Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:42:00

Constituency Profile


Angnakak, Pat

Idlout, Lori

Mackenzie, Laura


Mumilaaq Qaqqaq

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1877778.53 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mumilaaq Qaqqaq 386140.80%
Megan Pizzo Lyall 291830.90%
Leona Aglukkaq 246926.10%
Douglas Roy 2062.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hunter Tootoo 561947.10%
Jack Iyerak Anawak 317126.60%
Leona Aglukkaq ** 295624.80%
Spencer Rocchi 1821.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Physastr Master
These are hard to predict, and seeing as we usually don’t have many Nunavummiut on this site it’s hard to be well-informed here. I was one of the few that called this for the NDP last year, owing to the importance of the very large youth population here and the potential for Qaqqaq to rally that population. That’s exactly what happened, and given how popular Qaqqaq is she would no doubt win were she to run again. Of course, she famously is not, so we’ve got a race. While I don’t know much about the conservative, the Liberal is in the mold of the Iqaluit councilor they ran last time, and it’s hard to see Qaqqaq’s win against that Liberal and Leona as anything but a repudiation of that classic kind of politician. Lori Idlout isn’t quite the youth sensation Qaqqaq is, but she seems to have the sort of history and story that has the same sort of ‘I’m just like you’ message that Qaqqaq thrived on. Nonetheless, given the recent history of the riding, I think the NDP are taking the right route to retain it, and Qaqqaq’s coattails will be strong here. I say NDP hold.
02/09/21 R.O.
Definitely too close to call , this riding has no incumbent as ndp mp Mumilaaq Qaqqaq didn’t run again. The riding has been liberal and conservative in recent elections . features a very small ballot with only 3 candidates approved by elections Canada . Pat Angnakak liberal , Laura Mckenzie conservative and Lori Idlout ndp. But is a massive riding in terms of geographic size despite its small population and small number of voters. The ndp win here in 2019 was largely seen as a surprise by many so unclear if there is a path for them to hold the seat or not.
24/08/21 Sam
It's not even about the partisan aspect, but I suspect the people of Nunavut, with their standard of living and Trudeau's handling of Indigenous and Northern Affairs, have other unresolved issues to care about than Mary Simon's appointment. And of course, the best representative here is not really clear in a way Qaqqaq was last time - though a former territorial legislator may have some name recognition. Either way, TCTC is the only reasonable call here.
21/08/21 A.S.
Given Qaqqaq being something of a single-term folk hero, I definitely wouldn't rule out coattails beyond the usual candidate-specific nature of Nunavut races. And besides, how deeply would Mary Simon's appointment register in *partisan* terms, even if it was a Justin appointment?
17/08/21 Marco Ricci
Pat Angnakak, MLA in the Nunavut Assembly, is the new Liberal candidate. This could help the Liberals win the seat, but the NDP also has a strong chance here.
12/08/21 Mizisuga
NDP is polling fairly well nationwide and the retiring incumbent Mumilaaq appears to be popular, so this will be a contest between NDP and Liberals, tilted towards the former.
11/07/21 Stevo
The appointment of Mary Simon to the Governor-General post and the NDP MP standing down should put the Liberals over the top in Nunavut.
22/05/21 Kyle H
With Qaqqaq sadly retiring, this riding will return to a pure tossup. Partisan labels up here don't matter match, it's the quality of candidates and how good the outreach is. Expect the Liberals to make a big push to get this back.
20/05/21 ME
The incumbent MP is declining to run and thus the NDP do not have a candidate . THis means the riding is up for grabs
18/05/21 Ariel Kaufmann
I would say this is safe, as long as the NDP incumbent remains the candidate. She relates to the majority of the population; far younger than the national average!

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