Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Brampton North

Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 01:53:00

Constituency Profile



Bauman, Julia

Dhade, Aneep

Fussek, Jerry

Malhi, Harinder K.

Mcgregor, Graham

Singh, Sandeep

Kevin Yarde

Population (2016):

Population (2011):111951

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,460 39.93%
8,239 24.44%
10,555 31.31%
1,149 3.41%
OTHERS 309 0.92%
Total Transposed 33,713
      Component Riding(s)

(78.39% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(15.71% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Brampton West
(5.90% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ruby Sahota **
Arpan Khanna
Melissa Edwards
Norbert D'Costa
Keith Frazer

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ruby Sahota
Parm Gill **
Martin Singh
Pauline Thornham
Harinderpal Hundal


02/06/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Not sure why this is still TCTC. I have Brampton Centre and Brampton West being closer than this one, which should make this a safe PC call. In addition, a riding like this, on the north end of brampton, would like the 413, which should make this a pretty easy conservative pickup, even ignoring the Kevin Yarde stuff. NDP will be back in third.
27/05/2022 seasaw
I agree with Dr Bear on this one. It seems like the NDP is trying to be the third party again. Horwaths campaign has been her worst since she became leader. On the other hand, DelDuca hasnt been all that effective either. Also, for the Liberals to nominate the same candidate, doesnt bode very well, it shows that theyre willing to go back to what they were rather than a new hope for the future. All of this, coupled with the fact that the PCs are polling strong in 905, should put this riding in the blue column.
25/05/2022 Dr Bear
Others have commented on the NDP foolishly dumping their incumbent for an unknown, so I wont elaborate on it. However it will cost them a few points and thats all it will take for the PCs to win it. Never mind that the Liberals are rerunning the former MPP, who will take a decent chunk of the vote away from team orange. I swear its almost as if the NDP are tired of being official opposition and want to be the third party!
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Some controversy here pre-election as the NDP incumbent lost his nomination race.The Liberals are running Harinder Malhi here again.He was a MPP here prior to 2018. He should do well but given the PC's look on track to win the election and Ford kicked the election off in this riding I think the PC's will win here.
13/05/2022 AB
Doug Ford is polling very strong in the 905 - he even kicked off the campaign in this riding. Graham McGregor could very well take this riding without an NDP incumbent and a progressive split.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
NDP incumbent Kevin Yarde was ousted in contentious circumstances. Unlike fellow former NDP MPP Paul Miller, he will not run as an independent and save the NDP froma vote split. From what I can see, it won't make much of a difference anyway. Yarde was a surprise win in 2018 anyway, and I believe former Liberal MPP Harinder Malhi will be returning to Queen's Park.
25/04/22 R.O.
Kevin Yarde has left the ndp caucus and sitting as an independent mpp for the remainder of his term. My guess is he is wishing he jumped ship sooner and left for another party who surely would of made sure he secured the nomination for Brampton North. Seems like a case of new guy was able to win the nomination but won’t win during the general election. feel like Brampton has had some crazy nomination races but I can’t recall an incumbent losing to a virtually unknown candidate before .
12/04/22 ME
NDP’s Black caucus members criticize ouster of incumbent MPP
The stunning loss of NDP MPP Kevin Yarde to Sandeep Singh in a Brampton North nomination battle has sent a shockwave through Queen’s Park, where other major parties don’t allow such challenges to sitting MPPs, Robert Benzie reports. Yarde says he’s weighing his future political options. Here’s why Black caucus members are publicly criticizing the party’s decision not to protect the incumbent’s spot.
More: “I would rather have had … 100,000 people in Brampton North determine my fate as opposed to 150 people at a riding association,? the first-term member told reporters Monday.
Go deeper: Singh has less than eight weeks to build his profile in the Brampton riding the NDP won by just 500 votes four years ago. Ontarians head to the polls on June 2.
Word from Andrea Horwath: The NDP leader called the process democratic, saying “as a leader, I really have nothing to do with that.? But a former NDP MPP insisted “the leader’s office is always aware? of nomination fights.
11/04/22 A.S.
It'd seem that the main "issue" w/Yarde is that he was the only candidate of *any* of the 3 major parties in Brampton in '18 to *not* be of S Asian origin in some way or another. And as far as "funky wins" go, Yarde's win is less "funky" once one considers that the NDP placed a 30% plus strong second in the predecessor riding in '14, largely on Jagmeet Sikh coattails in "Singhdale"--so if they're seeking a candidate of *that* background instead, there you have it. (Remember: in Brampton, Jagmeet changed *everything*.) Ironically, the PCs have swerved even further in the non-S-Asian direction w/*their* current Brampton North candidate--which if it were to be Yarde again, would have left Malhi all alone on that side of the ethno-spectrum. But that doesn't automatically make OLP the "default choice" when they're starting from as far behind as they are provincially. And Malhi's "name recognition" would be more meaningful had she gotten closer to the 30% threshold a la Dipika Damerla than the 21% she actually got in '18--so, really, I don't think the NDP nomination debacle necessarily kneecaps their chances; indeed, they might have done even *better* (yeah, on ethno-political grounds) with this kind of candidate in '18. Of course, '18 is not '22.
10/04/22 Jeremus von Stroehim
It's baffling as to why the NDP would torpedo an incumbent so close to an election. Seems it's already creating caucus division and anger among volunteers, but whether it will end their provincial campaign remains to be seen. Should be a PC pickup, unless the Liberals start passing them in the polls
31/03/22 KXS
It's unusual to see the NDP having a contested nomination in a riding with an incumbent. I'm curious if there are any issues with incumbent MPP Kevin Yarde.
Either way, Liberal is the default choice in a riding such as Brampton North. The party is going to pick up at least a few seats in the GTA in this election cycle and I can see Brampton North being one of them.
30/03/22 R.O.
An update was reading an article about this riding , it turns out Kevin Yarde might not be the ndp candidate this election in which case it almost certainlty will go to another party. without an incumbent very difficult to see any scenario where this riding stays ndp as they won here by so little in 2018 and was mostly seen as a funky win as ndp rarely wins seats in Peel. There is a nomination meeting on april 7th and Yarde is running against Sandeep Singh for the ndp nomination in this riding.
19/03/22 seasaw
This was close the last time. We know that the PC?€™s will be targeting this seat, we know that the NDP will be working hard to keep it. We also know that the Liberals have a good candidate with great name recognition. How does that play ? The Liberal candidate will take away a chunk of the NDP vote and some of the PC vote. Let?€™s say the Liberal share of the vote goes up 9 points, NDP drops 7 and PC drops 2, it?€™ll be a PC win. Of course things may change in the coming weeks, but right now, it?€™s a PC gain
08/03/22 R.O.
This riding currently held by ndp mpp Kevin Yarde who was first elected in 2018 in a close race with the pc candidate. I can?€™t recall ever seeing much of this mpp and watch a fair bit of news, ndp would have been wise to try and boost his profile at queens park as he seems to be lesser known and they typically don?€™t win seats in the 905 that often. The new pc candidate is Graham Mcgregor and liberals running former mpp Harinder Malhi again. Tough area to predict at this point
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Del Duca won every single delegate from this riding in the leadership race. The liberals are also running Harinder Malhi again, whose name brand probably helps in this riding. Will probably be a race between the liberals and ndp, though the conservatives could probably win under a good split. I'd say it's a tossup for now, with a slight liberal edge.

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