Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 02:18:00

Constituency Profile



Ali, Intab

Barnes, Patrice

Bowen, Amber

Hadley, Allen

Hopkins, Aaron

Reader, Garry

Runnalls, Neil

Santos, Christine

Rod Phillips

Population (2016):

Population (2011):109600

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,825 51.77%
11,471 28.52%
6,544 16.27%
1,174 2.92%
OTHERS 214 0.53%
Total Transposed 40,229
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Holland **
Tom Dingwall
Shokat Malik
Maia Knight
Susanna Russo
Allen Keith Hadley
Intab Ali

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Holland
Chris Alexander **
Stephanie Brown
Jeff Hill
Bob Kesic


02/06/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
If the Liberal's were to win one seat in the GTA, it would be this one, owing both to natural Liberal strength here, and local anger at Steve Parish being removed as a candidate. I think it will go Liberal, but we shall see.
31/05/2022 R.O.
There is a mainstreet poll for Ajax , very similar numbers to forum poll . Amber Bowen liberal 37 , Patrice Barnes pc 29 , Neil Runnails green 7 and Christine Santos ndp 6. Ndp came second here last time so hard to believe theyve gone down to 4th in a durham region riding. Pcs were scheduled to hold a rally for durham in Ajax but appears to have been moved to Toronto. Province wide numbers from mainstreet show a big pc lead and many people already voted at the advance polls so this riding might be won by a couple % either way. https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/30/riding-poll-liberals-eke-out-lead-in-ajax/
30/05/2022 Eric
Strong PC hold ... Ajax is pretty much a bellweather riding, maybe even a right lean if you consider the Flaherty/Elliott years of representation in the opposition back in the early 2000s for that part of Ajax in their riding at the time ...
27/05/2022 SuburbanDad
This riding could have the tightest totals on the day in the province. I'm going to give the OPC the riding and sweep of the Durham region. Del Duca support is very soft, especially in 905 areas and his support of mandatory vaccines for children capped his ceiling. I don't see Liberal voters being as motivated and the polling margins of error are well within to reflect soft Liberal support.
27/05/2022 R.O.
This riding is featured in a citynews article on key ridings and poll from forum polling. There numbers for Ajax were 40 Amber Bowen Liberal and 32 Patrice Barnes pc but doesnt mention ndp/green numbers. which is interesting as I havent really been seeing any riding specific polls from the 905 with liberals ahead and there polling well above provincial average here so perhaps a stronger pocket of liberal support , Im not really sure . the pcs held nearby Whitby and Oshawa when in opposition so maybe something similar is going on here. but is new province wide polls out today with pcs way ahead so not entirely sure what will happen here. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
25/05/2022 R.O.
This riding looked more promising for the opposition early on but considering were now into day 7 of advance polls and every single province wide poll shows a large gap between the pcs and liberals. its tough to see how the opposition could win here based on the current numbers. Patrice Barnes isnt a high profile candidate but pcs have typically done well in Durham region when there in power . this would have been a very interesting riding had there been a by election but Rod Phillips stayed late enough one wasnt needed. Would of also been much closer had Steve Parish been the ndp candidate.
25/05/2022 Tony
I think the Liberals will win this seat back on June 2. Could be one of the closest races on June 2 but I think the Liberals will win here.
19/05/2022 ricardamundo
Had Steve Parish run for the NDP this would have been one of the key ridings to watch on election night because while the NDP probably would not normally have been in the fight here, Parish would have changed that for sure. The PCs shot themselves in the foot with the Rod Phillips nonsense and I think they'll be made to pay for that. Finally, with Joe Dickson gone (RIP) the Liberals with their fresh-faced new candidate should be positioned to do well.
18/05/2022 An Observer
I don't live in Ajax, but I do work here and have fairly good contacts in the community. I got to know Rod Phillips a little bit over the last 4 years and his departure will hurt the PCs - yes, he had taken heat over his Carribean vacation in the midst of Covid restrictions, but he was high profile and he kept in touch with the community. Patrice Barnes has some name recognition as a school trustee, but Amber Bowen and the Liberals seem to have a pretty strong ground game going - many, many signs throughout the riding at people's residences, not on public land. It's a 2 way race and I'd be inclined to give her the edge in this one.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Disgraced former Finance Minister Rod Phillips is not running again. Liberals bottomed out last time to third behind the NDP, but previously it's been a bellwether that has consistently gone with the party that's formed government. PCs should hold this seat with their candidate, school trustee Patrice Barnes, with the Liberals up to a strong second.
15/04/22 A.S.
