Cockell, Harry
	Fry, Hedy
	Ouellette, Breen
	Paivarinta, Alaric
	Singleton-Fookes, Taylor
Incumbent:
	Hedy Fry

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			116443 102480 77272 70079 11.13 km² 10466.50/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Hedy Fry **	23599	42.20%
	Breen Ouellette	13280	23.70%
	David Cavey	10782	19.30%
	Jesse Brown	7002	12.50%
	Louise Kierans	724	1.30%
	John Clarke	379	0.70%
	Lily Bowman	142	0.30%
	Imtiaz Popat	38	0.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Hedy Fry **	32554	56.10%
	Constance Barnes	11618	20.00%
	Elaine Allan	9818	16.90%
	Lisa Barrett	3370	5.80%
	John Clarke	614	1.10%
	Michael Hill	74	0.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		10828	26.05%
		10951	26.35%
		12895	31.03%
		6268	15.08%
Other		622	1.50%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Vancouver Centre    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	18/09/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Stevo makes an interesting point below -- luck can sometimes run out for even successful long-term incumbents. Recent examples include former Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale in 2019 in Saskatchewan and former BQ Leader Gilles Duceppe in 2011 in Quebec. However, given that Hedy Fry survived the Ignatieff disaster in 2011 and that Liberal numbers are holding up a lot better in B.C. this time, odds are Fry will win one more time.
	11/09/21	Physastr Master 72.182.100.229
This really shouldn't be a safe Liberal riding, the West End is one of the NDP's safest ridings provincially mainly due to a young population, which bodes well for the NDP, and False Creek is nowhere near right-wing enough to lock this in for the Liberals. But somehow Hedy keeps holding on against all odds. It's kind of maddening really, but the current swings seem insufficient to make this competitive. If Hedy manages to achieve immortality I do believe she'll lose eventually, probably in a squeaker against a party with under 30% support during an election where none of us expect it to flip. I would love for that year to be this one, but probably not.
	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
The ‘all-but-certain comedown’ I predicted for Queen Hedy in '19 did, indeed, come to pass--she slid 14 points; however, the party which gained the most from that jettisoning was the 4th-place Greens. And Green + NDP combined came 6 points short of Hedy--though given the Greens' distinct identity within Vancouver politics, it's not like there actually *would* be such a unified front. Still, there's something oddly, inherently ‘Jagmeet-loving’ about Vancouver Centre--well, part of it, anyway; though that might as well be cancelled out by the condo part (and still, in '19, the Cons were capable of winning False Creek/Coal Harbour polls). When all is said and done, it's but a big-tent Liberal ‘coalition mandate’ much as you might find in downtown Toronto; it's just that Hedy makes it seem larger than life. (Then again, such big-tentism is harder to come by in Vancouver. Thus comedown-mode Hedy won w/a lower share than *any* Toronto Liberal, Julie Dzerowicz in Davenport not excluded.)
	22/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
I sense this one is ripe for an upset. If the Liberal polling advantage persists in BC, then Hedy Fry will win her 875th race. But if the Liberals drop to their traditional 3rd place showing in BC (the trajectory right now is not favourable to them), I can see the NDP surging in the final days of the campaign to take this. At this point Hedy Fry, like Carolyn Bennett, is just hanging on for vanity and ego. The good people of Vancouver-Centre may decide not to reward that again.
	19/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Would expect a liberal hold here but certainly wasn’t expecting Hedy Fry to run again at some point you have to pass the torch to someone else.
	07/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
This riding is BC's safest Liberal seat. Hedy Fry even held on during the low polling Dion and Ignatieff years. I have no doubt she will win again.
	06/08/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
Once Hedy Fry retires, this riding could be in serious contention for the NDP--perhaps her city councillor son would run under the Liberal banner? But until then, it remains a relatively safe Liberal seat.