Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
|Jody Wilson-Raybould **
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(34.83% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(27.19% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(19.47% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(18.51% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|The Liberals are NOT GOING TO WIN HERE! It would be either the Conservatives or NDP before Taleeb could win. Young people either won't show up to vote, or will vote NDP, and that will put the Conservatives over the top. I'm confident it will not be the liberal--less confident between NDP vs Conservative.|
|BC is experiencing an NDP surge at the Liberals expense, coupled with the LPC candidate receiving unfriendly press.|
I know the CPC are still spending large on literature and what not in this riding, but I think the CPC won't overtake the Singh BC Surge.
At a minimum, the amount of negative literature filling up mail boxes, will discourage non motivated Liberal voter from voting.
|I'm fairly certain now that Taleeb won't win here. He may get a few votes in the Shaugnessy portion, but I see low voter turnout, strong NDP showing, and a conservative win here for the reasons I outlined below.|
|The way that I see it the LIB vote has a base of 14k - see 2019. A solid one considering a star liberal candidate of JWR switched to become independent post SCN-Lavalin. The CON had a possible base of 14k see 2015 with some 5k jumping to JWR in 19. The NDP 14k vote from 15 reduced to 7k with the other 7k going to JWR in 19. |
Going to this election with JWR gone, the base vote of the 3 parties will be about 14k each. That leaves about 7k who voted LIB in 15 and JWR in 19 and possible 1-2k that did not vote before and came out to support JWR in the high profile 19 race. The question is where will these 7k votes go? Some will probably stay home. I cannot see the CON win here. CON can only win if the vote split quite evenly between LIB and NDP AND they gain from some LIB-to-JWR voters. Although I can see some of these voter change to NDP, most of them are LIB type voter who will either vote LIB or not vote. The city hall, Vancouver General Hospital area have more LIB to NDP swing voters - see provincial election. But once you get to the southern part, it is more LIB to CON voters. The NDP did not do well here even in the massive provincial 2020 win in these part of Vancouver. My guess all 3 party will have their vote total go up, but LIB will win in a tight 1-2k vote margin 3 way race.
|My first prediction preceded the revelations about the Liberal house flipping, and It now really cannot be understated how awful of a candidate Taleeb Noormohamed is. Housing affordability is THE issue in Vancouver, and it's really the only reason that saw metro Vancouver get swept by the BC NDP in 2017 and even more so in 2020. House flipping is about the worst sin one can commit in this riding, and that bodes very poorly for the Liberals here. Young people aren't exactly well-known for tracking local controversies like this, but as someone that has lived in this riding I can say with confidence that these stories are indeed widely known by voters and are having an impact. That said, this is one of those ‘Liberal Supercoalition’ ridings where the liberals could be expected to narrowly lose pretty much every individual polling place but be the only party competitive everywhere and still win the riding, possibly even more so than Hedy's personal fiefdom of Vancouver Centre. The Liberals have a natural position of strength here, but JWR's win last election resets the dynamic enough to dull that advantage. |
Taleeb's missteps will hurt badly in the young corners of the riding - i.e. the area along broadway and the southern edge Marpole where the NDP is competitive. These are the same places where JWR won and where there are a lot of votes up for grabs. That said, there is one group that doesn't care about a candidate house-flipping: the rich folk in Shaughnessy. This is even better for the NDP because it ensures the Liberals stay strong there and that the conservatives can't rack up large margins in the one place where they should be able to. Then the question comes down to where JWR's vote goes. My suspicion is that the Liberals willing to protest Trudeau already flipped to JWR in 2019 and won't be inclined to go back now that the revelations about Taleeb have emerged. I'm expecting very little movement to the Liberals as a result. The NDP should take most of the JWR vote, especially given JWR herself seems to be implying NDP support right after releasing her book. Since this is a young riding I do expect some PPC vote there, especially in the people that voted JWR as a protest vote for maximal annoyance of Trudeau. Some will go conservative too, but not as many. My biggest concern to block an NDP win is the PPC gobbling more of the JWR protest vote than expected, which is possible given the young population here and growth of PPC among young people. That said, polling aggregator tooclosetocall.ca agrees with this conclusion, and I don't think they include a ‘Taleeb being awful’ fudge factor. I therefore think the Liberal campaign here is disastrous enough and the NDP campaign is strong enough for this to go NDP, although realistically all three parties have a nonzero chance.
