Election Prediction Project

Vancouver East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:08:35

Constituency Profile


Buday, G?l?k

Francis, Mauro

Hale, Natasha

Kwan, Jenny

Litzcke, Karin

Matthew, Cheryl

Vander Vies, Josh


Jenny Kwan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.53 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jenny Kwan ** 2923652.60%
Kyle Demes 1008518.10%
Bridget Burns 806214.50%
Chris Corsetti 672412.10%
Karin Litzcke 6791.20%
Gölök Z Buday 5621.00%
Peter Marcus 1770.30%
Anne Jamieson 860.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jenny Kwan 2931649.90%
Edward Wong 1653228.20%
James Low 632210.80%
Wes Regan 53959.20%
Peter Marcus 5250.90%
D. Alex Millar 2160.40%
Anne Jamieson 2140.40%
Shawn Vulliez 1880.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3180.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver East
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Jake H.
Jenny Kwan will retain this seat in a cake walk. In fact, this may be the NDP's most guaranteed win in the province - possibly even safer than Jagmeet's.
It's been an NDP hold since 1961 other than two blips (1974-1979 and 1993-1997). Kwan is popular and the NDP haven't just been winning in Vancouver East, they've been crushing the competition since 2000.
Expect more of the same this time around. Safe NDP hold.
25/08/21 A.S.
Given how many of today's Vancouver East gentrifiers are ‘fashionably left’ by way of lifestyle choice--not unlike, as one poster indicated, how the Steinbach version of ‘multiculturalism’ hasn't affected *its* electoral profile--I wouldn't sweat it over gentrification adversely affecting the NDP character of the riding. Besides, in '19, only 5 polls went non-NDP: a condofied Liberal quartet E of Downtown, and a CPC-by-one-vote poll at the Burnaby edge--and the fact that none of the other parties hit 20% illuminates the state of mutual cancellation here.
23/08/21 R.O.
Long time ndp riding in metro Vancouver , current mp Jenny Kwan first elected in 2015 and likely she holds onto this one.
04/08/21 Laurence Putnam
The NDP have held this for 8 elections in a row now with nary a close call. As to the earlier point about gentrification, even if centre or centre-right voters are moving in to the area, I doubt if they'd even take the time to vote given the overall vibe in the area. This riding has not suffered an NDP loss federally or provincially in almost 30 years. With the Green Party splintering apart, Jenny Kwan has a good chance to run her numbers back up towards the 60% mark here.
31/07/21 Thomas K
The Vancouver gentrification trend is nowhere near strong enough in this riding to have any significant impact on the NDP's support. This area has suffered a lot during the pandemic, and will 100% be returning Jenny Kwan to parliament.
08/06/21 Stevo
This used to be the safest NDP seat in the country, but with Vancouver's housing bubble pushing into the east end and gentrifying it, it is perhaps no longer so. Still safe enough especially with high profile MP Jenny Kwan.
05/05/21 JW
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.

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