Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-03-27 18:30:00

Constituency Profile



Coe, Lorne

Labaj, Emil

Labelle, Sara

Lackner, Trystan

Leblanc, Stephanie

Mohammed, Aadil

Rinella, Christopher

Thom, Douglas

Lorne Coe

Population (2016):

Population (2011):122022

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,969 32.77%
20,171 41.39%
10,242 21.02%
2,105 4.32%
OTHERS 246 0.50%
Total Transposed 48,733
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ryan Turnbull
Todd McCarthy
Brian Dias
Paul Slavchenko
Mirko Pejic

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Celina Caesar-Chavannes
Pat Perkins **
Ryan Kelly
Craig Cameron
Jon O'Connor


30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This area has been a PC area for a long time, I think that will stay the same after June 2.
07/05/2022 R.O.
Some odd candidate news here the liberals had put out a news release on april 20 nominating Carleen Blisett. But a new release just went out today saying Aadil Mohammed is being nominated as the liberal candidate in Whitby. So she must of decided not to run or something changed her plans last minute. The ndp also running Sara Labelle not 2018 candidate Nikki Lundquist who did well here . but a longtime pc riding at the provincial level and Lorne Coe well liked mpp.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Government Whip Lorne Coe should easily hold this seat. Carleen Blissett of the Liberals may make a contest of it.
15/04/22 A.S.
Whitby isn't even that much of a "one of the safer PC seats in the 905" case anymore--Lorne Coe did worse in '18 than Christine Elliott did in Newmarket-Aurora, and that was the *weakest* seat for the PCs in York Region. It really is the Flaherty-Elliott lineage skewing electoral impressions of Con safety in recent times; but dare to say, Lundquist's surprisingly stiff challenge in '18 hinted at the actual vulnerabilities beneath the surface--and in a seat which no longer had any supposedly Dipper-favourable "Oshawa parts", at that. Plus, Whitby seems to have become a point of transition btw/"Oshawa populism" and the more polyglot GTA dynamic spreading from Scarborough and into Pickering and Ajax--which might be why the NDP side of the ledger seems to have gone *up* there, vs settling down in Oshawa. But more than in Oshawa, it's a side of the ledger vulnerable to defaulting back into the big-tent Liberal camp--or at least, there isn't exactly a prospect of the NDP gaining Whitby while losing Oshawa. And were Elliott not the candidate, it might well have gone Lib in '14 in much the same Hudak-bomb way that Newmarket-Aurora did; so again, let's not get hasty in overstating the Tory stronghold-dom here. But in terms of '22, even if the Libs repatriate any of their old strength, Whitby's still a likelier NDP than Lib pickup, if only because of how far back (not just locally, but provincially) the Libs are coming from. (And its not unprecedented for an NDP pickup and a Lib share gain to happen spontaneously--it happened in Oshawa next door in 14. But the fact that we can now speak in serious terms of the NDP picking up Whitby *at all* speaks volumes.)
26/03/22 seasaw
No contest here, Lorne Coe's got this riding. Niki Lundquist is running for the NDP again, last election Niki had a strong support last election, in spite of that, she lost by 10%. This time, you can't expect the Liberals to get only 12%, they'll be much stronger and the majority of their support is going to come from NDP, thus enabling the PC's to hold this riding
21/03/22 R.O.
Lorne Coe was first elected in a 2016 by election in old Whitby Oshawa riding. The Whitby area has a long history of being pc provincially despite having been liberal federally at times. Last election more of a pc/ndp race and unclear if Nikki Lundquist plans to run for ndp again. Liberals yet to select a candidate
10/03/22 The Lobster
Whitby is becoming a less and less reliable Conservative seat. Even so, if the PCs even get a plurality of seats in Ontario (highly likely), they will take it with ease, especially with an incumbent. This remains one of the safer PC seats in the 905. Whether this seat will ever send another opposition PC member is an interesting question, but not one that is likely to be answered this year.
09/03/22 KXS
Whitby will remain a PC riding unless something significant changes during the election campaign.
The Liberals and NDP both have a shot at winning this riding, should they be leading the popular vote.
09/03/22 Finn
I expect the PCs to be able to win this riding. The Liberals and the NDP are splitting the vote throughout the province, and no bigger example is evident than in this riding. The Liberals seem to have no problem winning this riding federally, but they are polling in third in this riding provincially. However, they will still eat into enough NDP votes to keep this riding securely blue.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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