Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Davis, Jonathan

Dearing, Lauren

Doyle-Merrick, Natasha

Hebert, Arlena

Kaplun, Sam

Martin, Robin

Sharp, Derek

Sniedzins, Erwin E.

Thompson, Bryant

Tysoe, Leah

Robin Martin

Population (2016):

Population (2011):113150

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,855 54.80%
14,079 33.76%
3,060 7.34%
1,305 3.13%
OTHERS 407 0.98%
Total Transposed 41,706
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marco Mendicino **
Chani Aryeh-Bain
Alexandra Nash
Reuben DeBoer
Michael Staffieri

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marco Mendicino
Joe Oliver **
Andrew Thomson
Matthew Chisholm
Ethan Buchman
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici


01/06/2022 prog15
On probabilities, the only riding in Ontario where Liberals are favored to gain a PC-held seat based on Old City of Toronto high numbers. It might go Lib even against an overall trend (Eglinton-Lawrence).
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
General rumour from reporters has it that the Tories are quite worried about this riding. Should be an easy Liberal pickup, especially given the demographics.
26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This seat was Liberal up until 2018 when Robin Martin won it for the PC's. Martin has been a good MPP but I think the Liberal history in this riding will prove to be to much and the Liberals win a close race here on June 2.
19/05/2022 R.O.
This riding does have a long liberal history but I still feel some are placing too much weight on Mike Colle’s 2018 numbers and assuming any liberal would do that well here. he was a very personally popular mpp and held this seat since 1995. I highly doubt it would have been a 1 % pc margin in 2018 had it been Robin Martin vs Arlena Hebert instead. The ndp aren’t much of a factor here so riding always a race between pc and liberals. Ford still has strong support in parts of suburban Toronto and Robin Martin a relatively good mpp. Del Duca also campaigned in the riding this week so I still feel its going to be a close race here. political parties often assume they’ll win back close ridings they lost the next election but often doesn’t work out that way.
17/05/2022 Dr. Drae
Will be close again but PCs should hold this one. No star local candidate this time and Del Duca's campaign so far has been weak = PC win
13/05/2022 willowdale girl
this is an expected liberal pickup according to the results of the latest forum poll
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Robin Martin rode the blue wave to victory in 2018, but this riding will narrowly return to the Liberal fold with Arlena Hebert.
05/04/22 seasaw
I was quite surprised at the results of this riding in the last election. Robin Martin has done a decent job but this is Eglinton-Lawrence, a naturally Liberal riding. Had the Liberals not imploded this riding would've stayed Liberal. I doubt the Liberals will implode again, they may not win, they might even finish third, in either case this is one riding that they will win.
29/03/22 A.S.
My tailspin-into-irrelevance observation re the Libs potentially fumbling their Don Valley E/W holds also pertains to their potentially fumbling this low-hanging takeback opportunity. Yet in a funny way, out of those two NC Toronto '18 Lib defeats one could least have predicted, I can see Robin Martin as more vulnerable than Jill Andrew (i.e. Martin seems more fluke than paradigm-shifty, notwithstanding Ford Nation tendencies in the W part of the riding).
04/03/22 R.O.
Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate here and election is only a couple months away , seems odd seat is predicted as liberal. Mike Colle was very well known and a long time mpp likely the main reason there numbers stayed so high here in 2018 despite losing support elsewhere. Robin Martin is the current mpp and running again .likely this riding will be one of the more competitive ones in 416.
19/06/21 EP
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Eglinton and St. Paul's would no doubt be the top of the list.
06/06/21 Chris N
A year before the election, this is likely a Liberal pick-up. However, the western end of this riding is typically Ford Nation, based on the 2014 and 2018 mayoral election results. I can see a scenario in 2022 where the Liberals pick up seats in the old city of Toronto limits and 905 suburbs, but are unable to win back seats in quasi-suburban/inner-suburban ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence, due in large part to Ford's populist bent.
03/06/21 KXS
Low hanging fruit for the Liberals.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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