Election Prediction Project

North Island-Powell River
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:07:05

Constituency Profile


Blaney, Rachel

Downey, Shelley

Gastis, Stacey

Grenz, Jennifer

Macknight, Paul

Neal, Carla

Wegg, Jessica


Rachel Blaney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



53659.67 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rachel Blaney ** 2383437.90%
Shelley Downey 2050232.60%
Mark de Bruijn 889114.10%
Peter Schwarzhoff 825113.10%
Brian Rundle 11021.80%
Glen Staples 2870.50%
Carla Neal 480.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rachel Blaney 2434040.20%
Laura Smith 1584026.20%
Peter Schwarzhoff 1541625.50%
Brenda Sayers 49408.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3670.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Island North
   (81.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (18.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
Parallels my Courtenay-Alberni non-prediction; the Cons a little too close for comfort--and it would have been even more dangerously close without the mainland stuff like Powell River; plus, the Cons won both the advance and the special ballots. There's no longer any doubt whether Jagmeet would ‘sell’ to this kind of resource-economy territory; of more concern now is *O'Toole's* bid to appeal to that economic class--plus, it's a rematch.
17/08/21 Walnut
Blaney is well established here and clearly the favourite to win the riding. The Greens are running a decent candidate with Jessica Wegg so expect them to challenge the Conservatives for second place.
I think the NDP will retain this seat. the Conservatives came up short here in 2019 even though they swept through rest of western Canada.

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