Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Aitken, Andrew

Esmail, Shefaza

Fife, Catherine

House, Peter

Hufnagel, Benjamin

Shingiro, Christian

Tuck, Jennifer

Voznyuk, Vladimir

Catherine Fife

Population (2016):

Population (2011):103192

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,248 30.17%
11,964 27.24%
16,137 36.74%
2,211 5.03%
OTHERS 357 0.81%
Total Transposed 43,917
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bardish Chagger **
Jerry Zhang
Lori Campbell
Kirsten Wright
Erika Traub

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bardish Chagger
Peter Braid **
Diane Freeman
Richard Walsh
Emma Hawley-Yan


31/05/2022 Chris N
This will be an NDP hold, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a tighter race between the NDP and PCs than expected.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Prior to Fife's first run here in 2012 this was a PC area, 10 yrs. later this is a strong NDP seat. I see some say she may run for NDP leader. Given I think the NDP leadership could be up for grabs in Ontario after Thursday I wonder if Fife jumps in. Either way she will be re-elected.
30/05/2022 seasaw
Oops, in my previous posting, I mustve clicked on the wrong party icon, but if you read the post, its quite clear what my prediction was. It wouldve probably gone PC if Catherine Fife wasnt running. Now this may be a bit closer than last time, but Catherine Fife will take the top spot. I would say that its her riding for as long as she wants it.
25/05/2022 seasaw
While the PCs are running a strong campaign, they will once again come short of winning this riding. As Ive mentioned before, this isnt a riding that votes its incumbents out. Catherine Fife has incumbency advantage, when she retires, who knows whats going to happen. Dont know if Catherine has leadership aspirations.
21/05/2022 ME
Fife has a 3 point lead so closer than in the past but she will be reelected
Editor's Note: This poster has consistently mislabelled modeling by 338canada.com as local polling, which is not the case.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Without Catherine Fife, this seat would likely go Liberal. However, the high-profile Fife has managed to keep a strong grip on this wealthy, well-educated constituency. Should she be successful, next year she might be seeking the NDP leadership.
20/04/22 A.S.
One could just look at the recent federal record, from Telegdi to Chagger, as proof of how sublimely Lib-amenable the campus/tech/egghead realm of Waterloo is--but provincially, Fife has too much of a head start proxying for all of that (and as such, was a flagship for *all* of Waterloo Region becoming Dipper-viable in '18, even places where you'd least expect it like Kitchener-Conestoga). And the provincial Libs really aren't in the shape to stage an upset from their end this time; or at least, it'd require a Justin vs Mulcair leadership circumstance rather than a Andrea vs Del Duca leadership circumstance to make something like *that* happen. (And the Tories would require a Patrick Brown rather than a Doug Ford.)
04/04/22 R.O,
Catherine Fife was first elected here in a 2012 by election back when the ndp won a few surprise by elections in southern Ontario. But she managed to get re elected twice here in what was not typically an ndp riding but does have a younger population and large university area , would imagine the race will be closer than last election but without any star candidates running against her does seem like she has the advantage here. new pc candidate is Andrew Aitken and liberals running Rami Said .
08/03/22 AD
Catherine Fife is no joke.
07/03/22 seasaw
Obviously the previous poster, has no idea of what he/she is talking about when it comes to this riding. While he/she is right about some ridings in 416 and 519, this isn?€™t one of them. The NDP has held this seat since 2013, and before that it was a PC seat for 23 years. In fact, a Liberal hasn?€™t won in this riding since 1987. Liberals have finished third in this riding almost as many times as they finished second. NDP hold.
Liberals may win this seat back because the academic world tends to vote Liberal. Only reason why NDP got into the 416, and some of the 519 ridings is because Wynne conceded defeat. Now with Liberals have a new Leader, it could cause many ridings the NDP won from the Liberals to go back to the Liberals.
Waterloo is one of the ridings I can see going Liberal
07/11/21 seasaw
This riding has traditionally voted for the person rather than the party, Herb Epp held the riding during the Davis and Peterson years until his retirement in 1990, then Elizabeth Witmer won in the year that NDP won the election and held it till her retirement, Catherine Fife has held it ever since and unless there?€™s a total NDP implosion, she?€™ll keep it till she decides to retire
I think Catherine Fife's own popularity outweighs the popularity of the NDP by itself in Waterloo. As long as she is on the ballot, I don't see the NDP losing the seat.

Navigate to Ontario 2022 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2022 | www.electionprediction.org | Email Webmaster