Election Prediction Project

Northwest Territories
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-07 23:09:32

Constituency Profile


Groenewegen, Jane

Kotchilea, Kelvin

Laufer, Roland

McLeod, Michael

Mollison, Lea Anne


Michael McLeod

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1143793.86 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael McLeod ** 646739.70%
Yanik D'Aigle 415725.50%
Mary Beckett 364022.30%
Paul Falvo 173110.60%
Luke Quinlan 2961.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael McLeod 917248.30%
Dennis Fraser Bevington ** 578330.50%
Floyd Roland 348118.30%
John Moore 5372.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 870.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Northwest Territories
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 Yellowknifer since 2009
The NDP will do better than in 2019 with a strong Indigenous candidate who will win over some of the previously Liberal Indigenous vote. The Conservative candidate, a woman from Thunder Bay who has apparently never been to the Northwest Territories and hasn't participated in a single debate or media interview, may achieve the feat of the lowest percent of the vote obtained by any Conservative candidate in the country. Most of the normally Conservative vote will probably go to Independent Jane Groenewegen, though a substantial number will stay home or spoil/refuse their ballot. A few disaffected centrist Liberals will probably vote for Groenewegen too. It'll be much closer than it was in 2019, but Michael McLeod will probably again prevail and be the only Liberal elected on a latitude between Vancouver and Winnipeg. I predict 34% for McLeod/Liberals, 32% for Kotchilea/NDP, 26% for Groenewegen, 4% for Mollison/Conservatives and 4% for Laufer/Greens.
22/08/21 Sam
Perhaps if any, the best reason not to call this for the Liberals is how early in the campaign it is, and the vast unpredictability of the riding. Though they're probably the safest bet in this fairly splintered riding, on vote share and incumbency alone.
The NDP's Kelvin Kotchilea delivered a respectable performance in a recent by-election, but beyond that he's unproven. It may be the case that the NDP try and do what they did in Nunavut - a young indigenous candidate who wants to offer a new style of representation, but Qaqqaq had the advantages of a younger riding and an open seat with no well-known Liberal.
21/08/21 A.S.
The only territorial incumbent remaining; and judging from past margins, seems like it *ought to be* somewhat status-quo safe versus a fragmented scenario. But still; a sub-40% share, so I'll hedge, particularly if campaign shifts don't seem to be going Justin's way.
06/08/21 J.F. Breton
La récente nomination de Mary Simon à titre de gouverneure générale ne devrait pas nuire à Trudeau dans cette circonscription libérale depuis 2015. Les Libéraux sont d'ailleurs en avance si on se fie à Canada338.
06/08/21 Branden
While incumbent Liberal Michael McLeod is running again, due to the more candidate focused campaigns in the territories this should be too close to call until the campaign is underway and the other candidates are chosen

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