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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Durham


Prediction Changed
2022-05-16 12:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Anderson, Granville

Batra, Mini

Borgia, Chris

Devuono, Lou

Ford, Spencer

Mccarthy, Todd

Stravato, Tony


Incumbent:
Lindsey Park

Population (2016):

130872
Population (2011):115395


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

LINDSEY PARK
28,57546.99%
JOEL USHER
19,25331.66%
GRANVILLE ANDERSON *
10,23716.84%
MICHELLE CORBETT
2,3603.88%
RYAN ROBINSON
3820.63%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,532 34.19%
15,768 32.61%
13,752 28.44%
1,899 3.93%
OTHERS 405 0.84%
Total Transposed 48,356
      Component Riding(s)

Durham
(79.34% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Oshawa
(17.14% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Whitby-Oshawa
(3.51% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Erin O'Toole **
30,75242.10%
Jonathan Giancroce
23,54732.20%
Sarah Whalen-Wright
13,32318.20%
Evan Price
3,9505.40%
Brenda Virtue
1,4422.00%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Erin O'Toole **
28,96745.10%
Corinna Traill
22,94935.80%
Derek Spence
10,28916.00%
Stacey Leadbetter
1,6162.50%
Andrew Moriarity
3640.60%


 

26/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Federally this is the home of former Conservative leader Erin O'toole. Provincially this has been a long-time PC riding (Aside from 2014 which was far from the best election for the provincial PC's) Here in 2022 they keep this riding PC.
15/05/2022 Finn
174.114.72.203
Why this riding is still in the TCTC category is a mystery to me. I stand by my previous post that this will be an easy PC win, and it will not at all be close.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Incumbent PC-turned-independent Lindsay Park isn't running again. Former one-term Liberal Granville Anderson is trying to make a return to Queen's Park, but in my opinion PC candidate Todd McCarthy will block him. Odd that there are now SEVEN independents running in this constituency.
15/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
While Granville Anderson would appear to be as good as it gets for the Liberals in Durham, that doesn't presently make him a presumed threat on the Tory grip, particularly if losing Lindsey Park (and 418 tolls) gives the PCs a fresh start--and given the kind of Oshawa-orbit riding it is, it's not out of the question that Anderson might finish 3rd again. Though it's awfully "Rhino" of NOTA to have their own "Todd McCarthy" in the running. (And how time flies: in the space btw/2 provincial elections, Durham's had and lost a *federal* Conservative leader,)
04/04/22 KXS
72.137.76.35
Safe PC seat in the current climate. Even if the PCs lose the election, they should still hold on to a riding like Durham.
The Liberals 2014 win was somewhat of a fluke due to an awful PC leader, awful PC candidate and awful PC campaign.
07/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Lindsey Park left the pc caucus to sit as an independent and isn?€™t running again. New pc candidate is Todd Mccarthy who had ran for them before in durham region but in Ajax. Granville Anderson is running for the liberals again and unsure who ndp candidate is. Riding seen significant growth and boundaries changes in recent years but mostly been a pc riding provincially.
01/03/22 Finn
72.138.106.30
This should be an easy PC win. The federal Conservatives already have a strong support with their former leader being from this riding. It is not even unreasonable to assume that they could win by a larger margin as the rise of the Liberals could cause a vote split. Expect this riding to stay blue.



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