Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-02-28 00:44:00

Constituency Profile



Ahluwalia, Birinder Singh

Arella, Gian Pietro

Barone, Ben

Berman, Hal David

Cho, Stan

Csillag, Joanne

Eklishaeva, Lilya

Henriques, Monica

Rodriguez, Jaime

Saguil, Paul

Sutherland, Charles Roddy

Stan Cho

Population (2016):

Population (2011):109680

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,637 52.83%
10,665 31.94%
3,701 11.09%
1,315 3.94%
OTHERS 68 0.20%
Total Transposed 33,385
      Component Riding(s)

(83.51% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

York Centre
(16.49% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ali Ehsassi **
Daniel Lee
Leah Kalsi
Sharolyn Vettese
Richard Hillier
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia
Shodja Ziaian

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ali Ehsassi
Chungsen Leung **
Pouyan Tabasinejad
James Arruda
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia


30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
A bellwether district since the 90's I think it will stay like that here in 2022 and we'll see Stan Cho keep the seat PC.
I really want the PCs to lose given how much they screwed over Toronto, but the lawn signs are clearly in Stan Cho's favor.
04/05/2022 GL
Jonathan Paul Saguil was parachuted into the Willowdale riding by the Liberal machine, after failed federal nomination attempts in Toronto Centre and Brampton. He has no known roots in the riding. I predict this to be a win for Stan Cho.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
PC numbers seem to be sinking quite a bit in Toronto. This inner suburban seat is vulnerable, and first-term MPP and junior minister Stan Cho could be going down.
16/04/22 willowdale girl
Besides the residents living in condominiums, there are also small business people living in modest single-family houses in Willowdale. You will see a mollie maid van, a taxi or a contractor's truck parked on a driveway. A neighbour still does some work from her home for her favourite hairdressing clients. The largest ethnic groups here are Chinese, Korean, Persian and Russian. Last provincial election I was busy registering new voters at a poll on election day, mostly mothers and grandmothers brought in by family members to vote for the candidate(I suspected) from their ethnic group.
04/04/22 R.O.
Stan Cho was first elected here in 2018 when he beat liberal mpp David Zimmer during an election which saw an ndp surge despite the fact they had previously never been a factor in this riding. Paul Saguil is the new liberal candidate and ndp yet to nominate. This riding had been pc for a long period in the 90’s before it went liberal in 2003 so for it to go pc last election was not a total surprise.
30/03/22 A.S.
Cho's been a good performer, but the NYCC subway/condo corridor's natural condition is that of non-Tory moderation--it's the whole generic weakness-of-opposition thing (maybe less micro in terms of candidacy than macro in terms of party: the debilitated Libs vs the weak-local-infrastructure Dippers as ships passing in the night) that's likelier to assure his victory, if victory's in the cards. Though it's a tricky riding to draw pro-Tory conclusions from--neither their 1990 win (different demos, an earlier version of debilitated Libs and uninfrastructured Dippers), nor their coming closer to winning here than anywhere else in the 416 in 2003 (David Young's personal appeal), nor its being the technically tightest Lib-Con federal race in the 416 in '19 (but *not* '21), quite illuminates the picture here--it's more that they *can* be strong, than that they *are* strong in any consistent way.
27/12/21 seasaw
Unlike the federal riding of Willowdale, which is a safe Liberal riding, the provincial riding isn?€™t like that. Provincially this riding has been bellwether, save for 1990, when it went PC instead for NDP, this prediction is based on the latest polls which shows the PC?€?s poised to win again. The polls may change and so can the prediction
06/11/21 seasaw
I?€™m making this prediction based on the latest polls and the latest polls indicate a PC win. This riding has been bellwether ever since the beginning of time, the only time that the winning party didn?€™t take this riding was in 1990 when the PC candidate won over the Liberal by just over 100 votes. Polls however, will change and so can this prediction. If NDP is ahead just before the election, then the Liberal candidate has a great shot at winning, but as things stand now, it?€™s a PC hold.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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