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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Simcoe North


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Brooks, Krystal

Cayden Hiltz, Aaron

Douris, Mark

Dunlop, Jill

Joslin, William

Macdonald, Aaron

Van Houtte, Elizabeth


Incumbent:
Jill Dunlop

Population (2016):

111332
Population (2011):108672


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

JILL DUNLOP
25,23646.92%
ELIZABETH VAN HOUTTE
15,07828.03%
GERRY MARSHALL
9,52317.70%
VALERIE POWELL
3,6326.75%
CYNTHIA SNEATH
3200.59%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

14,394 32.18%
19,556 43.71%
7,224 16.15%
3,562 7.96%
OTHERS !Syntax Error, *%
Total Transposed 44,735
      Component Riding(s)

Simcoe North
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bruce Stanton **
27,24143.40%
Gerry Hawes
19,31030.80%
Angelique Belcourt
8,85014.10%
Valerie Powell
5,8829.40%
Stephen Makk
1,1541.80%
Chris Brown
3410.50%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bruce Stanton **
24,83643.50%
Liz Riley
22,71839.80%
Richard Banigan
6,03710.60%
Peter Stubbins
2,5434.50%
Jacob Kearey-Moreland
6181.10%
Scott Whittaker
3190.60%


 

30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
A long time PC seat, I think they'll hold on here as well on June 2.
29/05/2022 Sofa Pollster
99.236.192.66
What will be the fallout of the campaigns run by the two other right parties and the absence of the incubant from All Candidate meetings including the one held at Lakehead U. The seat is a SAFE PC hold but the margin will be far less than last election. Less than 5k is my guess. Incumbant more known for photo ops not substance. Not sure that the combined fringe right will get 5% and LIB will garner more votes as well.
12/05/2022 Niccol?
35.183.132.144
The Conservative incumbent Jill Dunlop is facing two candidates on the right, Mark Douris of the New Blue Party and Aaron MacDonald of the Ontario Party, both of whom are running surprisingly strong sign campaigns. This should be a concern for local conservatives. The Liberal candidate Aaron Cayden-Hiltz is a young breath of fresh air, the NDP candidate Elizabeth Van-Houtte is a perennial also ran, and the Green candidate Krystal Brooks is a third time sacrificial lamb. Incumbent Jill Dunlop does not have a reputation for hard work nor does she seem to have a head for policy but she has her father's name, and Garfield was popular in Simcoe North. I predict she will win with a margin of several thousand votes despite being one of the least impressive candidates running and that the Liberals will have have a respectable second place showing.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
This is a safe PC seat and Jill Dunlop will be easily re-elected.
20/04/22 Sofa Pollster
99.236.192.66
It is a SAFE seat and neither major opposition party have done enough or have the high porfile candidate to buck the trend. Bet the farm on Jill Dunlop returning to Queen's Park.
15/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Considering the favourable conditions for her party and that it was an incumbent seat thanks to her father, Jill Dunlop actually underperformed in '18--but that's because of token bottom-feeding by a star Liberal candidate on behalf of a hopeless cause, Penetang Mayor/Simcoe County Warden Gerry Marshall. Whose 17.7% was *amazing* for a non-metropolitan Liberal in a non-incumbent seat that year--and that's the state the OLP was in; what once would have been abysmal was now amazing. Meanwhile, the Dipper who *did* run 2nd is running again--but this is a riding with a history of the Tories at worst coming up the middle through opposition splitting (most especially in the '87 and '90 nadirs for the party); and these days, well, again, it's a non-metropolitan seat, which generically favours the PCs however much "metropolitanizing" GTA economic/Covid refugees might seek to migrate to Mariposa.
14/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Jill Dunlop was first elected in 2018 , her father had been mpp for same riding so she?€™s well known in the riding. The riding is growing in places like Orillia so perhaps it becomes more competitive in the future but will likely stay pc this year.
02/06/21 Teddy Boragina
45.72.203.77
My home riding. It leans somewhat right, but is also moderate. It's winnable, under the right circumstances, for all 4 parties. Those would be
Greens - This riding would come as part of the package deal should they win a dozen or two seats.
NDP - A large enough majority government would likely also get enough support from places like Orillia and Midland to enable them to take this riding.
Liberals - A majority government, even if of moderate size, could well get enough support from not only the cities and towns, but the francophone areas of the riding, to enable a Liberal victory.
Local - A local issue could pop up that skews the expected result. No such issue currently is large enough to do so.
As I make this post, the PC Party is polling in first place, even if only with a bit more than a third of the vote. The Greens are firmly in 4th. As such, none of the right circumstances exist, for anyone else to win.
PC Victory.



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