Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Quadra
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:08:43

Constituency Profile


Abenes, Naden

Armstrong, Brad

Murray, Joyce

Siekmann, Renate

Singh, Devyani


Joyce Murray

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



40.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Joyce Murray ** 2209343.50%
Kathleen Dixon 1408227.70%
Leigh Kenny 768115.10%
Geoff Wright 630812.40%
Sandra Filosof-Schipper 4280.80%
Austen Erhardt 1620.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joyce Murray ** 3110258.70%
Blair Lockhart 1368325.80%
Scott Andrews 574810.90%
Kris Constable 22294.20%
Trevor Clinton Walper 860.20%
Marc Boyer 650.10%
Jean-François Caron 590.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Quadra
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/09/21 Thomas K
I'm going to go against the grain here and predict a conservative win, or at least a very close race. There's a very substantial visible support for the CPC candidate here in signs and from the people I've talked to. Joyce Murray isn't a particularly visible or competent MP, and her 2019 vote share mirrored her 2011 one, so I suspect even a modest decrease in Liberal support could put her in trouble.
25/08/21 A.S.
Here, too, as in Vancouver Centre, the '19 Liberal vote plummeted 15 points--putting at least a *bit* of a dent in Quadra's modern-day status as an electoral epigram of Laurentian/Brahmin Liberal Western Canada. Which makes one wonder about the unforeseen--that is, that Joyce Murray could be back to the knife-edge days of her first byelection victory if she doesn't watch out. But at least the Point Grey cancels out the Quilchena--or at least, the most efficient way to generate a CPC-compatible seat is to replace the present Vancouvers Quadra and Granville with perpendicular versions thereof. That is, if Quadra's out of reach, a federal Quilchena might *not* be.
23/08/21 Thomas K
I've noticed that, over a week into the election campaign, I have seen several Conservative and Green lawn signs here, and not a SINGLE Liberal lawn sign. Lawn signs may not always predict elections, but if people have the feeling that the Greens are stronger than the Liberals, I'm predicting that maybe the Tories and Green/NDP vote will eat more into Joyce's vote share than I had initially thought. Still not enough for her to lose though.
21/07/21 Thomas K
Easy Liberal hold for Joyce Murray, although she may again lose some more votes to the other parties, most likely the NDP, though the collapse of the Greens could potentially mitigate any such losses for the Liberals. In the 2020 BC election, Eby slightly lost support in this (similar area) riding while the NDP surged provincially, and I'm inclined to believe that Quadra will follow this pattern as the Liberals poll higher. This is the most highly educated riding in the country, and as a result will likely be much more immune to the more blatant acts of vote pandering that the Liberals have been doing in the GVA seats.
20/05/21 MF
Van-Quadra has been Liberal since 1984, including in the 2011 debacle. It's an upscale "Brahmin Liberal" riding and home to the University of British Columbia, with a West Coast green bent as well. NDP/Green support is concentrated in the northern "Point Grey" part of the riding, and there are some Conservative blue polls in the "Quilchena" part, but the Liberals are strong throughout. In some ways Quadra like a hybrid of Toronto's University-Rosedale and Don Valley West ridings, but in a West Coast setting.
05/05/21 JW
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.

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