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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Eglinton-Lawrence


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:55
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Martin, Robin


Incumbent:
Robin Martin

Population (2016):

114395
Population (2011):113150


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

ROBIN MARTIN
19,99940.38%
MIKE COLLE *
19,04238.45%
ROBYN VILDE
8,98518.14%
REUBEN ANTHONY DEBOER
1,1902.40%
MICHAEL STAFFIERI
2110.43%
LIONEL WAYNE POIZNER
1000.20%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

22,855 54.80%
14,079 33.76%
3,060 7.34%
1,305 3.13%
OTHERS 407 0.98%
Total Transposed 41,706
      Component Riding(s)

Eglinton-Lawrence
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marco Mendicino **
29,85053.30%
Chani Aryeh-Bain
18,54933.10%
Alexandra Nash
4,7418.50%
Reuben DeBoer
2,2784.10%
Michael Staffieri
5861.00%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marco Mendicino
27,27848.90%
Joe Oliver **
23,78842.60%
Andrew Thomson
3,5056.30%
Matthew Chisholm
7991.40%
Ethan Buchman
3080.60%
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici
1140.20%


 

19/06/21 1 EP
45.41.168.91
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Eglinton and St. Paul's would no doubt be the top of the list.
06/06/21 1 Chris N
24.36.32.209
A year before the election, this is likely a Liberal pick-up. However, the western end of this riding is typically Ford Nation, based on the 2014 and 2018 mayoral election results. I can see a scenario in 2022 where the Liberals pick up seats in the old city of Toronto limits and 905 suburbs, but are unable to win back seats in quasi-suburban/inner-suburban ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence, due in large part to Ford's populist bent.
03/06/21 0 KXS
99.247.196.32
Low hanging fruit for the Liberals.



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