Abenes, Naden
	Armstrong, Brad
	Murray, Joyce
	Siekmann, Renate
	Singh, Devyani
Incumbent:
	Joyce Murray

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105608 102416 50443 44741 40.34 km² 2617.60/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Joyce Murray **	22093	43.50%
	Kathleen Dixon	14082	27.70%
	Leigh Kenny	7681	15.10%
	Geoff Wright	6308	12.40%
	Sandra Filosof-Schipper	428	0.80%
	Austen Erhardt	162	0.30%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Joyce Murray **	31102	58.70%
	Blair Lockhart	13683	25.80%
	Scott Andrews	5748	10.90%
	Kris Constable	2229	4.20%
	Trevor Clinton Walper	86	0.20%
	Marc Boyer	65	0.10%
	Jean-François Caron	59	0.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		16953	36.43%
		6722	14.45%
		20227	43.47%
		2629	5.65%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Vancouver Quadra    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	06/09/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
I'm going to go against the grain here and predict a conservative win, or at least a very close race. There's a very substantial visible support for the CPC candidate here in signs and from the people I've talked to. Joyce Murray isn't a particularly visible or competent MP, and her 2019 vote share mirrored her 2011 one, so I suspect even a modest decrease in Liberal support could put her in trouble.
	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
Here, too, as in Vancouver Centre, the '19 Liberal vote plummeted 15 points--putting at least a *bit* of a dent in Quadra's modern-day status as an electoral epigram of Laurentian/Brahmin Liberal Western Canada. Which makes one wonder about the unforeseen--that is, that Joyce Murray could be back to the knife-edge days of her first byelection victory if she doesn't watch out. But at least the Point Grey cancels out the Quilchena--or at least, the most efficient way to generate a CPC-compatible seat is to replace the present Vancouvers Quadra and Granville with perpendicular versions thereof. That is, if Quadra's out of reach, a federal Quilchena might *not* be.
	23/08/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
I've noticed that, over a week into the election campaign, I have seen several Conservative and Green lawn signs here, and not a SINGLE Liberal lawn sign. Lawn signs may not always predict elections, but if people have the feeling that the Greens are stronger than the Liberals, I'm predicting that maybe the Tories and Green/NDP vote will eat more into Joyce's vote share than I had initially thought. Still not enough for her to lose though.
	21/07/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
Easy Liberal hold for Joyce Murray, although she may again lose some more votes to the other parties, most likely the NDP, though the collapse of the Greens could potentially mitigate any such losses for the Liberals. In the 2020 BC election, Eby slightly lost support in this (similar area) riding while the NDP surged provincially, and I'm inclined to believe that Quadra will follow this pattern as the Liberals poll higher. This is the most highly educated riding in the country, and as a result will likely be much more immune to the more blatant acts of vote pandering that the Liberals have been doing in the GVA seats.
	20/05/21	MF 65.92.13.223
Van-Quadra has been Liberal since 1984, including in the 2011 debacle. It's an upscale "Brahmin Liberal" riding and home to the University of British Columbia, with a West Coast green bent as well. NDP/Green support is concentrated in the northern "Point Grey" part of the riding, and there are some Conservative blue polls in the "Quilchena" part, but the Liberals are strong throughout. In some ways Quadra like a hybrid of Toronto's University-Rosedale and Don Valley West ridings, but in a West Coast setting.
	05/05/21	JW 45.41.168.96
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.