hamilton* riding, and that's due to the mega-amalgamation induced under a previous provincial Tory regime. Plus, the anticipated '21 federal Lib pickup due to open seatdom and suburbanization didn't take (then again, the rurban-plus-newburban nature of FlamGlan practically made it a western Golden Horseshoe pendant to Erin O'Toole's Durham, and w/a touch of Skippy's Carleton thrown in for good measure). Still, the NDP have one advantage over '18 in that their candidate's not a parachute--except that the Libs will probably claim '18 to be proof that the NDP's unelectable here, period: "vote for us, instead, you did so in the Ted McMeekin years". (And if that self-immolating tug of war happens, the following principle shall always be kept in mind: Flamborough Liberal, Glanbrook NDP.)
30/03/22 Finn
72.138.106.30
This riding should be a slam dunk for the PCs. They won by a healthy margin last time around, and both the Liberals and the NDP are too split to pose a threat to Donna Skelly. PC hold.
10/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
As this riding has only had 1 election under these boundaries isn?€™t a lot to look back on , it has been cpc federally the last 3 elections. Donna Skelly was first elected in 2018 but had ran previously in the old Ancaster Dundas riding. Ndp surged in Hamilton last election but didn?€™t win here so perhaps a tough riding for them , Allison Cillis there new candidate.
26/06/21 Hammer
142.120.104.154
When you are the sole gov't MP for a city of 500,000 who rarely votes for your party, you need to deliver and Skelly has not. There's really not much reason for people to vote for her yet the riding is fairly conservative leaning. It will be interesting to see who the Liberals nominate and how many votes move from the conservatives to the liberals. This will be tight -- incumbency and name recognition give Skelly some advantage but lack of results combined with growing urbanization point to the Liberals and then there is the natural tendency for Hamilton voters even in the suburbs to vote NDP. If Del Duca gains some traction as the Liberal leader (doubtful), it will swing Liberal. If not, its a three way race and we're looking at voter turnout and enthusiasm. And I'm still amused at the image of Caroline Mulroney along with Skelly leaving Hamilton under polce escort. If you need a police escort to leave the city you represent, you might be reconsider the way you represent your city.



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