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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Toronto-Danforth


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Brophy, Christopher

Fragedakis, Mary

Kandias, Milton

Levy, Marcelo

Mccleery, Colleen

Moxon, Jennifer

Simopoulos, George

Tabuns, Peter


Incumbent:
Peter Tabuns

Population (2016):

106875
Population (2011):104017


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

PETER TABUNS *
32,93864.25%
PATRICIA KALLIGOSFYRIS
8,13115.86%
LI KOO
7,21614.07%
ANDREW TROTTER
2,2484.38%
PAUL LAYTON
3410.67%
IVAN BYARD
1670.33%
JOHN KLADITIS
1180.23%
JOHN RICHARDSON
1100.21%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,983 37.16%
4,304 10.01%
19,190 44.61%
2,351 5.47%
OTHERS 1,189 2.76%
Total Transposed 43,017
      Component Riding(s)

Toronto-Danforth
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Julie Dabrusin **
27,68147.70%
Min Sook Lee
19,28333.20%
Zia Choudhary
6,09110.50%
Chris Tolley
3,7616.50%
Tara Dos Remedios
6211.10%
Elizabeth Abbott
2610.40%
John Kladitis
2100.40%
Ivan Byard
1510.30%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Julie Dabrusin
23,53142.30%
Craig Scott
22,32540.20%
Benjamin Dichter
5,4789.90%
Chris Tolley
2,6184.70%
John Richardson
1,2752.30%
Elizabeth Abbott
3540.60%


 

30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
Provincially this seat has been NDP for a long time. That won't change on June 2. NDP hold.
23/05/2022 jeff316
184.175.13.73
So in the end Mary Fragedakis was bitter that the NDP machine chose Paula Fletcher over her when running for the combined wards in the 2018 municipal election! Why else would The Fradge thumb her nose at her old party to run in a no-hope riding against one of the NDP's stalwarts? Not good political sense, but likely good strategic sense - nicely positioning herself for a run when Tabuns retires, providing she can keep this race competitive (which I think she will.)
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Not sure about the effect of former city councillor Mary Fragedakis running for the Liberals will be, but the NDP is still polling better in Toronto than they were in 2014 when this was one of the two seats that they won. Long-serving Peter Tabuns will be re-elected.
29/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
The "official" safest-ONDP-seat-in-Toronto (i.e. the only one that's been NDP all this century--and of course, Jack Layton's former federal seat). But if anything, the provincial party's been *overachieving* here as of late--by comparison, gentrification has led it to cede federal and mayoral left-supremacy honours to Davenport and Parkdale-High Park. Maybe Fragedakis's candidacy is investment in the notion of T-D being provincially Lib-viable, the long-term next domino to fall after B-EY. But not likely now, unless the Dipper's are reduced to Hampton-era seat numbers.
10/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Peter Tabuns was first elected in 2006 and this riding had been ndp for some time before that. Doubtful the ndp will hold all there current seats in Toronto that they won during 2018 surge but likely they?€™ll keep some of them based on current trends .
26/02/22 Max Eccles
179.61.245.37
Tabuns will keep Danforth. Safe NDP seat.
12/05/21 Chris Nethercott
24.36.32.209
Tabuns won by one of the largest margins in Ontario in 2018. The Liberals have nominated former city councillor, Mary Fragedakis, who represented the northern half of the riding, prior to 2018. Interestingly, Fragedakis was an NDP-affiliated councillor when on council, and had the Danforth Layton and Tabuns machine help her get elected to council in 2010. Fragedakis is likely to increase her party's support in 2022, but it won't be enough to topple Tabuns.



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