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Vancouver Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:22:11

Constituency Profile


Cockell, Harry

Fry, Hedy

Ouellette, Breen

Paivarinta, Alaric

Singleton-Fookes, Taylor


Hedy Fry

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11.13 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Hedy Fry ** 2359942.20%
Breen Ouellette 1328023.70%
David Cavey 1078219.30%
Jesse Brown 700212.50%
Louise Kierans 7241.30%
John Clarke 3790.70%
Lily Bowman 1420.30%
Imtiaz Popat 380.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hedy Fry ** 3255456.10%
Constance Barnes 1161820.00%
Elaine Allan 981816.90%
Lisa Barrett 33705.80%
John Clarke 6141.10%
Michael Hill 740.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6221.50%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Marco Ricci
Stevo makes an interesting point below -- luck can sometimes run out for even successful long-term incumbents. Recent examples include former Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale in 2019 in Saskatchewan and former BQ Leader Gilles Duceppe in 2011 in Quebec. However, given that Hedy Fry survived the Ignatieff disaster in 2011 and that Liberal numbers are holding up a lot better in B.C. this time, odds are Fry will win one more time.
11/09/21 Physastr Master
This really shouldn't be a safe Liberal riding, the West End is one of the NDP's safest ridings provincially mainly due to a young population, which bodes well for the NDP, and False Creek is nowhere near right-wing enough to lock this in for the Liberals. But somehow Hedy keeps holding on against all odds. It's kind of maddening really, but the current swings seem insufficient to make this competitive. If Hedy manages to achieve immortality I do believe she'll lose eventually, probably in a squeaker against a party with under 30% support during an election where none of us expect it to flip. I would love for that year to be this one, but probably not.
25/08/21 A.S.
The ‘all-but-certain comedown’ I predicted for Queen Hedy in '19 did, indeed, come to pass--she slid 14 points; however, the party which gained the most from that jettisoning was the 4th-place Greens. And Green + NDP combined came 6 points short of Hedy--though given the Greens' distinct identity within Vancouver politics, it's not like there actually *would* be such a unified front. Still, there's something oddly, inherently ‘Jagmeet-loving’ about Vancouver Centre--well, part of it, anyway; though that might as well be cancelled out by the condo part (and still, in '19, the Cons were capable of winning False Creek/Coal Harbour polls). When all is said and done, it's but a big-tent Liberal ‘coalition mandate’ much as you might find in downtown Toronto; it's just that Hedy makes it seem larger than life. (Then again, such big-tentism is harder to come by in Vancouver. Thus comedown-mode Hedy won w/a lower share than *any* Toronto Liberal, Julie Dzerowicz in Davenport not excluded.)
22/08/21 Stevo
I sense this one is ripe for an upset. If the Liberal polling advantage persists in BC, then Hedy Fry will win her 875th race. But if the Liberals drop to their traditional 3rd place showing in BC (the trajectory right now is not favourable to them), I can see the NDP surging in the final days of the campaign to take this. At this point Hedy Fry, like Carolyn Bennett, is just hanging on for vanity and ego. The good people of Vancouver-Centre may decide not to reward that again.
19/08/21 R.O.
Would expect a liberal hold here but certainly wasn’t expecting Hedy Fry to run again at some point you have to pass the torch to someone else.
07/05/21 Chris N
This riding is BC's safest Liberal seat. Hedy Fry even held on during the low polling Dion and Ignatieff years. I have no doubt she will win again.
06/08/21 Thomas K
Once Hedy Fry retires, this riding could be in serious contention for the NDP--perhaps her city councillor son would run under the Liberal banner? But until then, it remains a relatively safe Liberal seat.

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