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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Thornhill


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Ginsberg, Jacob Joel

Kambo, Jasleen

Mikanovsky, Daniella

Mirabella, Laura

Patel, Hiten

Pesis, Roman

Polyakov, Aleksei

Smith, Laura

Tvorogov, Igor

Ying, Brandon

Zarkhine, Yakov


Incumbent:
Gila Martow

Population (2016):

112719
Population (2011):110427


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

GILA MARTOW *
28,88961.13%
EZRA TANEN
9,13419.33%
SABI AHSAN
6,98514.78%
RACHEL DOKHOIAN
1,0432.21%
MIKE HOLMES
6211.31%
ABOVE ZNONEOFTHE
4100.87%
ALEKSEI POLYAKOV
1770.37%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,688 43.28%
17,228 44.68%
3,089 8.01%
922 2.39%
OTHERS 631 1.64%
Total Transposed 38,557
      Component Riding(s)

Thornhill
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Kent **
29,18754.60%
Gary Gladstone
18,94635.40%
Sara Petrucci
3,4696.50%
Josh Rachlis
1,6003.00%
Nathan Bregman
2170.40%
Waseem Malik
770.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Kent **
31,91158.60%
Nancy Coldham
18,39533.80%
Lorne Cherry
2,8145.20%
Josh Rachlis
6271.20%
Gene Balfour
5871.10%
Margaret Leigh Fairbairn
1570.30%


 

30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
The new PC candidate may be a bit weaker than Martow but this riding is a strong PC riding, Smith should hold the riding for the PC's.
29/05/2022 North 905
209.171.88.245
If you looked at the credibility of candidates this would go the Liberals with ease. But theres too much apathy and ignorance in the riding, and Laura Smith may ride that wave to victory. Far from a superstar candidate, she took the PC nomination when many others passed at the opportunity. Thornhill has been known for having very strong community candidates for a couple of decades. Smith will pale in comparison and is likely the weakest potential MPP the riding has seen in a generation.
18/05/2022 Will
184.149.37.144
I am not surprised that Gila isn't running again. She must not have gotten off on the right foot with Ford for whatever reason. Losing the federal nomination race was the last straw.
Thornhill is one of the safest CPC seats east of Manitoba, however provincial races have been tighter in the past. I know next to nothing about Laura Smith but I do suspect she's headed to Queens Park. The only question is whether she gets 50% or not.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Heavily Jewish, pretty wealthy, this is just about the safest non-rural PC seat. New candidate Laura Smith will replace Gila Martow.
05/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
That Thornhill *wasn't* the best Tory riding in York Region in '18 might reflect the "moderating" influence of the Steeles frontier (whereas Markham-Unionville's more wide-open ethnoburban-sprawl interior)--but the *real* shock was the scale of Lib collapse; I'd imagine that *nobody* would have imagined they'd fall behind the NDP in what's traditionally been among the 5 or so weakest NDP ridings in Ontario. And I'd imagine that nobody'd be anticipating the same now--that the Libs have learned, and voters have forgotten, and we're not far from Del Duca country anyway. But that's only about repatriating 2nd place. And if the OLP can't do even *that*, then they're on the precipice of a no-official-party-status repeat.
02/04/22 Stevo
164.177.56.215
This was the federal Conservatives' only majority win in the GTA last year, with Melissa Lantsman at 51%. Best the provincial Liberals can do is hold Laura Smith to around ~50% rather than the 60%+ achieved by Gila Martow.
07/03/22 Lanb
76.66.120.71
The outgoing sitting MPP Gila Martow may as well be a de-facto independent, she's come out against her party on numerous occasions. She hasn't been visible since she was smoked by Melissa Lantsman (tells you what the riding thinks of her) in the federal nomination. Nonetheless, this riding has a history of sending PCs to Queen's Park both in government and out. Can't see that changing. Laura Smith may be unknown but she will ride the party name to victory.
04/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
No incumbent as Gila Martow not running again after a failed attempt to win federal nomination. The riding has been pc provincially for a number of years but not won by large margins like the federal seat has been although York region more favourable for pcs now so likely they?€™d hold the seat. It appears new pc candidate is Laura Smith .
20/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Much like the federal riding, Thornhill has become a PC stronghold over recent election cycles. Incumbent PC MPP Gila Martow has stated that she will not run for re-election. As of May 2021, no PC candidate has been nominated, but I'm confident that whoever the PCs will select will win the riding easily in 2022.



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