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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Etobicoke North


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Blanc, Gabriel

D'Andrea, Andy

Ehikwe, Victor

Ford, Doug

Jahangir, Aisha

Lutete, Julie

Royer, Carol


Incumbent:
Doug Ford

Population (2016):

118040
Population (2011):117601


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

DOUG FORD
19,05552.48%
MAHAMUD AMIN
9,21025.37%
SHAFIQ QAADRI *
6,60118.18%
NANCY KAUR GHUMAN
1,0262.83%
BRIANNE LEFEBVRE
4141.14%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,322 45.65%
6,579 22.54%
7,493 25.67%
708 2.43%
OTHERS 1,083 3.71%
Total Transposed 29,184
      Component Riding(s)

Etobicoke North
(94.68% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Etobicoke Centre
(5.32% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kirsty Duncan **
26,38861.40%
Sarabjit Kaur
9,52422.20%
Naiima Farah
4,65410.80%
Renata Ford
1,1962.80%
Nancy Ghuman
1,0802.50%
Sudhir Mehta
1040.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kirsty Duncan **
26,25162.40%
Toyin Dada
9,67323.00%
Faisal Hassan
5,22012.40%
Akhtar Ayub
5241.20%
Anna Di Carlo
2320.60%
George Szebik
1640.40%


 

30/05/2022 Finn
72.138.106.30
Doug Fordís riding, and the heart of FordNation. Easy PC hold.
18/05/2022 CD
66.234.34.46
This definitely stays PC. No question
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Ford will remain MPP, but whether he can stay on as Premier is another question.
30/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
It'd take a *big* earthquake to dislodge Doug Ford; yet barring something Peterson '90-scale, it'd take Doug Ford's retirement to (almost certainly) dislodge Etobicoke North from PC hands. And given how '18 went in general, there wasn't much "somehow" to Shafiq Qaadri coming in 3rd--his vulnerabity was already apparent through his having the weakest Etobicoke Lib result in '14; plus, had it not been Doug Ford's riding, it would have been vulnerable to the NDP (who came in 2nd in '14) instead. Oh, and from a psephological standpoint, the dumbed-down "megapolls" Elections Ontario adopted in '18 (which robs election-stat enthusiasts, not to mention local campaign machines, of the opportunity to "read" the poll-by-polls with any fine-grained nuance) somehow befit the dumbed-down advent of Ford Nation politics; almost by way of sabotaging opposition efforts to defeat him...
15/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Doug Ford first got elected here provincially in 2018 and had previously represented this part of the city municipally. The area had been liberal when Shafiq Qaadri mpp who somehow came in 3rd here last election despite being the incumbent. This part of the city always been so called ford nation so would expect him to hold this riding.
01/08/21 Stevo
164.177.56.217
It was a gutsy move of Ford to run here in 2018 given the seat's utter absence of Conservative history, since we know popularity in one level of government rarely translates to another. Now that he's won, and by a massive margin, Etobicoke North is unlikely to revert to its Liberal automaton days so long as Ford remains the local MPP.
02/06/21 Teddy Boragina
45.72.203.77
Ford is very popular locally, much more so than his own party. Many across Ontario may dislike him, but they do not live in this riding. Even those who do, will (to some extent, however minor) split their vote between this opponents. As such, I can not see, at this time, how he loses this seat.
12/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This is Doug Ford's riding, aka Ford Nation. Ford will win handedly.



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