Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-17 09:27:20

Constituency Profile


Dunlop, Barbara

Hanley, Brendan

Morris, Lenore

Smith, Jonas Jacot

Vollans-Leduc, Lisa


Larry Bagnell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



474712.68 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Larry Bagnell ** 703433.50%
Jonas Jacot Smith 688132.70%
Justin Lemphers 461722.00%
Lenore Morris 220110.50%
Joseph Zelezny 2841.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Bagnell 1088753.70%
Ryan Leef ** 492824.30%
Melissa Atkinson 394319.40%
Frank de Jong 5332.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

It was close last time, but the Liberals have a strong candidate with high name recognition in the chief territorial health director. Conservative vote will likely be split between the CPC candidate and independent Jonas Smith. Slight chance the NDP comes up the middle instead but this should be a fairly easy Liberal hold.
05/09/21 Diefenbakerblues
I was in the Yukon at the beginning of the election. Lots of people I talked to thought that Jonas Smith would retain a lot of his support running as an independent, as he has very tight connections with the mining community in the province. I think that will lead to a rough vote split for the Conservatives.
This means probably the Liberals will win, though many people I talked to weren't all that impressed with Dr. Brendan Hanley, the territory's chief medical officer, running for the Liberals. People viewed it as opportunistic, and aren't all that impressed with the Liberal government. Nonetheless, it will probably go Liberal unless the NDP gets a lot of traction, nationally, and in the territory.
25/08/21 R.O.
Long time mp Larry Bagnell isn’t running for re-election and 2019 conservative candidate Jonas Smith was dropped and now running as an independent . leading to one of the least predictable and bizarre races in the country. Feel that in the Yukon an incumbent would have had a significant advantage due to ridings size and small population. But not necessary a riding that would follow nationwide trends and could go its own way.
22/08/21 Marco Ricci
Former Conservative candidate Jonas Smith has announced that he will run as an Independent:
21/08/21 A.S.
Larry Bagnell's funny--underperforming whenever I called for him to overperform--and now we have an open seat and '19's CPC near-misser felled by covidiocy. And why not NDP as an eternal sometimes-strong/sometimes-weak post-Audrey sleeper factor--particularly as barely over 200 votes separated the combined NDP-Green from the other two major parties. (Oh, and the NDP won Dawson City w/barely over 30%, slightly over twice as much as the 4th-place Greens.)
14/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Conservative Party has removed Jonas Smith as their candidate because of his opposition to 'public health guidelines' on COVID-19. Meanwhile, Dr. Brendan Hanley, the chief medical officer for the Yukon, is the new Liberal candidate.
08/08/21 Stevo
Many competing factors here compared to other ridings. Long-time MP retiring. Liberals weak on First Nations issues, but Conservatives are weaker. Then again, FN only comprise 25% of Yukon's population vs 38% in NWT and 85% in Nunavut (for comparison, SK/MB FN proportion is 10-15%, with all other provinces lower). A significant bloc, but not necessarily decisive. Yukon doesn't seem to be driven by local candidates as much as NWT or Nunavut; Bagnell lost in 2011 and almost lost in 2019. Likely a close 3-way race.
06/08/21 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Larry Bagnell announced today that he has decided to retire:
This makes the race even more unpredictable and could help Conservative candidate Jonas Smith, who is running again after finishing a close 2nd in 2019.
24/05/21 Marco Ricci
After winning the Yukon by a huge margin in 2015, Larry Bagnell had a close call in 2019. This riding should probably be TCTC for now.
06/08/21 Thomas K
Yukon was the closest riding in Canada last time, and in the North elections seem to hinge on the quality of the candidates . I would say it's a 3-way race with a slight tilt for the Liberals now.

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