Election Prediction Project

Vancouver South
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:09:38

Constituency Profile


Cook, Anthony

Gill, Sukhbir Singh

Jamieson, Anne

McQuillan, Sean

Sajjan, Harjit S.


Harjit S. Sajjan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



20.70 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Harjit S. Sajjan ** 1780841.20%
Wai Young 1438833.30%
Sean McQuillan 801518.60%
Judy Zaichkowsky 24515.70%
Alain Deng 5321.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Harjit S. Sajjan 2177348.80%
Wai Young ** 1511533.90%
Amandeep Nijjar 623014.00%
Elain Ng 11492.60%
Charles Boylan 1780.40%
Raj Gupta 1660.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2020.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver South
   (95.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (4.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Philly D.
I'm not sure the Liberals can hold the riding given their BC numbers and that their margin is less than 3500 votes. Furthermore, Sajjan is not at all popular with Tories and as Defence Minister, Afghanistan may be a bit of an issue.
09/09/21 R.O.
Harjit Sajjan will likely hold this riding as he’s been mp since 2015 although many wondered if he’d stick around Ottawa after his time as defence minister and surprised he ran again.
08/09/21 George
Healthy Liberal lead from Mainstreet, 42 Lib to 27 NDP among decided voters.
25/08/21 A.S.
Actually, given polling, I *could* be on the edge of a no-prediction--after all, it was an under-10-point gap in '19, and it's the inner-Vancouver riding most affected by Richmond-style SinoCon. Except that Wai Young isn't running again, and her replacement isn't Chinese--indeed, we now have the odd situation of 2 Sikh candidates and a non-Sikh with a Sikh leader. I'll still momentarily vouch for the status quo--though given the '15-'19 rise in NDP share + Jagmeet being next door, we *could* have an unforeseen 3-way circumstance...
30/06/21 Negative Inference
Despite his trouble tenure as defence minister, Sajjan has put in the work locally. With higher profile and access to extra resources as a cabinet member, it would take a major Liberal meltdown for Sajjan to be in any danger.

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