|The Liberals picked up this newly created riding in 2015 for a reason, and odds are they'll hold onto it following JWR's retirement. However, the NDP are probably in the running here for two reasons: Taleeb Noormohammed's bad press connected to his past house speculation is obviously not a great look for a city with a housing market as overheated as Vancouver's. JWR herself has also been playing footsie with the NDP candidate (see: https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1436821848147341316) and her personal popularity may tip the scale in Anjali Appadurai's favour, who should at least match Mira Oreck's 2015 numbers.|
|This area has by and large voted Liberal for a long time. The were competitive in 2019 but the NDP and Green vote went competitively for JWR. No JWR and her vote will split between the Liberals and NDP. That will put the Liberals on top once the dust settles. CPC are down four points in BC relative to 2019, so they are not winning this seat.|
|This is the Cons' best shot in a very long time in getting a seat in the city of Vancouver, though one must remember that the Libs have owned this seat since 1984 (Raybould being a Liberal who fell out with the leader but still loyal to the party until she was kicked out).|
|Aside from stating the obvious that this used to be Judy Wilson Raybolds riding. Another though comes to mind did the liberals make the mistake of picking the wrong candidate in what would appear to be a liberal leaning riding. Taleeb Noormohamed was already rejected by the voters of this riding in 2019 but the liberals decided to give him a second chance. Then it was revealed he personally profited off the Vancouver housing crisis by selling homes he never lived in for resale. Not exactly an inspiring candidate when compared to the former mp but its still a liberal area so maybe it won’t matter to some voters or its enough to give cpc candidate Kaitlin Lee or ndp candidate Anjali Appadurai a shot here.|
|If people wanted to vote for Taleeb, they could have in ‘19. I believe the split of JWR votes will break in favour of the CPC. Taleeb’s recent notoriety as a serial house-flipper can’t be helpful either.|
|Full disclosure; I live in this riding, and in general, people, especially young people, feel really betrayed that the average price of a house here is basically nearly $2 million, even ignoring the Shaughnessy portion. My point is that housing is a major issue in this riding. |
The recent revelation that the Liberal candidate, who already has a blue grit ‘tech bro’ ethos, is a serial house flipper is going to be extremely bad for his appeal in this riding, which has already seen its fair share of competition and attention with JWR in its short existence since 2015. Housing seems to be one of those issues that has the capacity to arouse a lot of anger, which is unique considering it isn't really affiliated with the typical kinds of issues that harness ‘anger’ in a populist sort of way. I think for a lot of people here, that seeing the Liberal candidate has been so actively engaged in using the housing crisis for personal financial gain, will create a visceral response and will be a total deal breaker.
The fact this riding elected Jody Wilson Raybould is also a testament to this riding holding some value for the personal characteristics of the candidates and not just their party affiliations, which works against the Liberal here.
Many JWR voters, and some Liberals will vote for the NDP, who is running a candidate with a decent profile, but I don't think they are quite in reach of winning the riding. However, I think it is quite likely the Conservatives will squeeze through the middle and win this by a narrow margin with the NDP and Liberals in a close race for 2nd. May be a bold prediction for now--things seem to be changing every week, especially for Vancouver Granville.
|This is an interesting one. I used to live in this riding, and I was surprised on election night in 2019 at how many votes the NDP retained, given that nearly every NDP supporter I knew there was voting for JWR. Some conservatives probably voted for her too, but my guess is that wasn't as common, as she has a pretty progressive profile, so conservative votes for JWR are cast in spite of her record, whereas the NDP and JWR were aligned on most issues, making NDPers voting for her much more natural. The conservatives will gain votes without JWR, but this is a very educated riding that just doesn't favor them demographically, so my guess is they'll see a pretty hard ceiling around 30-somthing percent. So if the Cons gain 10-ish percent from JWR and the remaining votes are from various progressives disgruntled with the Liberals, which I think would go mainly NDP, this seems 3-way competitive. Given the underwhelming trendlines in BC I'd say the Liberals have the edge now, but it's close enough to keep in TCTC. Also note that New Democrats were panicking over downright apocalyptic Mainstreet Polls last election and they almost all greatly underestimated NDP support, so treat those with caution. National and regional trends seem more reliable given history.|
|I very much agree that, far from being ‘too wealthy’ (a la Quadra, I presume), this riding should be seen as absolutely in play for the NDP--after all, they finished 2nd and ahead of the Cons in '15, and were very much in contention to win were it not for Justinmania giving JWR that good, solid push to the top. And that the NDP (and Green, for that matter) vote was so low in '19 had a lot to do w/JWR soaking up those votes as a big-tent promiscuous-progressive-proxy folk hero. And hard to determine whether, in Puglaas's absence, Taleeb has *that* quality--though he might be better positioned to absorb yuppie vote leakage to the Cons (and given how well *they* did in the Shaughnessy-to-Marpole zone--as opposed to being a 4th-party force in the N of the riding--maybe *they* should be monitored, too, in the increasingly plausible event that O'Toole pulls ahead. Keeping in mind, too, that they won within these boundaries in '11.)|
