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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Davenport


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Alexander, Nicholas

Bilusic, Mario

Copple, Jack

Coutinho, Diti

Fogel, Simon

Levitan, Jerry

Spence, Paul

Stephenson, Karen

Stiles, Marit

Venuto, Nunzio


Incumbent:
Marit Stiles

Population (2016):

108473
Population (2011):102360


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

MARIT STILES
27,61360.27%
CRISTINA MARTINS *
8,55818.68%
FEDERICO SANCHEZ
7,37016.09%
KIRSTEN SNIDER
1,6243.54%
NUNZIO VENUTO
2100.46%
DAVE MCKEE
1520.33%
FRANZ CAUCHI
1270.28%
TROY YOUNG
960.21%
CHAI KALEVAR
690.15%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,272 45.61%
2,665 7.47%
14,322 40.15%
1,784 5.00%
OTHERS 631 1.77%
Total Transposed 35,674
      Component Riding(s)

Davenport
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Julie Dzerowicz **
23,25143.70%
Andrew Cash
21,81241.00%
Sanjay Bhatia
4,9219.30%
Hannah Conover-Arthurs
2,3974.50%
Francesco Ciardullo
4960.90%
Elizabeth Rowley
1380.30%
Troy Young
860.20%
Chai Kalevar
790.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Julie Dzerowicz
21,94744.30%
Andrew Cash **
20,50641.40%
Carlos Oliveira
5,23310.60%
Dan Stein
1,5303.10%
Miguel Figueroa
2610.50%
Chai Kalevar
1070.20%


 

31/05/2022 Chris N
154.6.27.37
A year after my initial prediction, I think this is a safe NDP hold. The Liberals will be more competitive in neighbouring ridings like University-Rosedale, St. Paul's and Eglinton-Lawrence.
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
I'm going with the NDP in this riding. If my prediction comes true with Horwath resigning as NDP leader Marit Stiles could be a name to watch for the provincial NDP leadership in Ontario.
22/05/2022 JT
142.181.94.215
No NDP candidate has ever been re-elected in the history of this riding. No NDP MP has ever won re-election. No NDP MPP has ever won re-election. There have been 27 federal and provincial elections in Davenport in the past 25 years. The Liberal candidate won 24 of those elections. The NDP candidate won 3 of those elections. Right now Jerry Levitan is winning the sign war on the main streets of Davenport. Marit Stiles is running a decidedly lacklustre campaign. This is a two way race between Jerry levitan and Marit Stiles and I believe that Marit is nervous about her chances.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Jerry Levitan is an interesting candidate for the Liberals (hey, how many other people can say they've gabbed with John Lennon?) but Marit Stiles, who smoked the Liberal incumbent by nearly 21,000 votes in 2018, will hold on easily. By this time next year she'll almost certainly be busy running for leader of the ONDP.
29/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Any recent-past impression of "one of the safest Liberal seats in the province" had more to do with the endurance of Tony Ruprecht's ethno-Liberal populism than anything--indeed, most of this was more provincial Lib/NDP swing territory from the 70s through to the 90s. But the demographics have changed, and much of that susceptible ethno-Liberalism has been gentrified away. Given the scale of her '18 victory, Stiles might have won anyway in a "sole NDP pickup" circumstance--now I'd even suggest that she's succeeded Peter Tabuns as safest NDP incumbent in Toronto (which is borne out through federal and municipal-mayoral figures i.e. this is the present hub of "Toronto progressivism"). And of course, she's often spoken of in terms of being a Horwath leadership successor.
17/03/22 seasaw
69.157.38.158
Never in my life did I think I was going to make an NDP prediction for this riding. This was once one of the safest Liberal seats in the province, the NDP however, have seen their support grow and an MPP like Marit Stiles, have made this a safe bet for all the NDP
14/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Marit Stiles was first elected here in 2018 , this riding had also been ndp in 2011 when Jonah Schein mpp but somehow went liberal in 2014. But wasn?€™t even close last election but was very close in last federal election when it barely stayed liberal. one of the higher profile ndp mpp?€™s so a likely hold
20/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
In the last decade, the NDP has witnessed significant growth in support in this riding. Last election, Marit Stiles won the riding with 60% of the vote. An ex-school trustee, she is media-savvy and has a high profile as the opposition's education critic. The Liberals are certain to improve on their paltry 2018 result next year, but I suspect it won't be enough to overtake Stiles.



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