The irony is, if the ONDP were truly serious about building upon '18, Ajax ought to be viable for them even in Steve Parish's absence--heck, they could have won it in '18 had more people taken their viability seriously *then* (and had there not been either Joe Dickson or Rod Phillips as distractions). And that after all the hoopla, Phillips won w/less than 40% really signals how off-orbit Ajax has become from assumed Conservative slam-dunkdom over the space of a generation. Of course, the federal record under Mark Holland screams out Lib-friendliness; but given the uncertain/unproven state of the provincial party, I'd rather look upon Ajax in provisional promiscuous-progressive terms--or, the dynamic flows 3 ways. But because Ford Nation's Ford Nation and there's no longer a Joe Dickson to hog the vestigial Lib-incumbent ballots at the bottom, it's not inconceivable that the PCs could do better *without* Rod Phillips than they did with him.
29/03/22 R.O.
This had been Rod Phillips riding he had been elected here in 2018 as a pc candidate but recently resigned his seat. Would of made for an interesting by election riding but since he left so close to election none was necessary. The ndp had planned to run a high profile candidate here , former ajax mayor Steve Parish but he was forced to drop out of the race due to past comments. Its unclear who there new candidate is. Patrice Barnes is the new pc candidate and Amber Bowen liberal candidate. Swing area but has been more pc friendly provincially than federally over the years.
26/03/22 seasaw
Thought with Rod Phillips gone,this would be a Liberal riding, however, the PC's have nominated Patrice Barnes, a school board trustee, with some name recognition, while the Liberals have nominated Amber Bowen, an elementary school teacher, so it's anybody's race
26/02/22 QuebecCityOliver
Just to confirm that on Jan. 14, 2022 - it was confirmed that Rod Phillips would not be running again in Ajax.
Here are the relevant quotes:
?€?I have always considered public service a privilege and it has been an honour to serve as the MPP for Ajax and in three cabinet porfolios,?€™ Phillips wrote in his statement.
?€?That said, my professional life has been spent in the business world and I look forward to returning to the private sector.?€™
15/01/22 seasaw
This is probably the most Liberal friendly riding in the area. With Rod Phillips not seeking re-election, the Liberal chances got that much better. The big problem for the Liberals is their leader, he hasn?€™t been inspiring and doesn?€™t seem to have the necessary charisma, so there is a good chance that he?€™ll totally bomb the campaign, if that were to happen, this will be a PC hold, if DelDuca runs a decent campaign and even if the Liberals were to become the official opposition, then, this riding is theirs.
12/01/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
Naturally this would seem like a Liberal riding, and up until yesterday I would have been confident in predicting that. However with former long term mayor Steve Parish announced as the NDP candidate, it makes the results a lot less predictable. Now its mostly flow of the election, if the NDP can stay ahead of the liberals in the polls, they have a good shot of winning this, and the opposite could be said for the liberals, where a lead in the polls would have them win this. It's likely Rod Phillips won't want to go down in defeat, so if he chooses not to run again, it would mean internal polls are not good, and same could be said for the opposite case. All in all, i have no clue how this seat will go.
13/10/21 Dr Bear
I am of the opinion that Ajax will return to the Liberal fold quite readily, provided that the NDP does not look poised to win government. The general attrition that the PC would have would give this the appearance of a three way race, however this just isn?€™t an NDP riding. A significant chunk of that support will migrate back to the liberals and should bring Ajax back into the Liberal fold.
09/08/21 Sam Beesley
Bizarre that this riding, that is one of the most vulnerable PC ridings, would be considered safe for the PCs - I'd say it's the most vulnerable of the four Durham ridings they hold. And one of the PC's greatest assets, the star quality of Rod Phillips, has all but evaporated now following his conduct issues. I have no doubt the Liberals will target this and I'd tip them to jump from third to first, but for now, judging it to be a three way race seems wise.
03/08/21 An informed Voter
Note above that comment needs to be fact checked. Please advise when and where Mr Phillips was supposed to have made that statement that he was not running in 2022. I think you are just spreading false hopes that you might have. He has never said that and he WILL be running for the PC's in the 2022 election Sorry spreader of false information
01/07/21 KXS
Not sure why this riding is currently projected for the PCs.
Rod Phillips received less than 40% of the vote last year under more favourable conditions. His only path to re-election is through a perfect split of the progressive vote.
10/06/21 Chris N
After the COVID vacation scandal, Rod Phillips stated that the will not run again in 2022. With his vacancy, I anticipate the NDP and Liberals see this as a possible pick-up.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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