|Mainstreet Research poll August 5|
|Actually, I think this isn't 100% in the bag for the Liberals yet. If the NDP nominates a stellar candidate and if the Conservatives nominate a moderate who splits the vote with the generic right-of-centre liberal candidate, this riding is very achievable for the NDP. The makeup of this riding is quite odd--lots of renters in mid-density apartments in the Northern part, with Shaugnessy in the middle and low density middle class residential in the South. It may be too early to predict, but I have a feeling there could be a three-way race here.|
|Sadly, it is likely the Liberals will pick this up again. The Liberal candidate has a resume that would appeal to the posh Shaugnessy elite of this riding.|
|Even with JWR in the race, the Liberal candidate, Taleeb, would have likely won given the current climate. Now this makes it a foregone conclusion. He is an impressive candidate and not to be underestimated with a good track record and a solid CV. I didn’t vote for him last time (supported JWR) but took a long look at him and was quite impressed. He’ll have my vote this time and would have last time too, but for Trudeau.|
|With Jody Wilson-Raybould's announcement that she won't seek re-election, the Liberals become the clear favourite here.|
|Wilson-Raybold has announced she is not running in the next election. This leaves a big opening for the Liberals and Conservatives to pick up this vacant seat. In the absence of an independent candidate to replace JWR, I can't help but wonder if Wilson-Raybold could endorse the Green or NDP candidate as a final swipe at the Liberals.|
|With JWR out, her vote should coalesce back around her former party again. Greens are in disarray, the riding is too wealthy for the NDP to be a viable option and without enough of a left wing split the Conservatives will be unlikely to make up the difference. Almost certainly a Liberal gain.|
|Jody Wilson-Raybould announced that she will not run in the next election:|
The Liberals are probably now favoured to win back this seat.
|And with Raybould now announcing she's not running this is an easy Liberal pickup.|
|JWR is not standing again and thus the riding will go back to the Liberals|
|I supported JwR in the last election as I was unhappy with the Trudeau government and thought she might end up holding influence in a minority parliament. Despite the SNC she only won by 3% when her popularity was at height. Since the election she has been invisible from the riding, spending most of her time on the Island. Her national profile may be interesting to the media but The pulse on the ground is that she has not been a presence in the community, at all. On the other hand it seems that the Liberal campaign and Candidate have been calling voters, doing outreach and the Trudeau government has actually been beneficial to many in Granville who have received the CERB or CeWS and of course the vaccines have been a great boon. So I think that while it may be close, a hard working campaign by a strong liberal candidate and a much better sentiment towards the Libs is more than likely enough to deliver Granville to the Liberals. If she does not run; then this should be an easy liberal win based on the historical tendency of the riding.|
|Independent MPs in Canada have limited shelf lives. Those who manage to win once or even twice (for example John Nunziata and André Arthur, respectively) are eventually swept aside. I think Chuck Cadman too would have lost his re-election bid as an independent had he lived to run in 2006. Voters rarely reward honesty and integrity, and I'm inclined to think JWR will follow the same path to defeat as prior independent MPs. This seat is a complete toss-up. It is conceiveable that even the Conservatives could win through a 4-way split on the left.|
|JWR won this seat with just over 32% of the vote last time -- which is nothing. With a level of overall support that low, she is, despite her margin of victory, one of the most marginal MPs: even if she wins back every single voter she had last time, if a relatively small number of votes shift between the other parties, she could easily find herself underwater.|
With that in mind, in a roundabout sort of way I feel like JWR is most vulnerable to the Conservatives. I don't think the Conservatives will win this seat, but if they do well, they'll deny the Liberals an opportunity to mop up enough votes to defeat her. And if they do poorly, the Liberals may collect enough votes to win.
Why not the Liberals? Well, if we get the mooted late-summer/autumn election, it certainly feels like the Liberals intend to bring their renewed focus on Indigenous reconciliation to the fore, especially in regions like the Lower Mainland, where it plays quite well. But this is an argument which won't work against JWR: she's perfectly positioned to counter so many of these arguments, to a point that Liberals talking about the issue at all arguably benefits her. It's still a winning issue at the regional level, but in Granville it plays right into her hands.
With all this in mind, I'm not making a confident prediction, but I am giving her the benefit of the doubt: she's a strong incumbent, she's uniquely suited to these specific electoral circumstances, and -- if she runs -- Puglaas certainly has the inside track.